Fringe battleground question

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'd say IN, even though realistically VA will be a lot closer. NoVa ain't swinging back to the GOP with Trump on the ballot, and there isn't much population growth in the rural white counties downstate to make up for it.

But really, this comes down to who is more likely to win in a landslide. Neither IN nor VA will flip in this election, barring a major landslide victory either way. If Biden gets a double-digit margin over Trump, Indiana is elastic enough to potentially go blue. If Trump wins by 5pts or above, then I think the relative closeness of Virginia will give him the state. However, at this point it's looking extremely unlikely that Trump could win the popular vote by that big, or at all. His approval rating is well underwater, he is one of the only major world leaders who didn't get a major "rally around the flag" boost, and now there's his sloppy handling of the worst civil tensions we've seen in a while. I think it's more likely that Biden wins nationally by 10+ pts than Trump winning by 5. Therefore, I say Indiana.