🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Battista Minola 1616]

I flew with TAP this February for my first extra-European holiday (two weeks in the USA)... it would be very sad if it closed.
P.S. The bacalhau I ate at the Lisbon airport was yummy

Also, I would like to comment about Ventura's authoritarian NUT stances about party unity, but all that comes to my mind is a gigantic LMAO. He really wants to be hated, huh?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Did I really misspell bacalhau in an attempt to show that I can use ã and õ? Lol

Anyway, it is not very surprising that TAP is in such a mess with regards to privatization, the Italian company Alitalia has gone through a similar situation as well, being a hot topic here for years, until it has been fully re-nationalized this year (although I am not actually sure this will be the end of the story).
It really looks like the airline industry is one of the messiest.

Yeah, I would say that Ventura's move feels very Trumpian. Speaking of Ventura, what percentage of the vote in the coming year's presidential election do you think would be considered a "win" for him? Breaking 10%? Maybe just arriving in second place?

[Battista Minola 1616]

How do you manage so many debates?
And why do you even need them? It's not a round-robin football tournament lmao

By the way, I bet whatever you will on Ventura having a total meltdown in at least one out of the debate with Ana "friend of ciganos" Gomes and the one with Marisa "commie Mother Teresa" Matias. Probably both.

[Battista Minola 1616]

1. SIC/Expresso must really have money to throw away to commission a poll that includes hypothetical runoff matchups. I'd be extremely shocked if Marcelo fell below 50%.

2. The debate schedule seems indeed silly, but in my opinion there should only be one debate, that with all candidates together, so I don't particularly care.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is a boss, undoubtedly.

CDS judging from that national council sounds like an embattled party that is trying to play more-right-wing-than-thou because they don't know where to go and because of CHEGA, which actually checks out if the party is really polling at 2.5%.

Also, what is PDR?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Ervededo parish by-election: PS gain from PSD

58.5% PS (+11.9), 4 seats (+1)
40.0% PSD (-8.8 ), 3 (-1)
  1.5% Blank/Invalid (-3.1)

51.4% Turnout (-3.2)

Socialistslide!

Obviously there's the caveat of a very small sample of voters making swings easier, but a 21% swing is still quite dramatic.

[Battista Minola 1616]

453 votes out of 882 registered. The PS got 265 votes, the PSD 181. 7 ballots were blank or invalid. To be honest, even I would vote for the PS if I lived in this parish. The former PSD president used parish money to pay gamble debts in a casino in Verin, Spain. The guy was nuts! xD

Also, this result is very bad for the PSD in Chaves. The party suffered a surprise defeat in 2017, although the signs were there, way before, for the PSD that they were on the verge of losing Chaves. Chaves is very loyal to the PSD in national elections, but in local elections it has a history of swinging between PS and PSD. For next year's election, the PSD has no shot in taking back Chaves, the city is a safe PS.

Huh, I didn't realize you are usually a PSD voter (are you?)

[Battista Minola 1616]

It's kind of surprising to see that the level of support for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the PS is basically the same as in the PSD. I would have expected more defections towards leftist candidates.

Also confronting how many BE voters support Matias or CDU voters support Ferreira to how many CHEGA voters support Ventura gives you a strong insight into the veridicity of the expression "Ventura is CHEGA".

Regarding Ventura's interview:
I mean, it was already obvious to everyone here that his pledge was straight-up BS, but backtracking on it even before the election is so lame. I guess he's thinking it's a good way to save face in advance. I don't think it is.

[Battista Minola 1616]

P.S.: The last time a politician here used a higher deity to reject a political run was Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in 1996, when he said "Not even if Christ came back to earth would I run for the PSD leadership". A few weeks later, Marcelo was running for the PSD leadership. Let's hope this time Santana really means it.

Ouch!

I hope Santana cares about the Second Commandment more than Marcelo.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Given the party name I imagine Tino de Rans is a satirical candidate?

