2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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On a Senate note:  GA-SEN candidate Doug Collins has just conceded to Loeffler.  (NYT)

Good news for Dems in the runoff.

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Biden lead holding steady in IA. Very worrying for Trump.

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I’m going to catch some sleep now (4 am where I am). When I woke up, signs in FL and NC discouraging, but now with the numbers out of AZ and IA, I’m fairly confident of a Biden win (though still nervous!).

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Trump guy on BBC just said AZ will be called for Trump on election night. Lol.

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(NYT) Lackawanna County, PA just flipped to Biden +8 with about 95% of the vote reported. 

Dauphin also looking good.

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Biden has edge in NYT needle in GA now.

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MN potentially voting substantially to the left of MI, WI and PA is surprising.

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So Biden has to win 2 of MI, WI, PA and GA. More likely than not, in my opinion.

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Biden did poorly in upstate NY. First to lose Erie county since McGovern.

I’m not sure Eerie is a done deal, but he did do poorly in the NE of the state.

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Peterson’s lost.

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Biden win looking likelier by the minute in GA.

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Peterson’s lost.

As expected. Peterson, Shalala, Mucrasel-Powell, Horn, Finkenauer, Torres-Small...all have lost reelection. And Cunningham looks like he is in trouble as well. How is Jared Golden faring?

Golden should win.

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If Biden’s lead of 8 holds in MN, it’s hard to see him losing the Rust Belt trio.

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So, Biden’s going to win WI and MI, isn’t he?

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What the hell happened in Antrim County, MI?! Went from +30 Trump in 2016 to +26 Biden this time with almost all votes counted. Insane swing.

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What the hell happened in Antrim County, MI?! Went from +30 Trump in 2016 to +26 Biden this time with almost all votes counted. Insane swing.

It's an error.

Ah. Did look rather off. Trump and Biden’s vote totals the wrong way around?

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What's going on with Arizona?  I went to bed last night feeling pretty good because Fox/AP called it, then I wake up and see the lead has narrowed to 3%.  Wasn't really expecting the lead to narrow with the outstanding vote being what it is.

AP called it based off data that was not from Edison Research which apparently had an error over how much of the vote was reporting.

So the AP call is reliable?

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Can Biden even still win PA at this point?  How possible really is that right now?

Yes, more than 1.2 million ballots are left.

Those skew 75-24 Biden.

Trump's lead is 480.000 right now, but Biden will net more than 600.000 out of the remaining ballots.

Biden will finish ca. 100.000 ahead of Trump.

Yep. With my back of the envelope calculations, I reckon Biden has to win about 65% of outstanding ballots, which he ought to clear.

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Can Biden even still win PA at this point?  How possible really is that right now?

Yes, more than 1.2 million ballots are left.

Those skew 75-24 Biden.

Trump's lead is 480.000 right now, but Biden will net more than 600.000 out of the remaining ballots.

Biden will finish ca. 100.000 ahead of Trump.

Please god let it be!

This is crazy. How is Georgia & North Carolina looking?

Trump will win NC, Biden narrowly favoured in GA.

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I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

I don’t want to insinuate anything, but Southern TX was infamous for voter fraud back in the day.

I don't believe it and we don't have any actual evidence to imply it. Let's not start throwing around allegations, okay? Ya know...for the sake of democracy.

Sorry, it was more a historical tidbit. In case my original post didn’t imply it, I don’t really believe there’s anything fishy going on there either.

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I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

I think in the long-term, Hispanics will mirror the journey of Irish- and Italian-Americans, i.e. they will come to be seen as white, and accordingly vote in line with the white average.

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I think it’s safe to say it’s well and truly over for Trump in WI and MI.

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I think it’s safe to say it’s well and truly over for Trump in WI and MI.

Then it's ball game. Biden wins.

As long as he hangs on in NV and AZ.

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I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

The needle has stopped updating.

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Out of interest, is there a reporting error in Pottawattamie County, IA?