2020 New York Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is Stephen Dunn Torie?
https://vhdshf2oms2wcnsvk7sdv3so.blob.core.windows.net/thearp-media/documents/Stephen_Dunns_Resp._Letter_to_Court_5.4.22.pdf

leaving only the far western edge of Putnam County in
NY-18, in order to cause the NY-18 incumbent to still reside in his district, who lives on the Hudson
River in the town of Cold Springs. Very naughty that, and illegal.

Yes, because the paper uses the phrase "chops" and not "splits" like literally everyone else.

Dead giveaway (not that I like outing people on anonymous forums).

I actually ran into this when I submitted maps on the Oregon website, it requires your name be displayed and I almost posted the map on the forum, luckily I caught myself and stopped a few seconds short of posting the map in the Oregon thread.

If Dunn isn't Torie, he seems likely to lean R based on how he defends basically every R possible decision (2 Trump seats in South Brooklyn, Central Valley reconfig, ect). From what I've seen it seems like most Rs or R leaning group maps tend to rely heavily on the Orthodox argument for their districts.

Overall though the Dunn proposal 3 is prolly the best of the "R leaning maps" from a COI and compactness perspective.

Reguardless of whether this is Torie's map or not, I would be curious to know his actual irl leanings and general personality.

Can you guess which map is mine lol? (I don't mind being outed)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is Stephen Dunn Torie?
https://vhdshf2oms2wcnsvk7sdv3so.blob.core.windows.net/thearp-media/documents/Stephen_Dunns_Resp._Letter_to_Court_5.4.22.pdf

leaving only the far western edge of Putnam County in
NY-18, in order to cause the NY-18 incumbent to still reside in his district, who lives on the Hudson
River in the town of Cold Springs. Very naughty that, and illegal.

Yes, because the paper uses the phrase "chops" and not "splits" like literally everyone else.

Dead giveaway (not that I like outing people on anonymous forums).

I actually ran into this when I submitted maps on the Oregon website, it requires your name be displayed and I almost posted the map on the forum, luckily I caught myself and stopped a few seconds short of posting the map in the Oregon thread.

If Dunn isn't Torie, he seems likely to lean R based on how he defends basically every R possible decision (2 Trump seats in South Brooklyn, Central Valley reconfig, ect). From what I've seen it seems like most Rs or R leaning group maps tend to rely heavily on the Orthodox argument for their districts.

Overall though the Dunn proposal 3 is prolly the best of the "R leaning maps" from a COI and compactness perspective.

Reguardless of whether this is Torie's map or not, I would be curious to know his actual irl leanings and general personality.

Can you guess which map is mine lol? (I don't mind being outed)

Dunn is absolutely Torie. He gives the same arguments as he has in this thread. Torie is also known to live in Hoboken, NJ and as Nyvin says uses chops instead of splits.

I believe Torie used to be a moderate Republican from New York City, so it’s not surprising that he has a soft spot of the NY GOP and is willing to draw them a favorable map.

His map isn’t an R gerrymander by any means. I think it’s hard to detach one’s idea of fairness from the existing map, which does carve up a potential compact South Brooklyn district. Any map that draws the Black areas of Brooklyn into White hipster yuppie Brooklyn instead of White ethnic, Jewish, and Chinese Brooklyn will arrive with a SI swing seat and a Safe R (by 2020 pres) south Brooklyn. Either is reasonable. The latter achieves proportionality if that’s the target though.

Also can confirm he is by looking at Torie's profile (don't mean to be creepy).

Also his map isn't really an R gerrymander; none of the maps submitted thus far are full on gerrymanders other than arguably Dem map. His map is justifiable by all means, as are pretty much all the submitted maps. There is more than one "justifiable configuration", his just happens to be one that creates more R seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here would be my genuine review of Torie's map:

What I like:

The creation of an Orthodox and 34% Asian seat in South Brooklyn.

The new Manhattan-based 10th

Relatively low number of county splits, especially upstate

Upstate NY is very compact


What I dislike:

NY-03 crossing the Sound

NYC itself is pretty messy

The elimination of a majority Hispanic seat

NY-11 stretching around South Brooklyn like that

NY-18 is quite long


I have some other smaller things I could say about the map but I don't have time to go through all the ins and outs right now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is Stephen Dunn Torie?
https://vhdshf2oms2wcnsvk7sdv3so.blob.core.windows.net/thearp-media/documents/Stephen_Dunns_Resp._Letter_to_Court_5.4.22.pdf

leaving only the far western edge of Putnam County in
NY-18, in order to cause the NY-18 incumbent to still reside in his district, who lives on the Hudson
River in the town of Cold Springs. Very naughty that, and illegal.

