2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Devils30]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

I agree with this. Democratic leaders, strategists, and donors certainly are not on the "offensive", and are not acting as if they are leading the Generic Ballot right now. Yet there are still people who insist that Democrats are winning and that they are poised to sweep the elections in a few weeks.

Quite frankly, even if the Democrats were leading on the GCB right now, they would never be "acting" like it in public, especially after so many polling errors in the past. Even if the Dems were up by 10, there would still be an entire aura of "is it even real?"

Plainly, these days, because people are so burned by polls, only a Republican lead among polls is to be trusted. Even a Dem is leading, there is still whispers of, "but are they really?"

The Democratic campaigns are probably seeing concerning numbers in their own internals, and are acting accordingly. I would expect for there to be a much more aggressive investment of Democratic time, money, and resources into Republican-leaning districts and states if they truly felt that they held a dominating lead in the Generic Ballot. Instead - aside from the Hofmeister-Stitt rate in Oklahoma and the Oz-Fetterman race in Pennsylvania - they are clearly on the defensive at this point, and are calling in national support for their candidates in states such as Oregon, New Mexico, and now, New York, which should not be in danger for them. I don't think we would be seeing Biden and Obama going to these states if they weren't concerned about those races.

Well there was also 2020, where Democrats were kind of fooled into thinking they should go for other GOP districts than they shouldn't have, so whether or not Dems have a lead, I think it's smart just to go for the ones that you absolutely need first and foremost. Even if you have a lead or not.

Oregon is a more specific case with the GOV race, they needed to nationalize it a bit to sink Johnson and scare Dem voters back into Kotek's column. Grisham may be in a bit of trouble, but most of the polls (sans Trafalgar) and the EV don't really indicate that, and Biden may still be relatively popular in New Mexico, so may not be a huge surprise he's going.

Is Biden planning on doing a rally in New York or something? I didn't see that. I saw he did an event with Hochul/Schumer yesterday, but that looked like more of the usual small-time stuff.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1586085207827890177?s=46&t=IQbLk_K4EEYQSm0QtNQP9A

I would like another round of polls. But is NV-1 just another Vegas polling problem? That might be ground zero for low response/transient population.

For NJ-7 I would like some proof, Kean has a lot of Christie’s political hacks around him with plenty of ties to national media for years.

Yeah, NV-01 is a good question. Siena undercounted Dems considerably in their 2018 NV poll, but it's possible that was an anomaly.

I'm unsure about NJ-07 too. Malinowski actually seems to be putting up a good fight. I feel like prior to the last few months, people assumed he was all but dead. He's raised way more than Kean, and the district is pretty educated. I'm not sure where the tangible signs are that he's struggling a lot.

It’s also the VA-2, PA-7, IA-3 polls that suggest maybe this thing isn’t quite over. After all this polarization it’s hard to buy this bifurcated NY OR RI being a wave but Dems holding on in swingier territory. We had that theory with the Molinaro +8 poll in NY-19 and the results were not exactly in line with it.

[Senator Cris]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1586716493177200641?s=20&t=RSXLK8_...

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1586716493177200641?s=20&t=RSXLK8_...

Pretty much the same thing they've had the last 3 months. It will be interesting if the Dems can actually keep it to a 13-16% GOP margin with whites. A lot of these recent polls have Dems getting only 77% with blacks but plenty of reason to be skeptical. You still see solid Dem numbers with moderates.

Also only 27% are age 45 and below, seems very very low.

[Brittain33]

NBC Exit polls found 2014 was an R+1 electorate (not environment). Interesting to see that in CBS, too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1586720670901223424

If there were actually a 218-217 result (either way), how long do you think it would take for that to be called, given slow counting in CA, NY, AK, possibly others?

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1586720670901223424

If there were actually a 218-217 result (either way), how long do you think it would take for that to be called, given slow counting in CA, NY, AK, possibly others?

Like 7.5 months!

[Person Man]

NBC Exit polls found 2014 was an R+1 electorate (not environment). Interesting to see that in CBS, too.

The Dobbs effect will probably half their gains. (3-4 seats in senate, 30 in house)

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, that would not be a terrible House result if <45 year old composite is only 27%. That would mean a total young voter collapse.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1586749301820166147?t=udW5tkbBcYvWZcnTG...

[Gracile]

Re: CA-26 - Seems like Democrats are entering the expectation setting part of the campaign.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1586749301820166147?t=udW5tkbBcYvWZcnTG...

I don’t believe this or the right wing WA-SEN polls.  We have actual numbers from June (when the generic ballot was worse than now) where Brownley got 54%.  I don’t expect she does worse than that in a week.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1586716493177200641?s=20&t=RSXLK8_...

