NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Safe R now that we have the first GCB poll out: R+12. The Republican will win by double digits.

This far out, beacuse of all the uncertainty and the potential for things to change, I'm rating this as lean R, though it'll prolly end up as likely R

We get 1 R+12 poll 2 years out before Biden has even had a chance to govern, and act like that what's bound to happen. Polls also currently indicate Democrats are competative in the GA runoffs right now, which doesn't match an R+12 environment.

If we start getting a bunch of R + 8 or more GCB 2022 polls, then I'll start getting worried, but not getting too freaked out just yet. My current guess is R+3 in the senate and Rs probably flip the House with ~230 seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Jeff Jackson will probably be a strong canidate up in the wrong year. Really wish he had run this year. Lean R for now, even if 2022 is a 2002 redux, it's challenging to see how Democrats will overcome the partisanship of the state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any news here?

Dems prolly won’t win it but the margin could have implications on how contested NC will be in 2024

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any news here?

Dems prolly won’t win it but the margin could have implications on how contested NC will be in 2024

It's been one of the quietest races of the cycle so far. Considering how the more prominent races are going for the GOP, that's a good thing for the Republicans.

Tedd Budd and Cheri Beasley are both relatively "boring" candidates who are running pretty normal campaigns.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any news here?

Dems prolly won’t win it but the margin could have implications on how contested NC will be in 2024

It's been one of the quietest races of the cycle so far. Considering how the more prominent races are going for the GOP, that's a good thing for the Republicans.

Tedd Budd and Cheri Beasley are both relatively "boring" candidates who are running pretty normal campaigns.

Except Beasley is the one actually out there, getting coverage, raising money. Is Budd even campaigning? He seems as silent as Vance in OH, with not much money to boot either.

At least Budd doesn't have the same representation as Vance. If this race had the same dynamics as Ohio Dems might actually have a real shot at winning but right now I'm not seeing it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://indyweek.com/news/northcarolina/with-go-everywhere-strategy-beasley-breaks-with-dem-playbook-for-statewide-races/

Beasley doesn't seem bad at all to be honest. But I suppose the current gop environment is going to screw her in such a polarized environment.

From what I've heard, it seems that Beasley's campaign has been picking up as of late, and I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say she's a little stronger than Budd is. That said, "a little stronger" is most likely not sufficient to flip NC in the absence of a more favorable national environment.

I think Beasley previously being a judge rather than a true politician probably helps her a bit cause people look at her in a slightly less partisan way than they would at Budd who was a congressman.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1559213501008056325?t=X2dDW_aOqSxWP7tl...
I don't get this call, Budd is a generic R the type NC likes and is running in a Trump state. Especially after witnessing 2020's NC senate race and 2022 will likely be a redder enviornment than 2020. He even leads in the polling aggregate.

I thought Beasley narrowly leads in the polling aggregate but either way it doesn't really matter because there's been a lack of high-quality polls in the state and there's like 10%+ "undecides".

The DDHQ forecast seems to really weight incumbency and polls disproportionately which is why it got moved into the tossup category

[ProgressiveModerate]

Rs are definitely favored here but I can't shake the thought that Beasley could pull off a 0.3% win or so like this:

1) Beat Biden by a few in Wake, Forsyth, New Hanover from angry white college liberals high turnout.
2) Run ahead of Biden with rural blacks
3) Trump off ballot means rural whites a slightly lower percentage of the electorate.

New Hanover County... Lol. If anything Durham and Orange counties would be the most prominent

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not that I agree with this, but in what world is 61.5% probability a tossup?

Different sites use different quantitative ranges for their qualitative ratings.  DDHQ considers anything closer than 65% as Tossup, which IMO is an excessively wide range.  Their full list is here:

Solid - 95-100%
Likely - 80-95%
Lean - 65-80%
Tossup - less than 65%

Honestly, I think these percentages seem about right. I generally prefer the addition of a tilt rating though

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not that I agree with this, but in what world is 61.5% probability a tossup?