The Pitagórica poll paints a somewhat different cross-party situation, yeah. And Ventura taking so many CDS votes..

How serious do the accusations into Rui Moreira look? And will the mayoral election be in October regardless of whether or not he gest removed?
I wonder what the electoral scenarios are for this. I remember you saying that Porto has been trending to the right much lately, but I guess local elections are a different story.

[Battista Minola 1616]

However, Ventura did say this, in February 2020, about a possible suspension of his seat in order to run for President:

I will work on my presidential candidacy without ever forgetting that my first obligation is in parliament. I will not suspend my mandate and will therefore continue to exercise the functions for which I was elected

Nothing new, coming from him, but still awkward...

I'm both surprised and unsurprised that Ventura manages to break his promises and his words on *everything*

Government gave false information to the EU in choosing the European prosecutor

The government's chosen candidate for Portugal's European Prosecutor, José Guerra, had his CV falsified by the government, according to RTP and SIC networks. The original candidate, chosen by an international committee, Ana Mendes de Almeida was rejected by the government, so a letter was sent to the European Commission asking them to accept Justice José Guerra because of 3 important points in his CV. But, the Attorney-General office sent a letter saying all 3 reasons pointed in Justice Guerra CV are false. Justice Guerra said he had no responsibility in the making of the letter to the EU but refused any more comments. The Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, is also refusing to comment the controversy. In the EU, of the 19 countries, only Portugal, Bulgaria and Belgium refused the international committees decisions and nominated their own candidate. The opposition is already demanding explanation, calling this episode "very serious".

Big oops from whoever member of the government did this. Like, why?
Speaking of which, why was Mendes de Almeida rejected in the first place?

[Battista Minola 1616]

This weekend's Aximage poll raised eyebrows for the almost 0% share it gives to CDS. CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, was furious with polling company accusing it of antics, tricks and of having very little technical rigor. He said the party would file a complaint to the media regulator against the polling company. Rodrigues dos Santos also trashed Aximage polling director Almeida Ribeiro, a former secretary of state under PM José Sócrates and advisor of Benfica President, Luís Filipe Vieira, saying they should be ashamed of themselves and recalled the controversy where Mr Ribeiro was accused, during the 2020 Benfica elections, of hyping poll results in favour of Luís Filipe Vieira.

Lmao
This is totally a move that will give more credibility to your party, yes.

The viral moment when, during the debate, Tino de Rans puts rocks in the table he caught from a beach in Peniche:

https://www.facebook.com/marceloafazercoisas/videos/2844028902536921/?t=23

Ventura's face is priceless. But what was Tino trying to say? Well, that the sea brings rocks of all colours and sizes, just like there are people with different colours and beliefs, but that the sea also brings "people" who want to built walls.

Ventura's face is more than priceless! I was literally laughing out loud. He was destroyed.

Not a good week for him between that and the rejection of his Court appeal...

[Battista Minola 1616]

Ventura's face is more than priceless! I was literally laughing out loud. He was destroyed.

Ventura looks embarrassed, not sure if he was destroyed. His counterpart Santiago Abascal was utterly trashed in a recent debate in the Spanish Congress, but apparently the failure of the Vox's motion of no confidence had no impact in the polls. I guess this viral moment won't harm Ventura at all, because it's just an ephemeral thing. The underlying causes that contribute to the rise of the xenophobic far right remain

Well I obviously don't mean destroyed in a literal sense and he won't be politically hurt at all. But it was a great moment (for Tino, that is).
For that matter, Ventura has produced countless of worse moments and he hasn't been hurt at all by them. I know he won't just go away.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I spent 34 minutes watching a debate conducted entirely in a language that for the most part I can't understand... what am I doing with my life*

The parts I was able to understand were all great for MARCELO . When he mentioned the social doctrine of the Church and the preferential option for the poor. When he pushed back on that 'photograph with criminals' thing (which I didn't get entirely but seemed like a patently obvious low-key racist appeal) vigorously defending his role as President of all Portuguese. When he defended Portugal's lack of life imprisonment (huh, I discovered that today) making appeals to Sá Carneiro and the Pope and Christian charity.
I mostly missed the second half, but his defence of the COVID strategy seemed pretty forceful, and I learned that Ventura supports presidentialism, which adds to the list of horrible things about him, lol.

