2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DaleCooper]

So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.

Is he sticking to his 100,000 lead prediction for Biden?

[DaleCooper]

I was going to say, if those 400k votes are from SE Pennsylvania, with probably at least 120k from Philadelphia itself, then Biden should easily take close to 80% of those.

[DaleCooper]

Word on the street (or Twitter) is that Trump's numbers aren't encouraging in Arizona and if future batches of votes are less favorable then it won't look good for him. But there is still a chance he eeks out a win if everything goes right for him.

[DaleCooper]

Word on the street (or Twitter) is that Trump's numbers aren't encouraging in Arizona and if future batches of votes are less favorable then it won't look good for him. But there is still a chance he eeks out a win if everything goes right for him.

(I'm gonna be annoying from now until the end of the election and ask people to source what they're hearing.  Nothing personal! And I'm not doubting you! It just helps to have some verification).  

Who's saying this on Twitter, DC?

That's totally fair. I'm referring to a data analyst that was on the ground in Maricopa County and Harry Enten also said it on MSNBC, I think. Sadly I didn't save any links since I've been pretty obsessively bouncing from page to page trying to get information.

[DaleCooper]

For those just joining us, we are getting vote drops today from:

-- GA @ 11AM EST
-- NV @ 12PM EST
-- PA @ 12PM EST
-- AZ    

Bob Casey (PA-SEN, D) was just on CNN and stated that there was some 400K outstanding ballots in PA (most from SEPA).  Biden trails Trump by around 140-150K votes.  

Strap in, boys and girls.  

The next Maricopa ballots will be revealed this evening.

[DaleCooper]

There does seem to be a sense among the analysts and politicians that the writing is on the wall in PA. I get the sense that they realize it'll take a miracle for Trump to win with the outstanding ballots that are left, but stranger things have happened so everyone is still on edge.

[DaleCooper]

So, did Trump ask the Supreme Court to stop the counts and they said No ?

Will the mentally ill, defeated POTUS concede ?

I think Trump's hope of having the might of the Republican Party behind him as he tried to illegally stay in power ended the second McConnell came out and said that the elections are state things and none of the federal government's business.

[DaleCooper]

All the Trump campaign's "victories" are lies intended to delegitimize the election. If there was a hearing called to even consider interfering with the count, we'd have heard about it long before the Trump campaign got any results. These press conferences are also Jacob Wohl style stunts. If it worries you, just focus on the real news and hope for the best, but exposing yourself to their propaganda has no value or purpose.

[DaleCooper]

Can the discussion about stealing the election go to the relevant thread? I was hoping to use this thread to keep track of and discuss vote counts and that's impossible now.

[DaleCooper]

Can the discussion about stealing the election go to the relevant thread? I was hoping to use this thread to keep track of and discuss vote counts and that's impossible now.

For what it’s worth, and if anyone left doesn’t have me on ignore, I apologize for flipping out a bit.  I’m trying to think sensibly, I really am.

I totally understand and sympathize with your anxiety about all this. The best thing to do these days is to keep yourself focused on reality and not immerse yourself in the alternate universe that Trump has created for himself and his supporters. The way things look, Biden will pull ahead in Pennsylvania.

[DaleCooper]

Joe is at 488K in Philly. There is *at minimum* 100K left to at least *report* in Philly.

19% of the county left to report, according to NYT.

[DaleCooper]

Fox says that there is still 13% of PA ballots left to report and Biden is now only down by about 122k. Looks like the 100k Biden lead could even have been a pretty conservative estimate from Casey.

[DaleCooper]

Clark only reported 14k new mail votes, Biden won by 30%, they still have about 65k mail-in votes to count.

If all of the Clark vote is mail, then it seems like Biden will net a healthy lead from it.

All votes outstanding from Nevada are either provisional ballots or mail-ins, I believe. I think they're done counting election day

[DaleCooper]

PA's big vote drop was likely delayed by them successfully appealing the decision to let Trump's people oversee the vote counting. I read on NYT that counting in Philly "resumed" after the state Supreme Court decided that.

[DaleCooper]

I think networks can call NV now, honestly. We only got a small number of the Clark County votes left, he won them by 30 and expanded his lead. Zero chance Trump wins now. Just confirmed our suspicions that the Clark mail votes would heavily favor Biden.

Because of the weirdness surrounding AZ, I think all the networks are going to call PA as the tipping point state.

[DaleCooper]

These rural Nevada counties are doing nothing to cut into Biden's vote so far. With 60k Clark County ballots left, they could easily call it now unless there's something I'm missing.

[DaleCooper]

Lindsey Graham openly calling for a coup

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1324541097880756226

How much more of this stuff do we need before we can openly call the Republicans a fascist/authoritarian political party?

I've seen enough . . .

[DaleCooper]

Presumably the "Stealing the election" thread exists for a reason, right?

[DaleCooper]

Btw is Mark Kelly in any trouble with Arizona tightening. I haven’t been able to check

No

[DaleCooper]

So... in AZ, is Kelly's victory in doubt at all?

Not at all.

[DaleCooper]

This is pretty obscure and frankly a bit irrelevant now, but I'm surprised that Sarpy County, which is the other county that comprises NE-02, has swung quite massively towards Biden. Its leftward shift is actually greater even than Douglas county.

[DaleCooper]

Regarding the runoff, so far something that has seemed true in the age of Trump is that Democrats perform better almost everywhere in off-year elections than in presidential elections. We'll see how that goes with Trump defeated.

[DaleCooper]

I really think the AP would've retracted their Arizona call at this point if they believed it was going to come down to a couple thousand votes either way.

[DaleCooper]

They definitely won't call it until they've done their recount, but as the (very few) remaining votes come in Biden's lead will probably keep increasing. In the end it'll be close but probably enough to withstand a recount and the legal scrutiny.

[DaleCooper]

Where can we see the estimates of whatever is left to be counted (or received) in Georgia?