2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[AncestralDemocrat.]

FWIW, that’s an improvement for Dems from the last YouGov LV poll, although it’s probably statistical noise.

It's not.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1580188929298685955?t=mCe6cSlUHwOcsq0J...

The CBS poll is separate from their usual releases.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1583111794683392000?t=-MYCoJwLHwVnyQUkM...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

So we've got numerous polls that seem to be settling around a 2 to 4+ R environment.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1583115763447365632?t=xumyK8ws6bS0ZxqCX...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

Basic cost of living issues are always going to trump hyperbolic statements about democracy being in terminal decline, or whatever..

Most people don't care.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

Basic cost of living issues are always going to trump hyperbolic statements about democracy being in terminal decline, or whatever..

Most people don't care.

One must also consider though that the GOP has put forward no solutions to solving said cost of living issues.

A fair criticism.. but given there's currently a democratic trifecta, most of the blame is obviously going to be shifted in one direction.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1583398910432641025?t=0scZsLwL0gio1tg6...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It seems like one person in this thread is really trying to nitpick all of the recent polls showing Republicans gaining. Are we seriously still in a neutral environment? The polls would have to be biased in favor of the Republicans for that to be the case, and that would be a complete reversal of the pattern in recent years.

Whether it be RV or LV, one clear direction in the last week.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I'm not doubting anything, I'm just saying polls are currently all over the place.

Best to go by the 538 average, which is about R+0.3 right now. I'm not saying that's not believable.

However, there's a certain group of people in this thread who want to go wild every time there's an R+6 poll or something.

The 538 average is R+ 0.3 due to the fact they include literal polls of adults such as Ipsos with about 30% undecided, which slants the average.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I'm not doubting anything, I'm just saying polls are currently all over the place.

Best to go by the 538 average, which is about R+0.3 right now. I'm not saying that's not believable.

However, there's a certain group of people in this thread who want to go wild every time there's an R+6 poll or something.

The 538 average is R+ 0.3 due to the fact they include literal polls of adults such as Ipsos, which slants the average.

At least they take *all* polls in. RCP clearly slants the average, and that's why it's R+3 in their average.

Taking all polls in, particularly in regards to generic ballot, with three weeks to the election doesn't give you an accurate picture of the environment.

It's why the averages consistently have huge misses.. when you give the same weighting to polls of adults with huge percentage of undecideds over LV and to a lesser extent RV.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

Jesus.. the wishcasting is incredibly strong.

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

When does the NBC poll come out

NBC has 47-46 D with RV and 48-47 R with LV. Not really any change from prior polls. Gives GOP a big enthusiasm edge though.

Seems pretty consistent with a lot of the polls that we've gotten that are like D+1/tied among RV and like R+1/R+2 among LV.

The irony of this poll is that it's gone from R+2 in Aug, tied in Sept, and now D+1 in October among RV. Bidens approval also unchanged from last month (45/52). Makes you wonder if a lot of the whole "the environment has changed" is overblown.

Yes it's overblown because one poll meets your priors and every other pollster shows a shift to republicans.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1584954542202191873?t=AeCveOKoqUBBCYjcuPd...

Clearly a sign of a D+3 environment.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1584954542202191873?t=AeCveOKoqUBBCYjcuPd...
Clearly a sign of a D+3 environment.

Tbf Smith is an atrocious candidate and Garcia quite strong. It boggles my mind how she won the nomination three times in a row, is the Dem bench in Antelope Valley really that weak?

The district got a few points bluer in redistricting compared to 2020.. Simi valley removed.. Garcia literally voting like he's in Alabama.

Yet they're triaging ? lol.

Doesn't suggest confidence to me.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Maybe they're trying to be clever by claiming it's because he's allegedly strong, when they have internals showing him actually losing and in fact Smith doesn't need the money.

Yes, I forgot..

Even when PAC's go dark in double digit Biden R districts, it's ultimately good news for dems.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1584954542202191873

Clearly a sign of a D+3 environment.

Looking at individual districts to try and paint a narrative is silly.

Peltola is very likely to win Alaska at-large again. Does that mean we're clearly not in an R+3 or more environment?

Alaska is quite a unique case in that Murk, Palin and various wings of the Alaskan Republican Party are literally endorsing Peltola.. plus there's RCV.

As I'm sure you know.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1585581558966132738?s=19

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1586035393081638912?t=RMMXjCkCwxplVAVYZVV...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1586749301820166147?t=udW5tkbBcYvWZcnTG...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1586749301820166147?t=udW5tkbBcYvWZcnTG...

I don’t believe this or the right wing WA-SEN polls.  We have actual numbers from June (when the generic ballot was worse than now) where Brownley got 54%.  I don’t expect she does worse than that in a week.

I mean it's fine believing what fits your priors and ignoring present data/warnings from democratic operatives.. that's part of being a partisan.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1586804261874188288?t=1b9fNTpBNAjtUx4e...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1586789028501901316
LOL RCP is a joke

This is all a conservative journalist project, not anything serious.

Given they have Utah as lean R as well, how is it a conservative journalist project.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1587759465801072640?t=Ec19gzzShuNsokqWUKd...

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1587751791395045376?t=NUM_1qnF54v9_QUqJBW...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1587827254482145284?t=xizXmMMthFrp6q5Ti...