Different sites use different quantitative ranges for their qualitative ratings.  DDHQ considers anything closer than 65% as Tossup, which IMO is an excessively wide range.  Their full list is here:

Solid - 95-100%
Likely - 80-95%
Lean - 65-80%
Tossup - less than 65%

Honestly, I think these percentages seem about right. I generally prefer the addition of a tilt rating though

I'd probably go with something like this:

Solid - 95+
Likely - 80-95
Lean - 60-80
Tilt - 51-60
Tossup - 50/50

Tbf then basically nothing would be rated as tossup. Why not just eliminate the category all together?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not that I agree with this, but in what world is 61.5% probability a tossup?

Different sites use different quantitative ranges for their qualitative ratings.  DDHQ considers anything closer than 65% as Tossup, which IMO is an excessively wide range.  Their full list is here:

Solid - 95-100%
Likely - 80-95%
Lean - 65-80%
Tossup - less than 65%

Honestly, I think these percentages seem about right. I generally prefer the addition of a tilt rating though

I'd probably go with something like this:

Solid - 95+
Likely - 80-95
Lean - 60-80
Tilt - 51-60
Tossup - 50/50

Tbf then basically nothing would be rated as tossup. Why not just eliminate the category all together?

Because I try to avoid calling something a tossup if at all possible. 

Ah. I think it’s still fine to call something a tossup at 55-45 or even 60-40

[ProgressiveModerate]

POLITICO calls out North Carolina in their piece about the NRSC cancelling ad buys:

The cuts — totaling roughly $13.5 million since Aug. 1 — come as the Republicans’ Senate campaign committee is being forced to “stretch every dollar we can,” said a person familiar with the NRSC’s deliberations. Republican nominees in critical states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina — places the GOP must defend this fall — have failed to raise enough money to get on air themselves, requiring the NRSC to make cuts elsewhere to accommodate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/15/gop-slashes-ads-in-key-senate-battlegrounds-00051969

Cutting Arizona and Nevada for Ohio and North Carolina, has Rick Scott lost his mind?

Maybe the GOP is working at all cost to prevent 52 Dem Senators since if that happened (and Dems kept the House), A LOT of things the GOP would be unhappy about would happen including probably DC statehood and national gerrymandering ban.

The GOP knows as long as they've flipped the House they've effectively stalled Dems agenda

The only real benefit for Ds to continue to hold the Senate is judges (which is a big thing don't get me wrong) but it seems unlikely a SCOTUS vacancy will open up by 2024 (but who knows).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ok seriously, why is one of Budd's #1 issues the border crisis? Sure it's a problem, but this is... NC, not exactly a border state or even a state with high Hispanic population. He brings it up in several of his ads... why?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Republicans have cut the Democratic Registration Edge in North Carolina by 116K from November 2020 to August 27th 2022
https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1565706536416157698

There are more Independents now living in the Tar Heel State than Democrats or Republicans.

Not exactly surprising. Dem registration has been on the decline for a long time even as the state has stated stagnant or even shifted slightly left. A lot of decreasing Dem registration has to do with ancestral Dems in rural parts of the state as we see in states like WV and KY as well.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1568276056246988803

Ah if only policy actually translated into votes. The only reason why I think Beasley is still in this is because if the theme we saw of Liberal Dem communities having disproportionately high turnout in special elections continues, I could see a scenario where insane margins out of places like Durham, Wake, and Mecklenburg, and Buncombe counties puts her over the top. I think it's probably smart for her to run mostly on widely popular Dem issues and not try to be a "moderate hero"

[ProgressiveModerate]

One place I'm really curious about is Robeson county and the greater Sandhills region generally. The area swung hard right in 2020 due to Trump's relationships with the Lumbee tribe and a bit of black depopulation continuing. Literally every recent statewide Dem has had at least a modestly better performance than Biden in this area. While it likely won't swing the election on it's own, in a close race it really could matter.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kinda crazy to think that Cal Cunningham’s candidacy was sunk by the world’s most mild affair but the state also voted for Donald Trump lol.

