Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3256604f-6b69-4e9a-8e96-cd8627c0e5f8

Interactive map of how CDs voted in 2020 for Pres. Good resource. Also there's the map in the background so you can see exactly what communities a given CD takes in

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590045084548235265?cxt=HHwWgoDUlY_l_JAsAA...

Here in northeast NJ turnout is also going to suck because there's literally nothing to vote on beyond uber safe congressional seats like NJ-08 and NJ-10 where no one has run a serious campaign.

If VA-02 actually has low turnout, that'll be interesting considering there is a key race there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As far as Virginia...

now do you see why I have been pretty gung ho about Wexton having a competitive race? Nothing on top of the ballot to turn them out..

But if he wins.. Cao.. enjoy your two year stunt as congressman. You ain't winning in 2024.

Vega.. enjoy your two years maybe four or six depending who is president.

I feel pretty confident in saying Wexton will win and it won't be that close.

VA-07 does worry me a bit more though because unlike VA-10, you don't have as large of a liberal white base and it seems like right now, voter turnout is strongest among white voters, both liberal and more conservative whites.

[ProgressiveModerate]

VA-10 will be close.

If you do not like that, to bad!

As far as Virginia...

now do you see why I have been pretty gung ho about Wexton having a competitive race? Nothing on top of the ballot to turn them out..

But if he wins.. Cao.. enjoy your two year stunt as congressman. You ain't winning in 2024.

Vega.. enjoy your two years maybe four or six depending who is president.

I feel pretty confident in saying Wexton will win and it won't be that close.

VA-07 does worry me a bit more though because unlike VA-10, you don't have as large of a liberal white base and it seems like right now, voter turnout is strongest among white voters, both liberal and more conservative whites.

This is 2022, not 2024.

What data is suggesting VA-10 will be close (as in less than 5%)? The district is pretty geopolitically homogenous, so it'd be really hard to use the turnout differential argument, and unlike say VA-03 nad VA-04, or VA-07 Dems are not dependent upon the black vote or Hispanic vote to win the district.

Also the district has basically swung in line with the state in recent statewide elections. It may have a bit of residual R downballot support but it's nothing significantly massive realtive to the rest of the state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Still at work but from what I gather tonight will be worse than even I thought ?

It's honestly really hard to make conclusions since most of this data is anecdotal and the hard data we do have can be hard to interpret in it's true larger context. Go back and look at how much of a rollercoaster the 2020 result thread was.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Idk if this is anything representative of the rest of the nation, but E-Day turnout in NYC seems to be quite poor (liberal and largely white parts of Brooklyn to be specific). If Rs hold the statewide NY races close, low NYC turnout will be the reason.

Fun fact; in 2020 if you equalized turnout across congressional districts in NY, Biden would've won the state by over 27% which is pretty significant.

[ProgressiveModerate]

would it surprise you if Rs win 40% of latinos statewide?

In what state. In Florida, it's expected but in a place like NY, it's pretty much impossible

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/pasquines_us/status/1590050197727744001

This shows a huge political shift, honestly maybe comparing this year to 2014 was underselling it.

I just want to say this is Guam which isn't even an official state and is hence very disconnected politically. Also, this dude has no actual voting power which means how voters make their choice is very different.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What time do IN/KY results start to roll in? Not talking about polls closing, rather actual results. Probably best for my sanity to set an alarm for that time instead of trying to read the Twitter tea leaves.

In 2020 us was slow for 20 minutes, but there were a few rural counties that counted very fast and had almost everything in within 30 minutes, which was the early signs that Trump would hold up fine in rural areas. Larger counties took far longer and by the time those were done, we had a celaré picture of where things were headed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/aligarfield_/status/1590054089718919168?s=20&t=9OcCwUqYg...

For reference turnout in 2018 was 88 percent.

Dane is always a very very high turnout County so this ain’t really a surprise. Infact Dane being so highly turnout and relatively fast growing is the only reason Dems are viable in statewide races in WI in normal years; if Madison was a more “normal” city Dems would be toast.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So what are we thinking for senate/house based off of this?

General sense I’m getting (could be very very wrong):

1. White voters across the board have good turnout which generally favors Rs, but this includes white liberals as well which are key in a lot of suburban and coastal seats.

2. Dems face problems with minority voters, both in terms of turnout and margin.

3. Republicans don’t quite get Trump levels of turnout in rural areas, but don’t crash either

Again huge grains of salt cause imma prolly be salty by the end of the night

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wasserman ringing the alarms.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590062540381630465?t=Wu_cQKm5FK6ntji9VlYp...

He’s seen enough.

In all seriousness, I do wonder how fast the House will be called by the media and election nerds on Twitter. The media will def be cautious and probably won’t call it until Republicans are literally at or right under the 218 number is terms of called races, but can east coast results tell us enough about the story on the west coast to make a conclusion by say 11?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems might hold up better in white college areas, see NH and completely bomb in NV.

