CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Orange County just added around 24,000 votes; No expands its lead by around 2,000.

I don't think it is a given that the overall gap narrows. Almost all ED votes are in and MIB, even those cast late, are not necessarily Republican.

BTW today's OC vote was 54.5% NO - 45.5% YES. Around 200K left in OC.

if Newsom ends up staying anywhere close to +28.. whew lawd

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Riverside County update. Around 19,800 ballots were counted today.

No   271,453    52.1  (Was 52.4)
Yes  249,783    47.9  (Was 47.6)

No's margin fell from 4.9 to 4.2


Next update is tomorrow around 5-6 PM PST. 180,000 VBM + 5,000 provisional ballots remain

[wbrocks67]

Seems more likely we're headed for Newsom +25-26, which would be close to the 3pt shift that Biden had in 2020 as well.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is becoming unspinable for GOP posters here... this is not an over performance for the GOP ... and they are the ones who forced this recall. 

[Gass3268]

What's left in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1438309469797040131?s=20

[E-Dawg]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

UPDATE:
Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in) (Unchanged)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (69% of vote in) (Percentage unchanged despite 9% more votes in)
Riverside: NO 52.1-47.9 (70% of vote in) (Very slight shift in favor of recall with 8% more votes in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (82% of vote in) (Percentage unchanged despite 7% more votes in)

I think that Merced will end up voting for recall thanks to the margin being so close, but since the other 3 have barely shifted, I don't think the math is there for them to flip to Yes unless the outstanding ballots end up being very Yes leaning.

[Non Swing Voter]

What's left in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1438309469797040131?s=20

LOL so the NO vote is actually increasing?

[Matty]

LOL, non swing I just your signature.

i deserve it for being so off.

Honest question: do you think I am a morally bad person because I am a republican?

Maybe I am taking it the wrong way, but the way you post I get this sense that you don't just view me/my side as having different policies. You think I am a threat and a morally inferior person

I hope you don't actually think that, but I get that sense....

anyway, have a good night. I don't think the same about you. I disagree with your policy preferences, but I don't deny your good nature.

[Non Swing Voter]

LOL, non swing I just your signature.

i deserve it for being so off.

Honest question: do you think I am a morally bad person because I am a republican?

Maybe I am taking it the wrong way, but the way you post I get this sense that you don't just view me/my side as having different policies. You think I am a threat and a morally inferior person

I hope you don't actually think that, but I get that sense....

anyway, have a good night. I don't think the same about you. I disagree with your policy preferences, but I don't deny your good nature.

try to stay on topic.  this thread is about the CA recall.  thanks. 

[Matty]

LOL, non swing I just your signature.

i deserve it for being so off.

Honest question: do you think I am a morally bad person because I am a republican?

Maybe I am taking it the wrong way, but the way you post I get this sense that you don't just view me/my side as having different policies. You think I am a threat and a morally inferior person

I hope you don't actually think that, but I get that sense....

anyway, have a good night. I don't think the same about you. I disagree with your policy preferences, but I don't deny your good nature.

try to stay on topic.  this thread is about the CA recall.  thanks. 

I honestly am going to worry about your mental well being if the gop does well in 2022. You take this stuff wayyy to seriously.

It's not life or death lol

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Anyway, how about that recall?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

LOL, non swing I just your signature.

i deserve it for being so off.

Honest question: do you think I am a morally bad person because I am a republican?

Maybe I am taking it the wrong way, but the way you post I get this sense that you don't just view me/my side as having different policies. You think I am a threat and a morally inferior person

I hope you don't actually think that, but I get that sense....

anyway, have a good night. I don't think the same about you. I disagree with your policy preferences, but I don't deny your good nature.

try to stay on topic.  this thread is about the CA recall.  thanks. 

lmfao

[Non Swing Voter]

Anyway, how about that recall?

OK I'll get it back on topic.  THG said the following before the recall: "The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022."

So by the powers of transitivity (?) doesn't this mean that his is "rather [great] news for Democrats in 2022"?  Or can we only read tea leaves if they are good for the GOP?

[_.]

Does nobody else see the insanely low turnout in Imperial County, California?

Look, on New York Times currently, it says the following:

Imperial County, California (Pop 180K in 2020)
No - 61.3% - 8,830
Yes - 38.7% - 5,572
40% of estimated votes

Now compare it to another county of similar size:

Shasta County, California (Pop 182K in 2020)

Yes - 66.3% - 30,932
No - 33.7% - 15,726
74% of estimated votes


What's going on here? Is it that in Imperial County in‐person voting is much higher proportionally and we can expect for that to show a large increase? Do they have historically low turnout? When is our next Imperial County update?

[Holmes]

Does nobody else see the insanely low turnout in Imperial County, California?

Look, on New York Times currently, it says the following:

Imperial County, California (Pop 180K in 2020)
No - 61.3% - 8,830
Yes - 38.7% - 5,572
40% of estimated votes

Now compare it to another county of similar size:

Shasta County, California (Pop 182K in 2020)

Yes - 66.3% - 30,932
No - 33.7% - 15,726
74% of estimated votes


What's going on here? Is it that in Imperial County in‐person voting is much higher proportionally and we can expect for that to show a large increase? Do they have historically low turnout? When is our next Imperial County update?

Turnout’s low in Imperial, yeah, but it also has only 60k registered voters compared to nearly 100k in Shasta. Despite having a similar population, a lot of people who live in Imperial can’t actually vote.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Does nobody else see the insanely low turnout in Imperial County, California?

