2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

I still think FL 20th is quite bad and should have been chopped to Broward only FWIW although I do think Palm Beach AA's and Broward AA's are decently close enough. After all South Florida is just one giant super metro.  It's still bad although closer to IL 4th I guess? . Infact FL Rs could have done what IL Dems did. It's still going to be fun to see how DeSantis explains that away. Really no logic behind it in the end.

Also One thing to note is the current map in Orlando for FL 10th is 28.5% black while the new one is 28.3% black. Really hard to argue this is splitting the Orlando black community .

And yes there isn't really much justification to crossing the bay. It's clearly the ringer for unfair partisan advantage. To be fair the way it looks is actually fairly compact to a normie but its obviously a gerrymander.  The best argument I have for splitting St.Petersburg off is that Pinellas county outside of St.Pete is a fairly uniform area of densely populated suburbia and St.Pete is the odd area of the county. This actually is true but the idea of crossing the bay is lol. It definetely is just a hope that the court lets it slide similar to how Oregon Dems crossed the Cascades by arguing that Bend is different from the rest of the East.

Overall you are correct in that the map although very aggressive is actually somewhat similar to what Nevada D's did. They maximized the ceiling/floor in a good/neutral year but didn't max out the gerrymander such as by going all the way to Reno which makes it riskier in a bad year.

Ye pretty much agree with your entire post. St. Peters def has a different vibe than the rest of Pinellas and that can be backed up racially and politically but crossing the bay is one of the 10 sins of redistricting (alongside splitting Bucks and having Minneapolis and St. Paul in one, and yes, crossing the cascades).

As for FL-10, I'd make the argument the black population should naturally increase given FL-10 had a 26% growth and is overpopulated by 14%. That may not seem like a lot, but the fact the black population stayed basically the same shows how DeSantis's map shaves off both some of the white and black communities in the district.

IIRC the original senate proposal had it like 30%. In the end this is extremely easy to argue against in court.

30 is about the highest it can realistically go froma  topline perspective unless you reach up into Sanford, but DeSantis's map knocks it out of a plurality in a Dem primary which is also important. A 30% black seat that's a D pack is very different than a 30% black seat with a lot of white Rs.

Yes the primary argument is there but in the end , it shouldn't really be a largely debated argument in court. 28.5 to 28.3% is going to be the key statistic and that will be the end of that.

We'll see. To what degree FL-10 is and was black functioning is really debatable; it's just not a good look when there was never a problem with the House config which objectively performs better.

[ProgressiveModerate]

And there goes the house for the next 10 years.

This country is so ed

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1514351540945002498

calm yourself.

The house was already rigged for the Republicans and as of a few weeks ago the maps were supposed to be remarkably close to even. With this map it’s back to what it’s always been - rigged for the Republicans. Dems would need to win the popular vote by 8 points to even have a half decent majority.

The country is majority Democrat and you’d never know it.

After this midterm Dems might not control either chamber of congress for literally 8 years at minimum.

Uh the median seat will prolly be like a point to the right of the nation. I’d say there’s a hood chance Dems control the house for 8 straight years.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a huge stretch but might as well figure what the argument will be.
The justification for the 14th will likely be one of a district that covers nearly the entiriety of Tampa bay. The argument can be extended in that it takes those super R precicnts on SW Hillsborough so therefore it is not packing Democrats.

Infact it isn't really very efficient as a pack. One can draw a district entirely within Hillsborough  that is quite a bit more D from Biden +19 to Biden +23 and still be quite compact and definetely not a legal issue.  However it is still is important to note how efficient it is to take those precincts from St.Pete and make a Lean to Likely R instead of a Lean D seat while at the same time still being quite efficient in Hillsborough as the worst seat for R's is still Trump +5.

Also is a big stretch to claim to use the St.Johns river in Duval but then not follow the Tampa Bay shore.