Yes, because the paper uses the phrase "chops" and not "splits" like literally everyone else.

Dead giveaway (not that I like outing people on anonymous forums).

I actually ran into this when I submitted maps on the Oregon website, it requires your name be displayed and I almost posted the map on the forum, luckily I caught myself and stopped a few seconds short of posting the map in the Oregon thread.

If Dunn isn't Torie, he seems likely to lean R based on how he defends basically every R possible decision (2 Trump seats in South Brooklyn, Central Valley reconfig, ect). From what I've seen it seems like most Rs or R leaning group maps tend to rely heavily on the Orthodox argument for their districts.

Overall though the Dunn proposal 3 is prolly the best of the "R leaning maps" from a COI and compactness perspective.

Reguardless of whether this is Torie's map or not, I would be curious to know his actual irl leanings and general personality.

Can you guess which map is mine lol? (I don't mind being outed)

Dunn is absolutely Torie. He gives the same arguments as he has in this thread. Torie is also known to live in Hoboken, NJ and as Nyvin says uses chops instead of splits.

I believe Torie used to be a moderate Republican from New York City, so it’s not surprising that he has a soft spot of the NY GOP and is willing to draw them a favorable map.

His map isn’t an R gerrymander by any means. I think it’s hard to detach one’s idea of fairness from the existing map, which does carve up a potential compact South Brooklyn district. Any map that draws the Black areas of Brooklyn into White hipster yuppie Brooklyn instead of White ethnic, Jewish, and Chinese Brooklyn will arrive with a SI swing seat and a Safe R (by 2020 pres) south Brooklyn. Either is reasonable. The latter achieves proportionality if that’s the target though.

Also can confirm he is by looking at Torie's profile (don't mean to be creepy).

Also his map isn't really an R gerrymander; none of the maps submitted thus far are full on gerrymanders other than arguably Dem map. His map is justifiable by all means, as are pretty much all the submitted maps. There is more than one "justifiable configuration", his just happens to be one that creates more R seats.

I mean his map uses a normal elsewhere whole county configuration for Long Island. Almost certain Republicans would not want that.

On net its neutral. It makes 4 more winnable at the cost of NY-02.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is Stephen Dunn Torie?
https://vhdshf2oms2wcnsvk7sdv3so.blob.core.windows.net/thearp-media/documents/Stephen_Dunns_Resp._Letter_to_Court_5.4.22.pdf

leaving only the far western edge of Putnam County in
NY-18, in order to cause the NY-18 incumbent to still reside in his district, who lives on the Hudson
River in the town of Cold Springs. Very naughty that, and illegal.

Yes, because the paper uses the phrase "chops" and not "splits" like literally everyone else.

Dead giveaway (not that I like outing people on anonymous forums).

I actually ran into this when I submitted maps on the Oregon website, it requires your name be displayed and I almost posted the map on the forum, luckily I caught myself and stopped a few seconds short of posting the map in the Oregon thread.

If Dunn isn't Torie, he seems likely to lean R based on how he defends basically every R possible decision (2 Trump seats in South Brooklyn, Central Valley reconfig, ect). From what I've seen it seems like most Rs or R leaning group maps tend to rely heavily on the Orthodox argument for their districts.

Overall though the Dunn proposal 3 is prolly the best of the "R leaning maps" from a COI and compactness perspective.

Reguardless of whether this is Torie's map or not, I would be curious to know his actual irl leanings and general personality.

Can you guess which map is mine lol? (I don't mind being outed)

Dunn is absolutely Torie. He gives the same arguments as he has in this thread. Torie is also known to live in Hoboken, NJ and as Nyvin says uses chops instead of splits.

I believe Torie used to be a moderate Republican from New York City, so it’s not surprising that he has a soft spot of the NY GOP and is willing to draw them a favorable map.

His map isn’t an R gerrymander by any means. I think it’s hard to detach one’s idea of fairness from the existing map, which does carve up a potential compact South Brooklyn district. Any map that draws the Black areas of Brooklyn into White hipster yuppie Brooklyn instead of White ethnic, Jewish, and Chinese Brooklyn will arrive with a SI swing seat and a Safe R (by 2020 pres) south Brooklyn. Either is reasonable. The latter achieves proportionality if that’s the target though.

Also can confirm he is by looking at Torie's profile (don't mean to be creepy).

Also his map isn't really an R gerrymander; none of the maps submitted thus far are full on gerrymanders other than arguably Dem map. His map is justifiable by all means, as are pretty much all the submitted maps. There is more than one "justifiable configuration", his just happens to be one that creates more R seats.