Look, on New York Times currently, it says the following:

Imperial County, California (Pop 180K in 2020)
No - 61.3% - 8,830
Yes - 38.7% - 5,572
40% of estimated votes

Now compare it to another county of similar size:

Shasta County, California (Pop 182K in 2020)

Yes - 66.3% - 30,932
No - 33.7% - 15,726
74% of estimated votes


What's going on here? Is it that in Imperial County in‐person voting is much higher proportionally and we can expect for that to show a large increase? Do they have historically low turnout? When is our next Imperial County update?

Newsom won Imperial 20K - 12K in 2018, if anything that expected turnout seems really high lmao

Imperial has 88.5K registered voters, vs Shasta's 113K.

[_.]

Turnout’s low in Imperial, yeah, but it also has only 60k registered voters compared to nearly 100k in Shasta. Despite having a similar population, a lot of people who live in Imperial can’t actually vote.

Newsom won Imperial 20K - 12K in 2018, if anything that expected turnout seems really high lmao

Imperial has 88.5K registered voters, vs Shasta's 113K.

Thank you all for the interesting info!


Could we expect Los Angeles County to report once every day at 2:00 AM Pacific (like it did yesterday)? I think it narrowly gets below 70 at the end, but it still is definitely way stronger for recall than expected.

[Adam Griffin]

As of one hour ago / 71% reporting / 9,224,190 votes counted:

https://twitter.com/adamgriffin/status/1438358356763217924

[Non Swing Voter]

Does nobody else see the insanely low turnout in Imperial County, California?

Look, on New York Times currently, it says the following:

Imperial County, California (Pop 180K in 2020)
No - 61.3% - 8,830
Yes - 38.7% - 5,572
40% of estimated votes

Now compare it to another county of similar size:

Shasta County, California (Pop 182K in 2020)

Yes - 66.3% - 30,932
No - 33.7% - 15,726
74% of estimated votes


What's going on here? Is it that in Imperial County in‐person voting is much higher proportionally and we can expect for that to show a large increase? Do they have historically low turnout? When is our next Imperial County update?

Turnout’s low in Imperial, yeah, but it also has only 60k registered voters compared to nearly 100k in Shasta. Despite having a similar population, a lot of people who live in Imperial can’t actually vote.

why not?  young population?  lots of non-US citizens?  Big prison?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

As to the huge shift in already solid Republican Lassen County, there’s a state prison up there that is slated to close, so I’d imagine that a lot of people (well, a large percentage lol) up there are POed about that. My state senate district covers the area and the state senator (who is from rural Lassen county) is not happy about it. It provides a lot of jobs up there.

[DrScholl]

Does nobody else see the insanely low turnout in Imperial County, California?

Look, on New York Times currently, it says the following:

Imperial County, California (Pop 180K in 2020)
No - 61.3% - 8,830
Yes - 38.7% - 5,572
40% of estimated votes

Now compare it to another county of similar size:

Shasta County, California (Pop 182K in 2020)

Yes - 66.3% - 30,932
No - 33.7% - 15,726
74% of estimated votes


What's going on here? Is it that in Imperial County in‐person voting is much higher proportionally and we can expect for that to show a large increase? Do they have historically low turnout? When is our next Imperial County update?

Turnout’s low in Imperial, yeah, but it also has only 60k registered voters compared to nearly 100k in Shasta. Despite having a similar population, a lot of people who live in Imperial can’t actually vote.

why not?  young population?  lots of non-US citizens?  Big prison?

There are two prisons there and it's also safe to assume that there are a lot of non-citizens since it is right on the border.

[Devout Centrist]

Does nobody else see the insanely low turnout in Imperial County, California?

Look, on New York Times currently, it says the following:

Imperial County, California (Pop 180K in 2020)
No - 61.3% - 8,830
Yes - 38.7% - 5,572
40% of estimated votes


What's going on here? Is it that in Imperial County in‐person voting is much higher proportionally and we can expect for that to show a large increase? Do they have historically low turnout? When is our next Imperial County update?

NYT hasn't bothered to add the updated numbers from today:

No -- 9,535 / 62%
Yes -- 5,862 / 38%

[Oryxslayer]

BTW, here the correct map of LA counties Yes/No vote. The previous map apparently had some precinct changes that had not been published, so the joining of the data was faulty. The resulting breakdown is  a much more recognizable divide.

Oh, and the Hispanic areas are among the fiercest No precincts.

[Sbane]

Does nobody else see the insanely low turnout in Imperial County, California?

Look, on New York Times currently, it says the following:

Imperial County, California (Pop 180K in 2020)
No - 61.3% - 8,830
Yes - 38.7% - 5,572
40% of estimated votes

Now compare it to another county of similar size:

Shasta County, California (Pop 182K in 2020)

Yes - 66.3% - 30,932
No - 33.7% - 15,726
74% of estimated votes


What's going on here? Is it that in Imperial County in‐person voting is much higher proportionally and we can expect for that to show a large increase? Do they have historically low turnout? When is our next Imperial County update?

Turnout’s low in Imperial, yeah, but it also has only 60k registered voters compared to nearly 100k in Shasta. Despite having a similar population, a lot of people who live in Imperial can’t actually vote.

why not?  young population?  lots of non-US citizens?  Big prison?

Lots of agriculture down there in the middle of the desert, believe it or not. Predominantly Hispanic farming towns all over California have horrible turnout.

[Sbane]

BTW, here the correct map of LA counties Yes/No vote. The previous map apparently had some precinct changes that had not been published, so the joining of the data was faulty. The resulting breakdown is  a much more recognizable divide.

Oh, and the Hispanic areas are among the fiercest No precincts.

No seems to have done very well in Asian predominant areas as well. Arcadia used to be a Republican city, especially at the state level, but every single precinct seems to have voted to keep Newsom. Across the San Gabriel Valley, Diamond Bar and Rowland Heights seem to have done the same. Similar results in Orange County as well.