One thing that sorta helps Rs outside of the 2 black Miami seats is that Dems don't really pack in cities the same way they do in other states. Considering how large Tampa metro is, there really aren't that many hyper-Dem Miami seats. Not to mention the 3 inevitable Dem + 15 seats in the Miami metro that sorta have to be there because they get stuck. A lot of the Dem "packs" in this map really aren't all that great of packs; it's more the GOP pretty effectively distributes its votes outside the 8 Dem seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The new FL-14 looks like a compact fair district someone took a massive bite out of.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What the heck is the purpose of that eastern shore tail?

$10 says DeSantis got lazy/tired of dealing with Tampa precincts.

If you ignore the water, it makes the seat look pretty compact.

Yeah, I think it's about perception.  An average person just looking at this map will think it's one of the least gerrymandered maps in the country because it looks really clean and there aren't a lot of weird shapes.  Ohio's map is very similar in this regard- neither look like gerrymanders to the naked eye.  On the other hand, something like the 2010s Maryland map or original 2010s Pennsylvania map have a bunch of crazy snakes.  That gets average people to feel that it's more of a gerrymander.

It's actually the second most compact map in the nation , I excluded single and dual district maps from this. single obviously and dual because they have a lot of deviation for the average quite easily.


Ohio is not like that and nor did they try. It definetly is quite ugly and  in many areas. Taking Cincinatti to Warren County is disgusting.  The unusual thing about DeSantis's map is it really does not take any incumbent into account other than maybe shoring up Salazar a few points.

The thing is "compactness", while it may affect public perception, doesn't really make a map any more or less gerrymandered, especially in a state like Florida where you have incredibly dense communities next to swamplands where no one lives.

Furthermore, a lot of the actual gerrymanders that do exist (IL, NY, TX) could've been made far more compact but equally brutal, just visually looks nicer.

I would agree that this Florida map is a tier below IL or TX's gerrymander though because it's compact, and the GOP didn't go out of the way to create true max packs or have all 20 of their districts be safe or even likely R in a normal cycle.

I still don't get why DeSantis didn't dismantle 20 if he's really for compactness over minority representation. It would make South Florida look a lot nicer without really affecting partisanship, and FL-20 could still be minority functioning.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Weird to think DeSantis map really only has 3 true Dem packs. Everything else is less than Biden + 20 iirc

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1516470957472464909

By the way DeSantis hired the same guy who drew the TX gerrymander.

At least the FL map is a lot cleaner lol.

Ngl that’s kinda suprising as the 2 maps are drawn in very different styles, though FL’s concessions may have been to lower the legal risk.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm just worried about SCOTUS here. Could the lower courts get around that by suggesting the compact Jacksonville district instead?

That's what I wish they'd do from the start but Jacksonville isn't really a solid performing district while the current FL 5 is uncompact. The main argument seems to be that it violates the state anti-gerrymandering provisions not really national. Based on national metrics you'll have a hard time arguing this map vioaltes VRA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Welcome to ping pong

[ProgressiveModerate]

Based Labarga.

Fr though that’s such a cop out on the courts part, to say they don’t have jurisdiction over it.

I know a bunch of people are gonna start comparing this to NY, but tbf, NY Dems map was truly worse than Floridas R from basically every metric. Florida Rs were just a lot smarter. I hope the map backfires on them as they seem a bit cocky with Miami and Tampa specifically.

Texas is prolly the next legal Avenue Dems should go down. It likely won’t be very fruitful but there is a serious case R violated VRA, namely in San Antonio and DFW. If the court just redraws a small chunk of the map, it could make TX-28 redder but in exchange for a safe D San Antonio seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Based Labarga.

Fr though that’s such a cop out on the courts part, to say they don’t have jurisdiction over it.

I know a bunch of people are gonna start comparing this to NY, but tbf, NY Dems map was truly worse than Floridas R from basically every metric. Florida Rs were just a lot smarter. I hope the map backfires on them as they seem a bit cocky with Miami and Tampa specifically.

Texas is prolly the next legal Avenue Dems should go down. It likely won’t be very fruitful but there is a serious case R violated VRA, namely in San Antonio and DFW. If the court just redraws a small chunk of the map, it could make TX-28 redder but in exchange for a safe D San Antonio seat.

