The way I see it Biden wins the state by 1-2% or so and both GA-R and GA-S go to a runoff (with Ossoff getting very close to 50%+1 in November but no cigar). If Republicans pull off an upset in one of NC/ME/MI and hold the other competitive races (big if), Senate control will then come down to the January runoff elections in Georgia, and it won’t be pretty.
I just can't see Dems winning a runoff in Georgia if Biden has already won. There's a scenario in there where Trump squeaks by and Republicans lose the senate due to a double runoff.
I really wouldn’t be too sure. Between Biden winning the state, the Democratic coalition consisting of more high-propensity voters than in 2008, the very limited number of persuadable voters, and a potentially disastrous transition period, all bets are off this time. The one thing that might save Loeffler (and Perdue) is if the runoff decides Senate control, but even then her (and any other Republican's) path would be very, very narrow. The state is just so close to gone for Republicans that any Republican victories in 2021/2022 would probably amount to little other than a (narrow) last hurrah. I’d be shocked if any Republican won the runoff by more than 3 points.
I don’t think it would be that shocking, however, if Ossoff won outright on 11/3 if Biden carries the state by a decent margin (about 2 or so), it’s not the mostly likely of outcomes, but certainly plausible. A result like that would definitely signal the state is a lost cause for the GOP.
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