CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Just a heads up to all voters of California to vote YES on recall and Jeff Hewitt as the Replacement!

Jeff endorsed Larry Elder, btw.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Further to the discussion on maps, it looks like NOTA is on track to win more counties than Elder.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1435625159570837505?s=21

NOTA winning question 2 would probably be a good look for Newsom, and give the Dems in the state legislature a better platform to advocate reform of the recall process.

Will still be a pyrrhic victory if Newsom wins by a margins of <10%, which would be kinda embarrassing in CA of all places. Given the narrative about a close race, I doubt it will hurt him this year, but I think there's a chance it could come back to haunt him in the blanket primary next year though ("Gavin Newsom nearly handed CA over to a GOP governor who might have appointed Feinstein's successor. Do you really trust him with another term? Vote Chiang/Villarosa/etc").

There’s a chance of someone running on this, but I don’t think that they’d be very successful. Granted, it would be hilarious if say Chiang ran and made it to second place and locked the GOP out and then the GOP’s hatred of Newsom drives some of them to vote for Chiang (see CA-Sen 2018 where De Leon did very well in many of the most Republican areas simply because he wasn’t Feinstein).

Also, don't forget, but a massive number of Rs didn't even vote, iirc, the undercount in Cox counties would've put De Leon over the top if he won all of them.Ofc, thats unlikely, but still.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

So, weird thing I've noticed about recall polling: 18-34s are seemingly all over the place.

Take YouGov, Suffolk, and SurveyUSA, in the last couple weeks.





18-34s are anywhere from Yes+13 to No+35, even as 65+s are a very consistent No+15ish in all of the polls. What the heck is going on with those LV screens?

Update: the new SurveyUSA poll has all age groups moving 5-6%, with the notable exception of 18-34s, who have moved 19 (!!) points towards No.

STOP using SurveyUSA, for the love of man.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1436134777623494682
This is  not going to be close.

At this point, it's looking like Newsom is going to win the recall by a margin of at least 20%, comparable to his 2018 victory. What a failure this has been for Republicans.

I mean, at least dems had to hard outspend us, but since money is basically unlimited now, its not like that matters.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

At what date/time do you get a final'ish result?

About 3 weeks from now, but I’d say about 75% of the votes will be reported tonight/within a couple of days. We’ll have a good idea of what’s gonna happen by the end of the night anyway.

Yeah history says about 75% of the vote is in the hands of the county boards or in dropboxes already. This should get process very fast, and in 2020 this was done in close to poll closing It will faster than 2020 cause there's only one ballot page and 2 questions, rather than 4 and 20+ different things to vote one. Then the majority of the remaining vote is E-Day or E-Day adjacent. In 2020 this took a few days to process, here it may be a case of hours because of the ballot size. The lagging vote then takes weeks, but this comparatively tiny pool only matters for tight races...which are the ones we usually pay attention to. If the race needs to wait of the long count, Newsom is in a world of danger.

Purely anecdotal, but many people early vote that I know, including my own family, never got around to it and are going in person today just because the election came up so quickly, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some weird higher in person rates in some places.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

No/Newsom performing notably better than Biden 2020 with college+ white voters and No only barely trailing Biden with black voters with Elder as the leading replacement candidate bodes well for VA Dems.

Interesting to note was the hispanics results, with hispanic men going 53-47 in favor of no. Trends are real?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

No/Newsom performing notably better than Biden 2020 with college+ white voters and No only barely trailing Biden with black voters with Elder as the leading replacement candidate bodes well for VA Dems.

Interesting to note was the hispanics results, with hispanic men going 53-47 in favor of no. Trends are real?

Yes, the flip side of this is that these numbers look really encouraging for R's in trying to hold down TX/FL and win NV/AZ back. 

if you compare exit polls, No dramatically trailed Biden with Hispanics.  It was 58% No vs. 75% Biden!

Yeah, its crazy. Also, but an underrated flip currently is San Bernadino, which 40% out but Yes is only trailing by 4. Cox lost it by 3, so thats interesting.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

I imagine Merced and San Bernardino will flip, unsure on riverside and orange

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

I imagine Merced and San Bernardino will flip, unsure on riverside and orange

Its gonna be really bizarre if Newsom wins Orange and Riverside but loses San Bernardino. San Bernardino has consistently voted left of those two counties, why does it seem like that won't be the case here?

In the 2010 census San Bernardino is 49.2% hispanic, compared to 45.5% in Riverside. Hispanics being the most pro recall group might be the difference.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

LOL, non swing I just your signature.

i deserve it for being so off.

Honest question: do you think I am a morally bad person because I am a republican?

Maybe I am taking it the wrong way, but the way you post I get this sense that you don't just view me/my side as having different policies. You think I am a threat and a morally inferior person

I hope you don't actually think that, but I get that sense....

anyway, have a good night. I don't think the same about you. I disagree with your policy preferences, but I don't deny your good nature.

try to stay on topic.  this thread is about the CA recall.  thanks. 

lmfao

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

This is very interesting. Looks like the cities with a larger white population swung to Newsom and those with a larger Hispanic and Black population swung against him. And perhaps lower turnout among non-whites might explain some of that, which means this result is even worse for Republicans than it looks at first glance. They should perhaps quit with the covid truther nonsense and actually try and face reality.

Yeah, I don't think it's a coincidence that the most Hispanic cities also saw some of the worst turnout drops + swings against Newsom. I mean, we knew going into EDay that Hispanic & youth turnout was as abysmal as they usually are in odd-year elections.

Once the SoCal counties finish counting or the Supplemental gets released, I'd love to make a bubble graph comparing city margins to ethnicity/turnout. I'm clamoring to do one for the IE but San Bernardino is counting their last 10k votes at a glacial pace.

Truly, the never ending struggle in california.