Pretty much the same thing they've had the last 3 months. It will be interesting if the Dems can actually keep it to a 13-16% GOP margin with whites. A lot of these recent polls have Dems getting only 77% with blacks but plenty of reason to be skeptical. You still see solid Dem numbers with moderates.

Also only 27% are age 45 and below, seems very very low.

More Ds have Early voted 47/35% than Rs so that GCB is fallacious

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1586749301820166147?t=udW5tkbBcYvWZcnTG...

I don’t believe this or the right wing WA-SEN polls.  We have actual numbers from June (when the generic ballot was worse than now) where Brownley got 54%.  I don’t expect she does worse than that in a week.

I mean it's fine believing what fits your priors and ignoring present data/warnings from democratic operatives.. that's part of being a partisan.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

All these California races are not looking good for Democrats. If Hispanics are all voting Republican now, the path to a substantial majority in either house will become much harder, or at least cancel out any gains made with Hispanics otherwise.

Which... I'm sure not what leaves the Democratic Party, and more importantly the progressive movement, for the long term. At the very least, I think it's safe to say M4A won't be seriously considered for another 30-40 years.

[Person Man]

All these California races are not looking good for Democrats. If Hispanics are all voting Republican now, the path to a substantial majority in either house will become much harder, or at least cancel out any gains made with Hispanics made otherwise.

Which... I'm sure not what leaves the Democratic Party, and more importantly the progressive movement, for the long term. At the very least, I think it's safe to say M4A won't be seriously considered for another 30-40 years.

That will mean they will have to look elsewhere for votes.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

All these California races are not looking good for Democrats. If Hispanics are all voting Republican now, the path to a substantial majority in either house will become much harder, or at least cancel out any gains made with Hispanics made otherwise.

Which... I'm sure not what leaves the Democratic Party, and more importantly the progressive movement, for the long term. At the very least, I think it's safe to say M4A won't be seriously considered for another 30-40 years.

That will mean they will have to look elsewhere for votes.

Where else is there to look? Uneducated white voters? Black voters who are only expected to vote comparatively more Republican down the line? Asians who also might be treading that way? The near-future looks terrible for the American left (and it ain't just about this election, so folks can't call me a doomer just yet).

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1586749301820166147?t=udW5tkbBcYvWZcnTG...

I don’t believe this or the right wing WA-SEN polls.  We have actual numbers from June (when the generic ballot was worse than now) where Brownley got 54%.  I don’t expect she does worse than that in a week.

I mean it's fine believing what fits your priors and ignoring present data/warnings from democratic operatives.. that's part of being a partisan.

Either both democrat and GOP strategists have no pulse on what’s happening…or a certain blue avatar was correct all along that republicans now only turn out for high stakes elections

[Dani Rose]

Even though I'm stubbornly wearing the armor of unstoppable optimism with regard to this election, I genuinely understand why people here are worried - about most of the country. But the dooming I'm seeing with regard to California and Washington is just silly. I highly doubt that the GOP's 2022 platform of "no regulation on the economy, all regulation in your pants" is what's going to finally break the dam for them in the West Coast.

[Person Man]

All these California races are not looking good for Democrats. If Hispanics are all voting Republican now, the path to a substantial majority in either house will become much harder, or at least cancel out any gains made with Hispanics made otherwise.

Which... I'm sure not what leaves the Democratic Party, and more importantly the progressive movement, for the long term. At the very least, I think it's safe to say M4A won't be seriously considered for another 30-40 years.

That will mean they will have to look elsewhere for votes.

Where else is there to look? Uneducated white voters? Black voters who are only expected to vote comparatively more Republican down the line? Asians who also might be treading that way? The near-future looks terrible for the American left (and it ain't just about this election, so folks can't call me a doomer just yet).

How did Republicans get more votes when they ran out of them?
Either Democrats will do better with non-Evangelical WWC and continue to gain with people like RR and PQG. Then again, I’d probably be less inclined to vote at all if the Democratic Party became just a big-tent alternative for one’s sake party, especially if a lot of localized issues were dealt with better than expected (like in Kansas and Nebraska this year).

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1586749301820166147?t=udW5tkbBcYvWZcnTG...

CA 21 is more likely (Jim Costa)

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1586804261874188288?cxt=HHwWgICy0bSEu4...

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1586804261874188288?cxt=HHwWgICy0bSEu4...

Literally just lighting money on fire. Yes, Brownley's district could be competitive, but the other two just straight-up aren't happening.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1586789028501901316

LOL RCP is a joke

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1586789028501901316

LOL RCP is a joke

This is all a conservative journalist project, not anything serious.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1586804261874188288?t=1b9fNTpBNAjtUx4e...