Fringe battleground question (user search)
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  Fringe battleground question (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which is more likely?
#1
Biden wins Indiana
 
#2
Trump wins Virginia
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 69

Author Topic: Fringe battleground question  (Read 1440 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,776


« on: June 04, 2020, 12:43:48 PM »

VA is only safe D. IN is titanium R - a D win is impossible at the federal level in this political generation.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,776


« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2020, 10:29:49 PM »

VA is only safe D. IN is titanium R - a D win is impossible at the federal level in this political generation.

The formula for a Democrat winning Indiana has changed since 2008, but it's still possible. A moderate, Midwestern Democrat with blue collar appeal could win the state against an unpopular Republican in a year that overwhelmingly favors Democrats.

And a moderate Republican with impeccable military credentials could win VA.

No states are "titanium" for a generation.

I would contend that what is required to sufficiently appeal to Indiana (presumably, categorial rejection of federal judges that subscribe to certain principles) would make a primary victory nigh on impossible in several states, simply because they have to be seen to overcompensate (beyond standard compromise for local appeal) for a national party that repulses too many local voters.

Even old blue dogs like Bredesen couldn't quite hack it in 2018 and I maintain he could have eked out the slightest win in Tennessee if everything had gone right (the same is true for Donnelly), but things have only gotten worse in both states for Democrats since then. With exceptions like MT, I think it's fair to argue lots of states are either already titanium or on the way to becoming so at the federal level (Senators, Presidency etc) thanks to polarisation. By a generation, I mean a political generation of ~16 years.
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