Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Problem is, there aren't many more moderate conservatives to steal. They're either too partisan to vote Liberal, or they're already voting Liberal. Sure there are former Liberal voters who are put off by Trudeau's wokism, and socially liberal voters who care more about lower taxes, so still vote Conservative, but to win over those people, the Liberals risk alienating a far greater amount of people on the left. 

I agree with that, going after moderate conservatives is clearly much harder than going after promiscuous progressives. My point is more that validating an opponent's ideology and platform without showing the same ideological commitment as they would is a risky play. Another minority Liberal government would only strengthen the NDP's credibility as a serious party.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Nonetheless most of Western Canada generally has a right wing party (BC Liberals, UCP, Saskatchewan Party, and Manitoba PCs) vs. NDP, but Eastern Canada has not gone that route. 

What, Eastern Canada doesn't have right wing parties? Or am I misunderstanding what you're saying?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Nonetheless most of Western Canada generally has a right wing party (BC Liberals, UCP, Saskatchewan Party, and Manitoba PCs) vs. NDP, but Eastern Canada has not gone that route. 

What, Eastern Canada doesn't have right wing parties? Or am I misunderstanding what you're saying?

I assume he means that the NDP being the main opposition to the right is more of a western phenomenon, while the Liberals are much stronger in Ontario (2018 excepted) and eastwards.

Ah, I missed the "vs the NDP" part, my bad

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

She doesn't speak french but is from Quebec. Going to be weird trying to see quebecer try to attack her for not knowing the language despite creating the schools that didn't teach it to her.

The Inuit people of northern Quebec had their first contact with Europeans through the Hudson's Bay Company, and not the French settlers of the St. Lawrence Valley. Most of their interaction with European settlers was in English.

Northern Quebec wasn't even part of Quebec initially, it was still Rupert's Land at the time of Confederation. It was only included in Quebec after Rupert's Land was purchased, and the Abitibi/Jamesie/Nunavik/Eeyou Istchee area was included in Quebec out of simplicity

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Abacus out today and it is 37% Liberal, 25% Conservative, 20% NDP.  Nanos has similar and Tories sub 25 while NDP not far behind.  With Tories imploding, I think they can forget about winning, I think falling to third place at least in votes (probably not seats) is not as far fetched as some think.  I think this could be beginning of end for party.  If they lose bad enough, its not like they have their own Justin Trudeau waiting in the wings.  Never mind public viewpoints are decidedly negative of Tories while more positive of Singh so idea Tories don't win again and future is Liberal vs. NDP is not as far fetched as some think.  Maybe not likely, but not impossible.  Either way I see a big shift left in Canada with Canada emerging as most left wing country in West.  Yes one can argue over degree, but right gaining in most places (Europe) or flat US.  Nowhere is it imploding like Canada.

Yeah there's no doubt about the Tory implosion now. The extent to which this reflects a huge shift to the left, versus the Tories just being a garbage party with repeatedly-awful leaders, lack of any serious vision, held hostage by a reactionary element, all that is more up for debate.

The BC-ization of Canadian federal politics would be interesting, even more interesting would be a 25x3 split of Canadian politics. Here's what I mean:

- Tories never recover from the current numbers and 25% becomes their baseline
- The NDP gains among left-liberals who see the NDP growing and want a bolder vision in power. The NDP hits a ceiling at around 25%, because the more radical elements keep the centrists out
- The Liberals hold on to around 25%, made up of core Liberal supporters

The remaining 25% are swing voters, Bloquistes, Greens, fringe party voters, etc.

This wouldn't be that crazy either. The long term outlook of Canpoli has seen the big two slowly decline in power as smaller parties, most notably the CCF-NDP and more recently the Bloc, have entered parliament and chipped away at the big boys. It's weird because theoretically FPTP is supposed to have the opposite effect, but for whatever reason, Canadians have started looking at smaller parties. That the Liberals won government with 33% of the vote, and that the biggest party of that election didn't even get 35%, is a good demonstration of this fragmentation. The fact that the Liberals are only 50/50 on a majority despite their chief opponent imploding is another.

We might even see a multi-party proportional representation type system if this trend bears out. It's not that hard to imagine a fragmented multiparty pizza parliament in Canada, since all parties are big tent parties representing diverse interest groups.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Leger with a pretty different reading of the race.

LPC: 33
CPC: 30
NDP: 19
BQ: 7 (32% in QC)
GPC: 5
PPC: 4

Ontario: LPC 37, CPC 31, NDP 20
Quebec: BQ 32, LPC 31, CPC 17, NDP 13
BC: LPC 35, NDP 31, CPC 21 (!), GPC 6
Alberta: CPC 54, LPC 25, NDP 14
Atlantic: LPC 39, NDP 29 (!), CPC 24
MB+SK: CPC 50, LPC 27, NDP 16

Weird time for polling, isn't it? If Leger's numbers are more accurate, the Liberals are looking at losing vote share in every polling region east of Manitoba, and an almost certain minority with those breakdowns. If Abacus or Nanos are more correct, then it's a pretty easy Liberal majority.

