2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DaleCooper]

Wasserman maintains that Biden winning Pennsylvania "isn't a nail-biter"

[DaleCooper]

90,000 ballots across the state of GA. SOS won't speak until the morning, as they counting furiously through the night.

Is 90,000 enough?

If Biden wins them 2-1 then he'd net 30k votes.

[DaleCooper]

I'm wondering if a lot of votes have been counted in PA but not reported yet. There hasn't been any new releases of data in a while.

[DaleCooper]

51% in Philadelphia would be on par with the 2018 midterms, by the way. That seems absolutely impossible to me and if it were the case then we absolutely would not be hearing confidence from Biden's campaign and pessimism from Trump.

[DaleCooper]

If Fox or AP doesn't retract it's projection as these first batches of ballots come in then I doubt they will. If they had serious doubts then they surely wouldn't wait until Trump is gaining to change their call, one wouldn't think.

[DaleCooper]

Wasserman is right.  There's definitely more than 130k outstanding from Philly.  Maybe that's the current number but some votes that have already been "counted" haven't been released or something.

It's implausible that every other county in PA had higher turnout except Philly, the Democratic base, which would have been heavily targeted by Dems.  Also, it's unlikely the vote would be stagnant from 2016 numbers when Philadelphia, unlike some of the other cities like Detroit, is actually growing in population and has a lot more voters now.

Even if Philadelphia is stagnant from 2016, Biden should net at least another 120-150k votes from there, right? Or am I being unrealistic?

[DaleCooper]

So clearly they're counting PA tonight but not releasing anything, at least not for a while. It's been a long time since they've updated the vote at all.

[DaleCooper]

So from what I can gather. There were 750 (give or take) thousand absentee votes to count in Pennsylvania. Over the course of the evening that got lowered to 450k (give or take). Does this mean that we can expect those 300k that were counted but not reported to get released sometime tonight or will they wait and release it all together once they count everything?

[DaleCooper]

So from what I can gather. There were 750 (give or take) thousand absentee votes to count in Pennsylvania. Over the course of the evening that got lowered to 450k (give or take). Does this mean that we can expect those 300k that were counted but not reported to get released sometime tonight or will they wait and release it all together once they count everything?

The 750k estimate was just bad/outdated and was considering some places like York which already counted their absentee votes like 24 hours ago to still have 70k remaining absentee ballots.

Can you spell out what this means for Biden in PA please? Sorry, I'm exhausted and am not sure I understand.

[DaleCooper]

CNN still has outdated PA numbers, Trump's margin has dwindled to 153k.

With how many outstanding votes?

[DaleCooper]

CNN still has outdated PA numbers, Trump's margin has dwindled to 153k.

With how many outstanding votes?

Ca. 450.000

Do we think that most of them are from Philadelphia?

[DaleCooper]

I need to go to sleep soon, but can somebody give me an unbiased, no-BS, non-optimistic, non-pessimistic answer to this question: Should we be worried about Pennsylvania?

[DaleCooper]

I need to go to sleep soon, but can somebody give me an unbiased, no-BS, non-optimistic, non-pessimistic answer to this question: Should we be worried about Pennsylvania?

No.

No BS? I can sleep easy and most likely wake up to a Biden presidency?

[DaleCooper]

Apparently, unless there are some crazy surprises, a conservative estimate would indicate that Biden is on track to end up with a thin but safe lead in Pennsylvania once these 450,000 ballots are counted.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/mbeisen/status/1324270189207154693

This seems accurate to me, but can anyone offer any insight?

[DaleCooper]

Just a heads up, Bob Casey will be on CNN in an hour.

This is what I'm waiting for. I feel like if he's no longer confident, then it's time to worry, but perhaps he can shed some light on what's going on in the state.

[DaleCooper]

Just a heads up, Bob Casey will be on CNN in an hour.

This is what I'm waiting for. I feel like if he's no longer confident, then it's time to worry, but perhaps he can shed some light on what's going on in the state.

Have you been watching his Twitter vids?

I did. Wasn't sure what to make of his call for "patience" after learning that there were fewer votes than thought.

[DaleCooper]

GA still on track for Biden.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 79,173 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~464,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 192,300 of them - (41.5%)

NV - Biden up by 7,647 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~194,200 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 93,300 of them - (48.0%)

GA - Biden down by 18,540 (96% counted)

Of the remaining ~204,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 111,500 of them - (54.5%)

PA - Biden down by 164,414 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~784,672 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 474,600 of them - (60.5%)

AK - Biden down by 51,400 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 93,200 of them - (69.0%)

This plot shows how Biden wins each state by just plotting the drop in % needed to win. Obviously, when Biden falls below 50%, he is in the lead and on the way to 100% vote counted.



Based on the current trajectory, Biden should hit the front in GA before the end of vote counting provided there are 200,000 votes left to count.

May I ask where you're getting these numbers for the remaining votes?

[DaleCooper]

However, this is from Boockvar herself last night at 10PM. DOS website also had about this amount at 9pm last night. There has been some overnight counting, but it looks like there has only been a ~150K difference from 9/10pm last night to now. (6.2m last night, 6.35m right now)

So that would mean we have about ~600K left

https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1324188579162132480

It seems pretty clear that as of a few hours ago there were approximately 475k mail-in ballots left to count in Pennsylvania, but is it possible that the remainder of that 600K was counted but not reported?

[DaleCooper]

I'm preparing myself for the worst-case scenario which is Biden down by about 150k with about 450k left to count, but I'm not understanding how everyone could've "lost" (for lack of a better word) those couple hundred thousand votes that never seemed to get reported. Was it a mistake, or were they not reporting remaining vote totals accurately as they released results?

[DaleCooper]

I'm preparing myself for the worst-case scenario which is Biden down by about 150k with about 450k left to count, but I'm not understanding how everyone could've "lost" (for lack of a better word) those couple hundred thousand votes that never seemed to get reported. Was it a mistake, or were they not reporting remaining vote totals accurately as they released results?

Well who was reporting the 450K? It's possible people didn't have the correct figures. I'm going directly off of the DOS website/Boockvar who had it about 750K left at 10pm last night. The figure was 6.2M counted in PA at that point, and now it's 6.35M, so that would mean 600K left have to be *counted* as of yet it would appear. But it's possible that many of them have been *processed* but not *counted* so maybe thats where people are getting other totals from

Either way, Philly has *at least* 120K outstanding and that would nearly narrow the margin alone for Biden, since they're going like 90-10 for him.

It seems to originate from this man, a reporter in PA

https://twitter.com/julianrouth/status/1324226168384606208

[DaleCooper]

Wasserman still being a Biden win, due to Trump underperforming his margins, and Biden doing well in rural counties like Bethlehem where he is leading by 0.4(Trump won it 2016).  He spoke to a PA GOP spokesman who said Trump "is in deep trouble".

Where'd he say that? Not on Twitter

[DaleCooper]

Suburb Philly shift in PA with mostly completed:

Montgomery County
2016: Hillary +21.3
2020: Biden +26.0

Chester County
2016: Hillary +9.4
2020: Biden +16.6

And Trump seems to have overperformed his 2016 margins almost nowhere, correct?

[DaleCooper]

If Casey thinks that Biden could potentially be ahead with the Philly votes alone, unless he's including suburban counties, then there has to be much more than 120k votes to count there, I would think.

[DaleCooper]

If Casey thinks that Biden could potentially be ahead with the Philly votes alone, unless he's including suburban counties, then there has to be much more than 120k votes to count there, I would think.

He said there's at least 400,000 votes in SEPA alone.

I see, so that 450k votes must only refer to the uncounted votes, not unreported votes.