2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alcibiades]

Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

Bear in mind that for Peters, the NYT is still including those almost-certainly wrong numbers in Antrim County.  This could swing things by a few thousand votes.  

Antrim correction will only change margin by +6k for James, so Peters looks to be safe.

[Alcibiades]

PA looking good for Biden - honestly it might not even end up that close.

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Of course to us as election nerds who have followed the polling and predictions, Biden’s win (fingers crossed) will look underwhelming, but remember that it won’t to many (maybe most) Americans (a majority of whom thought Trump would win). Many Dems will be immensely relieved, while Republicans will be incredulous as to how their Dear Leader didn’t win in a landslide.

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https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324137523862511618

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Has someone checked on Kimberly Klacik

Losing 70-30

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I must admit we were a bit harsh on some of the Doomers considering the final result, but there’s absolutely no excuse for guys like SN and Woodbury still trying to claim that Trump is winning, after it’s clear much of what they were saying this cycle is still completely wrong in spite of the unexpected turnout/polling error.

[Alcibiades]

DTJr. calls out Ron DeSantis and Josh Hawley, presumably Cruz, Rubio, and Haley as well (thread)

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324453498897932289?ref_src=twsrc%5Ego...

He actually called them out generally with the exception of Hawley and DeSantis.

He @s Hawley and DeSantis in the next tweet in the thread.

Yes, but he’s praising them.

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https://twitter.com/RAGordon8/status/1324492076839567363?s=20

Can we stop with the random twitter observers? Trump is going to go +15 in Pima? Good luck with that.

I don’t trust anyone with a Spurs logo as their profile picture!

[Alcibiades]

So Far MA was a Bidenslide even in the rural parts. Not sure how late ballots trend. However most actual Urban areas in MA swung towards Trump, we could see a closer PV than expected if this holds true.


https://twitter.com/richparr79/status/1324362497164496899

https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/1324364398975176705
This could also mean there was depolarization lol.

Those places have large Hispanic populations.

I'm less sure what's going on with those random R-swinging towns in the Berkshires, but they're very WWC.

Overall I'm happy that the Massachusetts realignment of 2016 did not continue.

What’s happened to the Democratic electorate in this state is disgusting.

The hardworking democratic base voter makes up 40% of the Dems in this state and the out of touch latte liberal crew makes up a majority. It’s what allows us to elect ... less satisfactory Dems

I'm honestly surprised you showed up here again after posting 4000 times that Biden had no chance in Georgia, now that his win in Georgia is imminent.

Andrew Johnson was pretty appalling as well. Between the two of them.

Uh, Jackson?

A. Johnson is widely thought of as the worst President ever, so it’s fair to say he’s Trump’s only competition.

[Alcibiades]

In other news, it appears that Biden has now taken the lead in Muskegon County, MI, avoiding what had looked to be a Trump gain from 2016.

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Trump is a one-term president!

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So great for America and the world to have an adult back in the White House.

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If Ontario County, NY, has flipped in the end, I am now struggling to decide if Inyo is still the most surprising Democratic county flip or Ontario supersedes it.

Only the third time ever it’s voted Dem!

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Anyone surprised Biden did so well in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?  I expected him to win it by 3 points or so.

JOEMAHA swinging as hard as it did was a mild surprise, yeah, but consistent with the overall "white suburbia goes even yuger for Biden than expected, but almost everything else stalls out" story of the night.

Any chance of them meaningfully altering that district in redistricting?

They may just try to make it winner take all, too.

Partisan shenanigans might be harder in Nebraska because the legislature is nonpartisan, and although most members are actually Republicans, it contains a decent number of RINOs.

[Alcibiades]

One thing I didn’t realize until recently is that Bush won Dallas County in both 2000 and 2004. I know he’s from the state and everything, but I always assumed it was a longtime D county or at least one that flipped with Clinton like Clark or Miami-Dade.

What is astonishing is that Bush won Travis County (Austin) in 2000; this has always been a generally Democratic County, and it goes to show how powerful the native son effect was in Texas. Dallas and Houston, by contrast, were some of the more Republican areas of Texas for most of the second half of the 20th Century.

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296
You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

In 2012, the super-elite parts of many otherwise staunchly blue counties in the Northeast, Midwest and West Coast (e.g. Darien and New Canaan, CT, Winnetka, IL, and Atherton, CA) still voted for Romney. If you think of the suburbs of the South/Sun Belt as following a roughly similar pattern of realignment, but being a few cycles behind their counterparts elsewhere in the country, it makes sense. Buckhead in Atlanta and Paradise Valley in Phoenix also voted for Trump.

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296
You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

In 2012, the super-elite parts of many otherwise staunchly blue counties in the Northeast, Midwest and West Coast (e.g. Darien and New Canaan, CT, Winnetka, IL, and Atherton, CA) still voted for Romney. If you think of the suburbs of the South/Sun Belt as following a roughly similar pattern of realignment, but being a few cycles behind their counterparts elsewhere in the country, it makes sense. Buckhead in Atlanta and Paradise Valley in Phoenix also voted for Trump.

But these aren't suburbs. They're neighborhoods right next to Downtown Dallas. If Frisco and Plano flipped, I'd have thought this area of inner Dallas would uave as well. Also, Buckhead voted Clinton/Abrams/Biden, which makes this even stranger. It's like if Beverly Hills or Uptown Manhattan backed a Republican.

The Park Cities are much whiter, older, and wealthier than the suburbs you mention.