30% for the CPC is certainly on the higher end of the polling consensus, but no less plausible than Abacus' 25%. NDP around 20%, as expected. I'd expect the Liberals to pull better than 33% though, and losing vote share in Ontario seems pretty unlikely.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I follow Canadian politics a bit, although I don't post that much in here, but I don't know if the Tories fall isn't more disappointment and alienation from their voters rather than actual loss of voter base. The current CPC leadership is very weak and it isn't doing a very good opposition nor showing a good alternative to the Liberals. Thus, it's understandable that the Tories voters, with the current data, aren't happy or energetic about voting Conservative and they could be actually thinking in skipping the next general election and not vote. The fact is that polling also shows that Trudeau's government isn't that popular and voters aren't overall happy with the current situation (in the Abacus poll, 40% want "definitely" some kind of change, f.e.).

For example, here in Portugal in 2019, during that summer, the PSD was in the exact same situation of the Tories: a massive lead for the PS, 43-20%, no enthusiasm in the rightwing electorate and those voters were planning to skip the election. But, a bad PS campaign and a good performance by the PSD in the campaign, ended with a 36-28% gap on election day.

I'm not saying that is absolutely the case here, it's just my opinion, but I feel that it's more disappointment that is driving the Tories down. O'Toole is being a failure and party leaders, at least that's my view, are very important for a party stance in Canada, probably more than in other nations with Parliamentary systems, and that may be hurting the Tories.

I think your analysis is pretty spot on, although it's worth to note that Canadian governments don't necessarily need high approval numbers to stay in, or even win a majority government. A majority of Canadians almost always "want change" (except in rare periods like 2016 when Trudeau had a massive honeymoon), but the "change" vote splits between several opposition parties. The conventional wisdom goes that once the change vote starts to reach 70%, goodbye government.

Your reading of the Tories' situation is basically the political analysis consensus here too. The Conservative Party has been pretty incompetent since Harper left and they keep electing uninspiring, unlikable leaders like Scheer and now O'Toole.

And yes, you're right that party leaders play a much bigger role here than in other parliamentary democracies. Most Canadians are pretty nonpartisan and like to "shop around", so a leader who can deliver the message well is crucial.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The BC-ization of Canadian federal politics would be interesting, even more interesting would be a 25x3 split of Canadian politics. Here's what I mean:

- Tories never recover from the current numbers and 25% becomes their baseline
- The NDP gains among left-liberals who see the NDP growing and want a bolder vision in power. The NDP hits a ceiling at around 25%, because the more radical elements keep the centrists out
- The Liberals hold on to around 25%, made up of core Liberal supporters

The remaining 25% are swing voters, Bloquistes, Greens, fringe party voters, etc.

This wouldn't be that crazy either.

This would be extremely crazy! As I have pointed out previously with reference to these wide-eyed predictions of doom, literally two years ago the Conservative Party received more votes than any other party. You can come up with elaborate reasoning for the Tories' demise if you want, but the actual issues are a poor leader coupled with the problems that opposition parties worldwide have faced in establishing a message during the pandemic.

Yes to all of that, but I think it's more. The Conservatives have a serious brand problem.

I think Harper's last term was a weird time in Canadian politics in just how negative the tone got. The CPC doubled down on that during the campaign with more of the same. For a whole generation, the Conservative Party came to symbolize a kind of dirty, ugly, paranoid brand of politics, and they've done absolutely nothing to shed that image.

Harper at least was a competent politician who got things done and ran things pretty well. Now we have Ford, Kenney and Pallister running provinces - the three horsemen of the Conservative apocalypse, three men who are largely incompetent and have mismanaged the hell out of public services. So now not only do the echoes of the nasty Conservative Party ring, but people don't even trust them to run a government decently.

For much of his time in power, Harper kept the ugly side of the CPC in check. He let it loose with the 2015 campaign, and now they're everywhere. Even Scheer was giving a slight nod to conspiracy theories about this "UN Migration Pact" thing, they put out ads about how the Liberals were apparently trying to rig elections, their Chinese-language Facebook page was putting out ads about Trudeau apparently legalizing coke and heroin, and in his retirement speech Scheer even talked about how you shouldn't trust MSM and read conservative media like the Post Millennial instead.

And now, over half of the CPC caucus voted against banning bloody gay conversion therapy.

I believe the term used in the UK to describe the Tories' woes in the 90s and 00s was "the nasty party", and that's an image problem the CPC has. They're our nasty party. Trudeau can be an idiot at times, his youthful optimism has started to morph into sanctimonious elitism, his government has bungled a number of files. But his government has done a lot of good things as well, and perhaps more importantly, he's not an asshole. The Conservatives certainly seem that way.