I mean his map uses a normal elsewhere whole county configuration for Long Island. Almost certain Republicans would not want that.

On net its neutral. It makes 4 more winnable at the cost of NY-02.

 I mean its still Biden +10, No Republican would like that configuration of LI from a partisan standpoint.

In his config it's only Biden + 5; same goes for CD-2. Gives Rs a shot at winning 3 long Island Districts while also having a very good chance of them being reduced to just 1.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Btw, does anyone know how to submit commentary to the NY court? might be a cool thing to do.

You can submit through efiling online. I’ll send it when I get home from school

Thanks!

https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/DocumentList?docketId=kmywkTvfcaoSsQ66zseQsg==&PageNum=6&narrow=

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also lol at all the letters supporting the Dem State Sen and Congressional map.

Like maybe it's ok in some areas but overall it's def the worst in terms of COI and competitiveness and is very similar to what was made illegal.

I feel like a disproportionate amount of public comments are either from the Orthodox Community or one of the metros upstate, or a minority interests group that has a clear political agenda.

One of the recent ones even argues that "changing districts too much would lead to confusion" like bruh.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Damn I wanted to testify too but I have school.

I submitted a revised map right before the deadline don’t think it’s in the system yet though. Fixes some things up and some changes based on public comment but overall pretty simillar. NY-02 and NY-17 get slightly bluer while NY-03, NY-10, and NY-18 hey slightly redder but nothing major.

It kinda combines a lot of the things I like about the Dunn map with my map.

If they end up doing an NY hearing I’ll def go

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there a recording?

[ProgressiveModerate]

My updated proposal btw (on 2020 Pres)

Overall, something like this seems fair from a partisanship standpoint and I think this does a good job at representing COIs, being compact, representing minority interests, and accounting for current lines.

2 relatively safe GOP seats. 9 relatively competitive seats. 15 relatively safe Dem seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hot take- Tories map will be chosen

All due respect to Torie, but gross.  There is no reason New York should have a Republican gerrymander like that as its congressional map.

Literally don't get it--only real thing on there that seems a bit underhanded partisanwise is giving Staten Island Coney Island and Brighton Beach, which are barely contiguous (and the easternmost precinct basically isn't, the populated parts are separated from the rest of the seat by Marine Park.

It's a pretty fair map imo--the biggest issues probably are the unnecessarily complicated lines in Queens and the split of Harlem which I suspect probably would not be popular in the community.

I don’t think any of the maps will be “chosen” but I could see a map that takes a good deal of the features of Tories, but ye, the elimination of a majority Hispanic seat ain’t gonna fly.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hot take- Tories map will be chosen

All due respect to Torie, but gross.  There is no reason New York should have a Republican gerrymander like that as its congressional map.

Literally don't get it--only real thing on there that seems a bit underhanded partisanwise is giving Staten Island Coney Island and Brighton Beach, which are barely contiguous (and the easternmost precinct basically isn't, the populated parts are separated from the rest of the seat by Marine Park.

It's a pretty fair map imo--the biggest issues probably are the unnecessarily complicated lines in Queens and the split of Harlem which I suspect probably would not be popular in the community.

I don’t think any of the maps will be “chosen” but I could see a map that takes a good deal of the features of Tories, but ye, the elimination of a majority Hispanic seat ain’t gonna fly.

The current ny 7th is only 38% .

I’m talking about in the Bronx. In his map only 13 and 15 are majority Hispanic.

Also I feel like any Staten Island district is gonna come across underhanded especially if a new south Brooklyn seat is created because it’s just always gonna be a weird pairing

[ProgressiveModerate]

The other main flaw with Torie's map I see is partisan asymmetry (Which is kinda weird in NY state as a whole because of NYC, but amongst the swing seats).

Based on 538 PVI, most of the competitive or semi competitive seats lean slightly R when the state as a whole leans D. A good map should have a relatively equal number of competitive seats on both sides with a slight skew towards the majority party.

Again, this is pretty nit-picky of me and is only one factor out of many but just a thought.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mr. Dunn was made aware of the comments above, and understands them (a couple of them may even have perhaps some merit), and is confident, very confident, that the Special Master will draw a fair map. However, one comment that puzzles him (in particular the bit in bold), no matter how many times that he reads it:

"A good map should have a relatively equal number of competitive seats on both sides with a slight skew towards the majority party."

Basically the idea that the partisan center of mass should be around the states overall partisanship rather than an even PVI. As you get further away from a mass seats around a given partisanship become more sparse. I acknowledge NY is weird since you’re basically redistricying 2 different states (NY and Upstate) but this principle still stands. Think for instance how flawed it’d be if Cali treated even PVI as the center of gravity; either you’d have very few competitive D seats or many unnatural R seats.