This sort of aligns with what we saw in special elections like NY-19, MN-01, and NE-01 as well. It also seems like Ann Arbor in MI is doing amazing and getting close to 2020 levels in turnout. However, this could be a bad thing for Dems at the state legislative level if they over-pack themselves into these high turnout college town communities.

[ProgressiveModerate]

That does it. I don't think any amount of drumbeating about not drawing sweeping conclusions from turnout reports hours before polls close will convince anyone. See you nerds at 7:00 PM EST.

Democrats are not turning out in urban cores, hide from it all you want that is a very bad sign and it's clear we've lost. The Guam flip is also indicative of an anti-democrat party enviorment given how democratic it normally is.

Fully agree on the first part, especially urban cores where there’s been a relative lack of campaigning on Dems part. Places like Philly and Atlanta where there has been a lot of campaigning seem to be doing fine. But using Guam as a barometer for the nation is like using a ruler to measure the temperature outside

[ProgressiveModerate]

That does it. I don't think any amount of drumbeating about not drawing sweeping conclusions from turnout reports hours before polls close will convince anyone. See you nerds at 7:00 PM EST.

Democrats are not turning out in urban cores, hide from it all you want that is a very bad sign and it's clear we've lost. The Guam flip is also indicative of an anti-democrat party enviorment given how democratic it normally is.

.... Philly and Dane turnout are great right now.

Dane is an anomaly, so is philly. The main places we're just seeing horrendous democrat turnout especialy heavily latino city cores.

Good thing the contested races are in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and not Florida and Texas, right?

Bad Hispanic turnout and margins could be the death kiss for Dems in the house, especially with all the southwestern swing districts that have notable Hispanic populations

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dane is an anomaly, so is philly. The main places we're just seeing horrendous democrat turnout especialy heavily latino city cores.

Heavily Latino city cores ALWAYS have horrendous turnout. The more important question is do you have some real indication that it is MORE horrendous than usual?

Actually RGV has had relatively amazing turnout by historical standards for a midterm, but at this point it’s hard to know who that favors. Not necessarily surprising given both sides have invested far more than usual in the region.

Zapata County which is notorious for being the shock Trump flip is already well above 2018 turnout.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Regardless of how good and bad the night is - are we thinking it’s a near certainty Laxalt wins?

No. We don’t know exactly who these “Independents” or “unaffiliated” voted are, and in the end the D-R registration breakdown will prolly be close.

I think he’s favored though

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone here think we could see unexpectedly close races in any of the 8 “Democratic seats” in Florida, especially given the horrendous numbers for Dems in Miami

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1590070658532511744

That’s actually insane. I never understand why in AZ specifically the EV-ED gap is so large. You’d think the relatively high concentration of older gop voters might take advantage of mail voting as they do in places like Florida and stuff but nope ig not.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/ChristianHeiens/status/1590068716120571905
More bad news.

Notice how he does not post any actual specific numbers, he just makes a broad brush assertion with no particular data to back it up.

Also a bit of a lol cause about 10 pages ago on this thread everyone was talking about how low VA turnout seemed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly I feel like we have a mix of posts "from the experts" here and some are far more informative than others.

Stats about raw numbers and vote totals are things that really should be taken seriously, especially when put into context and considered in comparison to historical elections.

On the flip side, you have a lot of people just screaming "candidate X is screwed" without providing any real evidence to back it up.

And as always, just a reminder that even in the states that offer EDay partisan breakdown, that can't always tell you everything. Same goes for turnout; you can have high or low turnout but in a lot of places it can be unclear who that benefits.

I also think there's a bit of bias in the numbers that are being tweeted about vs those not being tweeted about. For example, someone like Patrick Ruffini has had a very clear narrative this entire cycle so ofc is going to share numbers that endorse that narrative while holding back the numbers that don't. Just because a certain stat isn't shared doesn't mean it isn't important.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hard to judge from turnout reports, but...did literally anyone have Barnes and Masters both winning?

No, but given polarization and also just looking at who the party bases are in WI and AZ, all these people saying Kelly would win by 4 as Johnson won by 6 didn't really make a lot of sense.

Yes, universal swing isn't real, but there still are national correlations which would make it hard for AZ to vote significantly to the left of WI in a midterm election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking good so far, though the only race I’m really sweating is IL Supreme Court

Illinois is interesting because there are a lot of dominoes that all fall at once given the abundance of Biden + 10-15 seats, the state Supreme Court, and a few row offices. The GOP may also have a very very small chance at at least 1 chamber of the legislature which would probably fall at around the same time.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Isn't it just like 12:25 in the west?

I actually feel like this is important for folks to remember. I feel like we have a bias to just assume it's roughly the same time of day out there as it is a long the coast here (and I'm sure the reverse is true too).

Here in NYC area, it's already starting to get a bit orange outside