No offense, but I’m genuinely not sure what you’re talking about Re: FL vs. NY.  The FL gerrymander is one of the worst in the country (although not as bad as TX or OH).  The NY map was a mild-to-medium gerrymander.  

In terms of partisan outcome they’re similar levels of gerrymandered.

However, the FL map at least makes attempts to follow COIs, County lines, and have some competitive districts. They def made a lot of favorable decisions but didn’t maximize the gerrymander everywhere. NYdems map was horrendous for what it accomplished

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah the FL-05 vs FL-20 thing is def hypocrisy; the only remotely good argument you could make there is that FL-20 is actually 50% whereas FL-05 under any reasonable config isn't.

My hope is by 2030, a Jacksonville-based Congressional seat that can be functionally black with no arm to Tallahassee will be possible, and you won't have to do an awkward warp-around district. If greater Jacksonville continues to shift left, the GOP might just want to cede a Dem vote sink there, but that isn't a given this far out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What kind of sucks is no matter what, you have to do something a bit geographically awkward to achieve a black opportunity seat in north Florida. The old FL-05 config that connects Jacksonville and Tallahassee if obviously just a long district, and while a Jacksonville based district in itself may seem compact, it forces a 2nd wrap around district that's a bit awkward.

If it were up to me, I'd just go for the Jacksonville based district, even if it's black % is a bit lower. At this point, it should still be enough to be functional and the black population in Jacksonville is growing overall, plus it sets an easier precedent for the future of a functional minority Jacksonville based seat.

I'm curious if by 2030, assuming there's no major federal or state redistricting reform and Rs still control the pen in FL, if they might just cede a Jacksonville based seat due to growth and shifts and Ds generally gaining ground

[ProgressiveModerate]

What kind of sucks is no matter what, you have to do something a bit geographically awkward to achieve a black opportunity seat in north Florida. The old FL-05 config that connects Jacksonville and Tallahassee if obviously just a long district, and while a Jacksonville based district in itself may seem compact, it forces a 2nd wrap around district that's a bit awkward.

If it were up to me, I'd just go for the Jacksonville based district, even if it's black % is a bit lower. At this point, it should still be enough to be functional and the black population in Jacksonville is growing overall, plus it sets an easier precedent for the future of a functional minority Jacksonville based seat.

I'm curious if by 2030, assuming there's no major federal or state redistricting reform and Rs still control the pen in FL, if they might just cede a Jacksonville based seat due to growth and shifts and Ds generally gaining ground

Yeah. Jacksonville is one of the few places in Florida where Democrats are making gains, or at least not losing ground. DeSantis's margins in Duval, Clay, Nassau and St. John's Counties in 2022 were basically the same as Rick Scott's in 2014, despite the former doing nearly 20 points better statewide.

I think it's in part because compared to places like Miami and Tampa, it's less "culturally Florida", and therefore is more likely to have the swings one would expect given the changing Demographics.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do the Republicans have any type of rebuttal to the point that a D-leaning seat fully in Duval County can be easily drawn? Because that's not only obviously true it completely invalidates any "compactness" claims they're making.

Ig that even though a Duval based seat itself is compact, it forces another district to be uncompact? You either need a wrap-around suburban Jacksonville seat or a rural district that grabs Nassau County. Still a pretty weak argument though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do the Republicans have any type of rebuttal to the point that a D-leaning seat fully in Duval County can be easily drawn? Because that's not only obviously true it completely invalidates any "compactness" claims they're making.

Ig that even though a Duval based seat itself is compact, it forces another district to be uncompact? You either need a wrap-around suburban Jacksonville seat or a rural district that grabs Nassau County. Still a pretty weak argument though.

The state senate did propose a Duval only district in 2021, so obviously they thought it would work at some point.  I *think* the only real argument against it would be that african americans wouldn't have sufficient numbers to reliably control the Dem primary...?

That’s a bad argument because the remaining Dem primary vote is fractured between low turnout Hispanics and a few whites. Blacks should easily be 60%+ of the primary electorate

[ProgressiveModerate]

Even if a redraw like that happened (doubt) I still think Dems would blow the races in the newly drawn Biden seats, especially the 2 in Miami.