But yeah you can guess I prefer the Direita Social to the "Direita do Medo" (as an Esquerda person, of course).




*although of course I understand some bits as a fellow Neolatin language to my own Italian. I could start seriously learning Portuguese, but this is not the right moment and Spanish is far higher on my list of priorities (sorry).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Frankly, right now, I'm worried about these elections. The Covid situation in Portugal has become very bad, almost 50,000 new cases in just 5 days, and the elections have a big cloud of abstention over them. Like I said in a post above, there is a big fear that turnout will be very low and that only the most motivated bases will show up to vote. Ventura has a very motivated base, while the other candidates, including Marcelo, have a much more fluid and instable political base. Marcelo's victory isn't in doubt, but the rest is very open if low turnout is a reality. I really hope I'm wrong.

I hope you're wrong too. Our last elections had pretty normal turnout (low, but in line with other referenda and local elections) but they were conducted when case rates were quite low. 10,000 cases per day is indeed extremely bad in a nation of 10 million people and I've seen that apparently it's been a very sudden jump, which is particularly troubling.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Unrelated, but I was looking at some maps and I've noticed that the district of Leiria is sizably more right-wing than all the surrounding ones and breaks the pattern of Portugal getting more left-wing the more South you go*, most notably being the only mainland district won by PSD in 2005, and having never been won by the PS. Why is that?


*well, excluding the southernmost Faro but like, you'd be hard pressed to get more left-wing than Communist-loving Alentejo.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Prayers for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa!

And he's far from the first head of state to contract the virus... also RIP the final debate.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Wasn't his 3.28% already a surprisingly high figure in 2016 compared to expectations? I have read that, although I didn't follow Portuguese politics as closely when I was a teenager.

You should definitely post in this thread more often!

Anyway, I hope that in the end Marcelo just got a false positive.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Electoral compass for the 2021 Presidential elections:

https://emquemvotar.pt/

My results were:

77.2% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
72.5% Tino de Rans
62.0% Ana Gomes
57.6% Marisa Matias
57.3% André Ventura
50.9% João Ferreira
50.9% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa

I tried this too because why not! I found the questions surprisingly simple (which is not a bad thing).

My results were:

84.3% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
74.1% João Ferreira
71.9% Ana Gomes
62.2% Marisa Matias
58.9% Tino de Rans
50.4% André Ventura
46.4% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves

Our preference orders are almost opposite of each other save for Ventura, lol. I guess it makes sense, since my impression is that you are something something classical liberal and I am pretty much a (small-c conservative) leftist. Not that this matters much since I am not Portuguese, of course.

[Battista Minola 1616]

The former PM and PS leader José Sócrates wrote an op-ed in a Brazilian magazine, (because probably no one would give him airtime in Portugal) in which he starts by referring to the lessons of history, Mussolini and the recent evasion of the Capitol in the US, to then saying that the campaign for the Presidency in Portugal has shown the level of "political degradation" the country is in, adding that the arrival of André Ventura is changing everything and that "the show is now one of violence, personal aggression and brutality, first in words - always begins in words". He went on to trash Ana Gomes by accusing her of using the fight against corruption in order to curse many people, the rich, the powerfull and many of her own companions in the PS. He adds that Ms Gomes only does this in order to be popular and make headlines. He ends by saying that President Marcelo has to defend himself against Ana Gomes attacks.

Ana Gomes already reacted to Sócrates op-ed, saying it speaks volumes that Sócrates is defending President Marcelo and that she would not comment words from those who embezzled state funds.

