NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

She'd win. Dan Forest only lost by 5 points despite saying masks don't work and running against a governor with a good approval rating, while at the same time electing a homophobic, anti Semitic nut job as lt governor
This state is fine with voting for incompetent loons as long as they have an r next to their name

Both of those candidates, especially Robinson, were helped by running in a  downballot race and therefore not getting as much public exposure as the presidential candidates. In 2022, being at the top of the ticket means that sort of thing will probably matter more.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Meadows out:

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1329905701846740996

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jeff Jackson is in. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article248608500.html

He couldn’t have done this a year ago? Ugh

There was speculation here (and journalistic rumours elsewhere) that Schumer did not 'okay' his candidacy because of skeletons in the closet. Him choosing to run now probably debunks that and makes the recruitment of Cunningham look like an even more bizarre decision.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jeff Jackson is in. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article248608500.html

He couldn’t have done this a year ago? Ugh

There was speculation here (and journalistic rumours elsewhere) that Schumer did not 'okay' his candidacy because of skeletons in the closet. Him choosing to run now probably debunks that and makes the recruitment of Cunningham look like an even more bizarre decision.

Apparently it was because they disagreed about campaign strategy. Jackson wanted to run a grassroots campaign and hold town halls all over the state, but Schumer wanted the candidate to be locked in a windowless basement and make fundraising calls all day.

This was what Jackson claimed in the leaked call and the alternative explanation for his non-candidacy. The 'unified basement strategy' is probably dead in the water now.

I wonder who else might decide to unpause their political career if they objected to following that approach in previous electoral cycles.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jackson vs. McCrory is the best-case scenario for Democrats.

Mark Robinson? Madison Cawthorn? Lara Trump? The NC Republican bench is wide and full of terrible candidates. I’m not even sure McCrory would remain a particularly weak candidate with his bathroom bill debacle 6+ years behind him.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jackson vs. McCrory is the best-case scenario for Democrats.

Mark Robinson? Madison Cawthorn? Lara Trump? The NC Republican bench is wide and full of terrible candidates. I’m not even sure McCrory would remain a particularly weak candidate with his bathroom bill debacle 6+ years behind him.

McCrory is a wet noodle who wouldn't energize the base, unlike the people above. That's probably more useful for Democrats.

McCrory being a wet noodle probably hurts more than I'd considered (I forgot there wasn't any other high-profile election on the NC ballot in 2022), but I think Cawthorn has plenty of capacity to annoy his own supporters. As for Lara Trump, I suspect that she'll be about as well-received (relative to the original Trump) about as well as any scion of a well-known national political dynasty (i.e. not well). McCrory still strikes me as a bad candidate but I maintain that there are worse choices for NC Republicans.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/RepMarkWalker/status/1359505510341443584

Now use this in ads against him

A waste of airtime, worth even less than the Stood with Qanon pitches suggested here.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jackson is probably the best chance we have, but I still wonder if running for this seat in a possible Republican year instead of against Tillis in 2020 is the right move for him. It might actually be a wash.

I actually think the Warnock model might be the better bet here tbh.

He's great, but the Warnock model relies in part on a rare Loeffler-tier Republican.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

McCrory...tell me, how did this turn out for Bredesen, Bullock, Thompson, Strickland, and pretty much every Gov. this decade except Voldemort [and even that was a close one]?

It worked fine for Maggie Hassan, Tim Kaine, Angus King, John Hickenlooper and Mike Rounds (and Mitt Romney, at a stretch). Go back to the 2010 cycle, and you can also include John Hoeven and Joe Manchin. It’s usually a good launching pad, and there are so many failures because they are almost always pressured to run in races which are considered difficult for other potential nominees.

Linda Lingle probably saw the biggest blowout for a former Governor in a Senate race this decade (I’m not considering those who were Senators previously, of course). Among the losers, Charlie Crist in 2010 is also worth a mention, and Mike Castle for his defeat in the 2010 DE primary.