Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[DaleCooper]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

I'm actually valuing anecdotes like this way more than polls at this point, assuming they're coming from reliable people. Back in 2020 it was little things like this that were hints that Trump was still in the race in spite of what the polls were saying.

[DaleCooper]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

I'm actually valuing anecdotes like this way more than polls at this point, assuming they're coming from reliable people. Back in 2020 it was little things like this that were hints that Trump was still in the race in spite of what the polls were saying.

What kind of specific things are you referring to?

Little things like yard signs, the fact that the entire country seemed to expect it to be close in 2020, reports from people who actually live in a certain area about what the average person there believes. I remember there was a Maine avatar that said back in the summer of 2020 that he didn't know who these polls were reaching because it seemed to him like Sarah Gideon was running a terrible campaign for the state. If it's coming from someone who seems reasonable, that stuff means way more to me than whatever the media says.

[DaleCooper]

Even if Emerson is "right" and Beshear loses, it calls into question why they released a fake poll earlier saying that Beshear is 16 points ahead.

I think what is likely is that they're anticipating the race to be closer than their polls indicate and they fudged the numbers in order to look better or have plausible deniability.

[DaleCooper]

Even if Emerson is "right" and Beshear loses, it calls into question why they released a fake poll earlier saying that Beshear is 16 points ahead.

I think what is likely is that they're anticipating the race to be closer than their polls indicate and they fudged the numbers in order to look better or have plausible deniability.

Fudged the Beshear+16, the tied poll, or both?

The tied poll.

Even if they didn't, it's still a bad sign because it shows that they fail to get accurate samples of the electorate. I don't believe that the race shifted 16 points recently.

[DaleCooper]

Even if Emerson is "right" and Beshear loses, it calls into question why they released a fake poll earlier saying that Beshear is 16 points ahead.

I think what is likely is that they're anticipating the race to be closer than their polls indicate and they fudged the numbers in order to look better or have plausible deniability.

Fudged the Beshear+16, the tied poll, or both?

The tied poll.

Even if they didn't, it's still a bad sign because it shows that they fail to get accurate samples of the electorate. I don't believe that the race shifted 16 points recently.

Was the race ever even Beshear +16 tho. It was probably always tied

No, it wasn't ever +16. I think that was just another crappy poll, and then whatever their results were for this second one they moved the numbers down so they wouldn't be embarrassed when the race is closer.

[DaleCooper]

Polling is extinct. How many cycles before this is realized at an institutional level? Hopefully this race, however it goes, will be the last straw of its undeserved respectability.

This is why I am frustrated by the fake Emerson poll. If this is as narrow as 2019 was, then the pollsters and their apologists can prance around pretending that they were spot on and that this race shifted dramatically rightward over the course of 10 days, when it's transparent that they're just throwing stuff at the wall and hoping that the right number at the right time sticks.

[DaleCooper]

Apparently E day voting in Kentucky is “off the charts” according to predicit peoples. Can someone confirm or deny

I don't know, but PredictIt users are notorious for posting fake stuff in the comments in order to bump up a particular price. Not reliable.

[DaleCooper]

For context, PredictIt managed to get Blake Masters up to 50 cents after the election had been called for Mark Kelly last year, lmao.

[DaleCooper]

I’m honestly very surprised by the late dooming here. Cameron is a very weak candidate and Beshear is relatively popular. I expect him to win by no less than 5%.

Beshear is popular and I still think he’ll win, but what makes Cameron “very weak”? He seems like a fairly generic R, all things considered.

Generic is only a strength if you're up against a sh-t opponent. It's a weakness otherwise.

[DaleCooper]

It's all over. Cameron is already ahead by almost a thousand votes.