This op-ed has an uncomfortably strong smell of Moderate Heroism... but why shouldn't anyone give airtime to Sócrates in Portugal (or probably, why does he receive any in Brazil)?

[Battista Minola 1616]

The former PM and PS leader José Sócrates wrote an op-ed in a Brazilian magazine, (because probably no one would give him airtime in Portugal) in which he starts by referring to the lessons of history, Mussolini and the recent evasion of the Capitol in the US, to then saying that the campaign for the Presidency in Portugal has shown the level of "political degradation" the country is in, adding that the arrival of André Ventura is changing everything and that "the show is now one of violence, personal aggression and brutality, first in words - always begins in words". He went on to trash Ana Gomes by accusing her of using the fight against corruption in order to curse many people, the rich, the powerfull and many of her own companions in the PS. He adds that Ms Gomes only does this in order to be popular and make headlines. He ends by saying that President Marcelo has to defend himself against Ana Gomes attacks.

Ana Gomes already reacted to Sócrates op-ed, saying it speaks volumes that Sócrates is defending President Marcelo and that she would not comment words from those who embezzled state funds.

This op-ed has an uncomfortably strong smell of Moderate Heroism... but why shouldn't anyone give airtime to Sócrates in Portugal (or probably, why does he receive any in Brazil)?

José Sócrates is probably the most toxic politician in Portugal, right now. The way his tenure end, with the bailout, plus all of his corrupt conduct that was unveiled in the "Marquis Operation", in which Sócrates was involved in a series of WTF money schemes and his subsequent arrest, he was in jail for around 8 months or so, made him so unpopular, and so hated by everyone. He is also involved in ludicrous scandals involving books we said he wrote but in reality he didn't, it was a ghost writer, and that his friends, his ex-wife mother and other people close to him bought thousands of copies of his books in order to seem it was a best seller. Anyway, the PS want distance from him and he even isn't a PS member anymore.

Don't know why he got the "airtime" in Brazil. However, even here Sócrates has links because he's also suspected of receiving bribes from Odebrecht, the company in the middle of the Brazilian "Lava Jato" scandal.

Huh, I did not know anything about him except that he used to be PM, but he sounds like a deplorable person (and lmao at someone like him decrying "political degradation" in Portugal).

If he is involved in Brazilian scandals too... whoa.

[Battista Minola 1616]

André Ventura's campaign event in Setúbal city ended in violence with protesters throwing several objects towards Ventura and some seem to have hit the candidate. He was rushed to his car by security. Riot police was on the campaign site and tried to create a security area but tensions escalated between the police and protesters and one protester was arested by the police. The arrest created more clashes between the police and protesters with police using force and pepper sprays to disperse the protesters. It's still unclear if Ventura was injured.

Thanks, Portuguese Antifa, for your attempt to create sympathy for Ventura. Very smart strategy indeed!

[I obviously condemn this kind of violence]

[Battista Minola 1616]

4pm turnout numbers:

2021: 35.44% (-2.25%)
2016: 37.69%
2011: 35.16%
2006: 45.56%

It's official. Turnout will not reach the low levels many were predicting, myself included, of just 30%. It will be much higher than that.

Beautiful news!

Hopefully the voting results will be just as beautiful as the turnout numbers.

[Battista Minola 1616]

RTP is talking to reporters in campaign headquarters by this order: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, André Ventura, João Ferreira, Marisa Matias, Tiago Mayan, Tino de Rans.

It could mean nothing, but it's still interesting.

This is the order I expect. João Ferreira had a better campaign than Marisa, and the rest is pretty much as expected.

Huh? I remember seeing Matias always above Ferreira in the polls? Do you think there has been a late shift because of their campaigns?
Although granted, the difference was always small and polls are imperfect anyway.

[Battista Minola 1616]

So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo municipalities.