Anyways, if Beasley pulls this out, it will be a great win for America. She will make an excellent Senator.

I still think without the Scandal he would’ve lost. A lot of people argue he had a pretty consistent over performance of Biden in the suburbs but undeperfmed in most Dem shifting urban and suburban areas, but that was true of a lot of Dems in 2020

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone who lives in NC have a good gauge on how “religious” NC actually is? Much of Budds campaign seems to be about being a good upstanding Christian citizen who holds conservative values and whatever.

Beasley main message seems to be trying to paint herself as an outsider and Budd as an insider. While I think painting Budd as a self-serving DC politician can be a strong message, trying to paint herself as an outsider isn’t a great idea imo cause she was literally Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court most citizens look on that as a very high up and far away position to hold.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Axios partner Engagious/Schlesinger recently gathered 11 swing voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Eight of 11 saw a picture of Beasley and said they could name her, while only 4 of 11 said they could name Budd.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1571968288539942914

I don't live in NC but was Beasley particularly well liked as a State Supreme Justice? Just because they are more likely able to identify her doesn't necessarily mean they like her especially in a case like this.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Senate Leadership Fund is dropping another $3.52M on this race. It was the top amount of money going to the 5-6 senate races.

I truly believe this one is close. GOP should not have to spending all this money here.

It could also be because this seat even if leans R right now would be seat number 52 for Dems and if Dems get to 52 seats Dems would likely be able to get a signfiicantly larger chunk of their agenda done, much of with the GOP would be very unhappy with.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Unlike in 2020, Republicans don't have an incumbent this year. Democrats have a shot.

Also Beasley is objectively better than Cunningham though I'd also argue even though he isn't the incumbent, Budd has a bit more Charisma than someone like Tillis. Both Beasley and Budd seem to be running very serious campaigns and are aware of the traps their parties can often get stuck in and have been careful to avoid those. We've seen Budd avoiding a lot of the more controversial topics other GOP candidates have chosen to embrace, whereas Beasley is doing her best to paint Budd as the out of touch politician.

The main issue for Dems is overall this year seems to be less favorable, but at the same time southern states tend to be a bit under reactive to the national environment, plus if the turnout dynamics we've seen in special elections means anything, that would bode really well for Dems in NC so who knows. Comfortable Lean R for now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Budd is doing just fine right now considering NC polling.

Tillis basically never led in any of the Major Polling Outfits in his Race against Hagan.

He still underperformed the partisanship of his state pretty big time given the year and also the fact NC was redder in 2014. Polarization wasn’t as bad in 2014 tbf. In 2020, the poling miss in NC-Sen was far more severe and inexcusable and may have been due to the scandal causing the race to close last minute. Reminder that most polls had Cunningham outperforming Biden iirc, and he regularly hit that 48-50% range.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC was redder in 2014

[gestures wildly at the GOP gaining row offices in 2016, NC being widely expected to at least swing D in the 2016 Presidential, row office elections swinging R in 2020...)

Ok I think I misspoke. It’s trended left on the Pres level, but Dems have lost a ton of crossover/residual support downballot on the state level.

A senate race I think of as federal and more closely aligns with Pres results than Gov results; senate races just lag a cycle or so behind in terms of shifts.

Going forwards, I’d suspect Nc will trend left since there seems to be far more upside for Dems as thing stand today and population shifts are particularly horrible for the gop.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is rather interesting

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1577312808974356480

Considering generational turnover and growth patterns this isn’t too surprising. For example, Wake County alone will have ~40k more residents than in 2020. Even if only 20k of them actually vote, that could def have an impact around the margins.

On the flip side, I’d be curious to know how NC’s black belt is holding up cause the depopulation of it has been absolutely brutal.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone got a link to tonight's debate?