If you come off as both mean and incompetent, why exactly would people want to vote for you? Well I guess it did work for Trump, but Trump also had like 10% favourability ratings in Canada so that's not a path you want to go down.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

As for three provincial, doesn't help although Ford is still leading in polls, but largely due to strong splits on left so he still could lose.  Yes polling higher than O'Toole, but probably due to incumbency factor and never mind Del Duca is a dud and too many don't trust NDP.

The Ontario opposition parties are indeed a lifeline to Doug, because neither the NDP nor the OLP seem remotely capable. Their best hope is holding the PCs to a minority in 2022, then coalition-ing into power. FWIW, this is exactly what happened in 1985.

Legault, Higgs, and King probably best centre-right premiers but due to language in first and different name while small provinces in latter two, few know much about them and most in Quebec don't really associate Legault with Tories.  In New Brunswick and PEI most see this as further example of PCs still be worthy of government, Reform not.

I'd add Moe in Sask to that as well, he's not the most likable or charismatic guy (and his past is pretty sketchy, he has a DUI conviction and was at fault in a fatal accident, separate incidents), but he's popular in Saskatchewan and seems to have handled COVID much better than his prairie counterparts. But he's also technically not a Tory and Saskatchewan is a pretty inconsequential province, so your point stands.

And possible may not as I think a lot of millennials and Gen Z see entire right of spectrum as woefully out of date and see left as future for all its flaws.

Boomers went from being the "Humphrey-McGovern generation" to "Reagan-Bush generation". With changing times and circumstances I can see a rightward shift in Canadian (and global) millennials and gen z, but not as things currently stand.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

43% in Dufferin County commute to GTA.

https://tinyurl.com/jn4y5zyn

Dufferin County is more dense than Lanark and sort of falls in between.  Unlikely Liberals flip Dufferin-Caledon, but its not as rock solid as Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston is and if Tories fell to only 20 seats in Ontario might be vulnerable while would have to fall to single digits before Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston turns red (that is seats in Ontario for Tories).

The Caledon part of Dufferin-Caledon also has some "Milton-ization" going on with the new subdivisions, lots of people from Brampton moving into Caledon. The visible minority population of Caledon doubled from 2011 to 2016, and unsurprisingly, the main settlements in Caledon saw more Liberal precincts in 2019 than 2015. Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston doesn't have this, as Ottawa hasn't completely outgrown itself and middle class immigrants tend to move into the new subdivisions in Barrhaven, Kanata, and Orleans instead of leaving the city altogether.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Polls like the Leger one could be advantageous for the Liberals. The closer voters perceive the race to be, the more ABC voting happens.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

Another riding in the Liberal column

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

Did the electors of Granville finally smelled the coffee and realised she was one of the most incompetent and overpromoted politician in Canada?

And she was widely considered one of, if not the most incompetent minister during Trudeau's first term. But yall aren't ready for that conversation because SNC woman good

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

Did the electors of Granville finally smelled the coffee and realised she was one of the most incompetent and overpromoted politician in Canada?

And she was widely considered one of, if not the most incompetent minister during Trudeau's first term. But yall aren't ready for that conversation because SNC woman good

more like native woman good.

Ehh a little bit of both, she wasn't a particularly revered figure before the SNC-Lavalin scandal happened

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

Didn't Tories get over 80% here last time?  I suspect this is one of the safest Tory ridings in whole country.  In Saskatchewan, I think Saskatoon West and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only ridings I could see NDP flipping. 

It's a paper candidacy, NDP got only 9.5% there last time

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's only a paper candidacy if you don't campaign, and he has already been door knocking.

Does he live in the riding?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

He's running for the Jagmeet Singh Party apparently 

It's always funny to see whether parties lean in more to the leader's brand or the party brand because that's usually a good indicator of which brand is more popular. We saw "Team Trudeau" back in 2015, and now the NDP seems to be going for "Team Jagmeet"

Somehow I don't think we'll see "Team O'Toole" or "Team Del Duca" anytime soon

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

He's running for the Jagmeet Singh Party apparently  

It's always funny to see whether parties lean in more to the leader's brand or the party brand because that's usually a good indicator of which brand is more popular. We saw "Team Trudeau" back in 2015, and now the NDP seems to be going for "Team Jagmeet"

Somehow I don't think we'll see "Team O'Toole" or "Team Del Duca" anytime soon

Just wait for Del Ducamania.

Well first he'll need to give a coherent answer for why he killed Harry Potter's parents

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Conservatives pitch fiscal reform to end 'mistreatment of Western Canadians' - Leader Erin O'Toole, in Calgary a day after PM, says Alberta would get $4B under plan


"The proposal would give Alberta $4 billion in rebates, according to the Conservatives, leaving $1 billion for the rest of the country."

