Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Benjamin Frank]

Any live audio or video stream?

[Benjamin Frank]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues.  

Beshear is way more popular than Edwards and Kelly are. Had the latter two had Beshear’s popularity they would have likely outperformed their initial wins in their re-election campaigns.

And Roy Cooper and Steve Bullock did better in their re-election bids than their first wins. So did Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. And Chris Sununu and Phil Scott’s first races in 2016 remain their weakest showings.

According to Morning Consult, which has a long record of showing unusually rosy numbers for most Democratic (and some Republican) incumbents. I don’t dispute that Beshear is popular with the electorate, but I’d bet that it’s closer to a +10-15 range than to Morning Consult's +25-30 one, including in both parties' internals.

The fact that you think Morning Consult is a more reliable pollster than Emerson is totally fine, but you shouldn’t be surprised that others won’t agree with you.

I don't know what will happen, but for a historical perspective: in 1994 Texas Democratic governor Ann Richards had a 60% approval rating, but lost to George W Bush 54-46%.

I tend to pause before posting analogies like these thinking everybody here already knows them, then I remember that this happened nearly 30 years ago.

[Benjamin Frank]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues.  

Beshear is way more popular than Edwards and Kelly are. Had the latter two had Beshear’s popularity they would have likely outperformed their initial wins in their re-election campaigns.

And Roy Cooper and Steve Bullock did better in their re-election bids than their first wins. So did Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. And Chris Sununu and Phil Scott’s first races in 2016 remain their weakest showings.

According to Morning Consult, which has a long record of showing unusually rosy numbers for most Democratic (and some Republican) incumbents. I don’t dispute that Beshear is popular with the electorate, but I’d bet that it’s closer to a +10-15 range than to Morning Consult's +25-30 one, including in both parties' internals.

The fact that you think Morning Consult is a more reliable pollster than Emerson is totally fine, but you shouldn’t be surprised that others won’t agree with you.

I don't know what will happen, but for a historical perspective: in 1994 Texas Democratic governor Ann Richards had a 60% approval rating, but lost to George W Bush 54-46%.

I tend to pause before posting analogies like these thinking everybody here already knows them, then I remember that this happened nearly 30 years ago.

Sure, but that wasn't in a vacuum. That was the same night as the Republican Revolution of 94. It was hard for any democrat to win a competitive race that night.

I guess, but the Democrats haven't won the Texas governorship since. I think ultimately this was the final shift of Texas from Democratic to Republican at that time.