Fringe battleground question

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The odds of these two outcomes are virtually identical on betting sites at ~12%.

[Non Swing Voter]

Given that Biden is the stronger of the two nominees, I'd say it's more likely (though still very unlikely) that Biden wins Indiana. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

The odds of these two outcomes are virtually identical on betting sites at ~12%.

That's far too high for either of them.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The odds of these two outcomes are virtually identical on betting sites at ~12%.

That's far too high for either of them.

I think Biden's ceiling in Indiana is probably around 45% And that's if everything goes his way, GOP turnout is suppressed, and he wins back half of the Obama-Trump voters and pretty much all of the Gary Johnson voters.

I just can't see it happening.

I also just can't see Trump winning Virginia, even if everything goes his way.

[Rookie Yinzer]

IN.

[Ferguson97]

Neither, but gun to my head: Trump wins Virginia.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

VA is only safe D. IN is titanium R - a D win is impossible at the federal level in this political generation.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

VA is only safe D. IN is titanium R - a D win is impossible at the federal level in this political generation.

The formula for a Democrat winning Indiana has changed since 2008, but it's still possible. A moderate, Midwestern Democrat with blue collar appeal could win the state against an unpopular Republican in a year that overwhelmingly favors Democrats.

And a moderate Republican with impeccable military credentials could win VA.

No states are "titanium" for a generation.

[redjohn]

OBVIOUSLY Trump winning VA, but neither will happen. My reasoning is that Trump's best case scenario in VA (let's say Biden has a health episode and screams a racial slur on TV a week before the election) is probably Biden winning by a couple points. Biden's absolute best-case scenario in IN is only losing by 10 points. So yeah, VA is clearly much more of a "battleground" than IN.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

VA is only safe D. IN is titanium R - a D win is impossible at the federal level in this political generation.

The formula for a Democrat winning Indiana has changed since 2008, but it's still possible. A moderate, Midwestern Democrat with blue collar appeal could win the state against an unpopular Republican in a year that overwhelmingly favors Democrats.

And a moderate Republican with impeccable military credentials could win VA.

No states are "titanium" for a generation.

I would contend that what is required to sufficiently appeal to Indiana (presumably, categorial rejection of federal judges that subscribe to certain principles) would make a primary victory nigh on impossible in several states, simply because they have to be seen to overcompensate (beyond standard compromise for local appeal) for a national party that repulses too many local voters.

Even old blue dogs like Bredesen couldn't quite hack it in 2018 and I maintain he could have eked out the slightest win in Tennessee if everything had gone right (the same is true for Donnelly), but things have only gotten worse in both states for Democrats since then. With exceptions like MT, I think it's fair to argue lots of states are either already titanium or on the way to becoming so at the federal level (Senators, Presidency etc) thanks to polarisation. By a generation, I mean a political generation of ~16 years.

[Xing]

Realistically, 0=0.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'd say IN, even though realistically VA will be a lot closer. NoVa ain't swinging back to the GOP with Trump on the ballot, and there isn't much population growth in the rural white counties downstate to make up for it.

But really, this comes down to who is more likely to win in a landslide. Neither IN nor VA will flip in this election, barring a major landslide victory either way. If Biden gets a double-digit margin over Trump, Indiana is elastic enough to potentially go blue. If Trump wins by 5pts or above, then I think the relative closeness of Virginia will give him the state. However, at this point it's looking extremely unlikely that Trump could win the popular vote by that big, or at all. His approval rating is well underwater, he is one of the only major world leaders who didn't get a major "rally around the flag" boost, and now there's his sloppy handling of the worst civil tensions we've seen in a while. I think it's more likely that Biden wins nationally by 10+ pts than Trump winning by 5. Therefore, I say Indiana.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Weinzapfel could beat Hill

[SaneDemocrat]

Hot take is Indiana is within 2 points of Virginia in terms of margin.

[SaneDemocrat]

Can easily see Biden+9 VA
Trump+11 IN

[SnowLabrador]

Virginia.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IN is not in play