The irony is probably lost on those fine folks who vote CPC because the damn Frenchies in Kwebeck and the lazy fishers in the maritimes steal their hard earned tax dollars through equalization

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Conservatives pitch fiscal reform to end 'mistreatment of Western Canadians' - Leader Erin O'Toole, in Calgary a day after PM, says Alberta would get $4B under plan


"The proposal would give Alberta $4 billion in rebates, according to the Conservatives, leaving $1 billion for the rest of the country."

The irony is probably lost on those fine folks who vote CPC because the damn Frenchies in Kwebeck and the lazy fishers in the maritimes steal their hard earned tax dollars through equalization

Probably suggests internals are horrible and actually at risk of losing seats in Alberta so trying to shore up that.  Fact Trudeau is in Alberta and seems quite confident suggests to me party internals show they are possibly on cusp of breakthrough there.

Trudeau's trying to make big moves in Alberta, that's for sure. He was in Calgary to announce a new LRT line with Nenshi, he discussed equalization with Kenney, and he just poached a Calgary City councillor to run for the Grits in Skyview (which suggests that the riding is in play, politicians don't just leave behind their office to run in an unwinnable race). Tories have good reason to be worried.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Conservatives pitch fiscal reform to end 'mistreatment of Western Canadians' - Leader Erin O'Toole, in Calgary a day after PM, says Alberta would get $4B under plan


"The proposal would give Alberta $4 billion in rebates, according to the Conservatives, leaving $1 billion for the rest of the country."

The irony is probably lost on those fine folks who vote CPC because the damn Frenchies in Kwebeck and the lazy fishers in the maritimes steal their hard earned tax dollars through equalization

Probably suggests internals are horrible and actually at risk of losing seats in Alberta so trying to shore up that.  Fact Trudeau is in Alberta and seems quite confident suggests to me party internals show they are possibly on cusp of breakthrough there.

Trudeau's trying to make big moves in Alberta, that's for sure. He was in Calgary to announce a new LRT line with Nenshi, he discussed equalization with Kenney, and he just poached a Calgary City councillor to run for the Grits in Skyview (which suggests that the riding is in play, politicians don't just leave behind their office to run in an unwinnable race). Tories have good reason to be worried.

Could you see Trudeau being the longest serving PM in Canadian history?

Do I see Trudeau serving continuously until 2038? No, and I dont think MacKenzie King's record will ever be broken.

Even if Trudeau gets a majority, his days are numbered. Conventional wisdom is that Chrystia Freeland will take over from him sometime before 2025.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Talking of Trudeau Sr., has there been much discussion, given everything, of his record on Native affairs, particularly that time he tried (admittedly without success) to legally abolish Native peoples as peoples? And I do believe that the minister who he used as the hatchet man for that is still alive. Has anyone asked him for a quote?

The minister of Indian affairs who presented the 1969 white paper was Jean Chrétien, yes, that one. He lives a pretty private life these days, only showing up now and then in Liberal events. I doubt you'd be able to get an answer or interview from the now-87 years old and recently widowed Chrétien

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Interesting weird article by the Hill Times (paywalled so I could only go off the bit I could see) that seems to be suggesting a return of Stephen Harper.

Okay, it's an opinion piece and probably one based on very flimsy evidence, it's not gonna happen realistically. But boy, that would be the craziest thing to happen in Canadian politics in a long time.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

As somebody on the center left (a liberal but not a Liberal) I obviously agree with this, but the problem is we're not really the voters that the Conservative Party is targeting or has been part of their base for 17+ years.  So, this is our view, but is it the view of those voters?

I mean, I'm one of the more right wing Liberals so I could concievably vote Conservative, but it would require the Liberals to really screw up, so yeah not exactly an accessible vote.

But I do think the case for centrists is that the CPC isn't offering anything they want to see.

Right-wing priorities just aren't resonating with Canadians right now, just like left-wing priorities were put on the backburner in the 1990s, so the Liberals then became centre-right and even the third way NDP fell largely into irrelevance. If Canada gets a credit downgrade, interest rates go up, there's a terrorist attack by a non-white perp, crime becomes a huge issue, and so on, the right would have a much easier time.

What I mean by the CPC being "awful" isn't that they don't resonate with my priorities, it's that they don't even resonate with their own voters. O'Toole's moderating efforts seem to annoy the right wing of his party, while the right wing of his party seem to annoy the centrists. It's hard to say what the raison d'être of the CPC is anymore. O'Toole is trying to find a position by talking about how they're the only opposition to four left-leaning parties, so it seems like he's trying to unite the base. That's what I think the CPC needs to do right now, put aside building a winning coalition for another cycle, just focus on unity for now. Problem is, when O'Toole is announcing carbon taxes and trying to portray a socially progressive image, the right isn't going to feel so united.