Ultimately this is only one consideration and me being picky, but when you look at the comparative seats on your map, there are a lot of narrow R seats relative to lean D seats even though given NY’s overall partisanship one would expect slightly more lean D than R seats. Individually, p much everything is justifiable but overall one can make the case this is slightly unnatural.

Still though overall the map is good.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do y’all think the map released tmrw will be pretty simillar to the final map or will the final map be something completely different?

My guess is prolly, the exception being if they do a dramatic makeover of NYC and a bunch of minority groups gets upset, then they prolly back off a bit and return to something more simillar to the current map. Upstate especially, a lot of the complaints will have partisan undertones

[ProgressiveModerate]

As the clock winds down to the witching hour, it is interesting how so much turns on whether NY-03 crosses the Long Island sound into Westchester or not. The Pubs said no, don't go there, so the Pubs chopped NY-04 into Queens and then Brooklyn, driving one of the Dem lawyers into a white rage of anger. Another map, drawn by one Mr. Prieve, did a huge clockwise turn of the map so that via the Staten Island ferry, one goes from Staten Island to downtown Manhattan, making NY-11 forever non competitive, to effect the same objective. I strongly doubt either approach will be adopted. Finally, there is a  beautiful and elegant way, alluded to, albeit with the percentages wrong, in the Dunn submission, as to how to get NY-14's Hispanic percentage up, not just a little bit up, but up over 50% up, it turns out. I think I know, where this is all likely to go, but we shall see.

Mr. Dunn tells me that he had a grand time in Bath, and the pack really enjoyed the splendid countryside, and the discovery of an absolutely awesome new dog park in Oneonta. One nice lady in the park actually already knew about the concept of crack and pack, and wanted to know more. Imagine that?

My only rebuttal would be that you seem to be hyper focused on NY-03, NY-11, and what you call NY-14 on your map; even though there’s not a ton of partisan implications drawing good NYC seats matters a lot too. The rotation clockwise is a consequence of population shifts and if you’re creating a new South Brooklyn seat something has to be taken out of Brooklyn as well. Stuff like your NY-12 is quite flimsy from a COI standpoint imo.

There’s def no ideal nyc config cause there’s like too many communities to try and represent with too few districts. Imo my map does the best job at balancing all the seats and interest of minority groups well.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sorry you could not make it to Queens. That was an interesting experience.

Literally the worst timing cause of AP week and also my parents concerns. How was it?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Watch them be released at 11:59pm

[ProgressiveModerate]

That’s a moderate win for Dems though I don’t get why they did that to Buffalo.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also rip to the Orthodox seat.

Overall, stuff like Buffalo and NY-08 and 9 keep me asking why.

The map seems a tad sloppy around teh edges, but a reminder this is still an initial draft.

Also kinda surprises me NY-21 is only Trump + 11.

Seems like a large emphasis was placed on keeping cities/counties whole

[ProgressiveModerate]

Actually a lot of nyc is quite simillar to my map wonder if it had any influence.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone else find it weird how Biden did slightly better in this iteration of district 2 than 3?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Torie  you say Cervantes tried to avoid county chops but I think the goal was make a reasonable map with as many dem favorable decisions as reasonably possible.
Proof ?
Check out Albany County in the state senate map. He chops it despite it being 98.5% of a district and adds deep red Montgomery to unpack it  while making the Rensselaer district more D along with helping out the Saratoga district with Schnetenady

i have not reviewed the State Senate map. Do the Dems have a reasonably safe two thirds majority in the State Senate from his map? That is where the rubber meets the road. How many competitive seats did he draw? Did he make a claim as to that with the State Senate map? Is the SS map put up on the Court site?

Dems majority is relatively safe and supermajority generally seems lean D though srs could very well break it in 2022

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone else find it weird how Biden did slightly better in this iteration of district 2 than 3?

Do you have a link for the 2020#'s?   I'm seeing the 2016/2020 #'s in which was slightly better for Biden in 3 than 2.

Copy the map and load it on DRA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

That’s a moderate win for Dems though I don’t get why they did that to Buffalo.

Isn't splitting up the Buffalo metro good from a competitive seat POV?

No such seat in the area exists. The chop is minor and was done to make the map more compact overall, and keep chops to an absolute minimum. Cervas does not put as much emphasis as I do on avoiding tri-chopping counties.

I was talking more about how any CD centered firmly on the Buffalo metro alone would probably be Dem. By splitting the metro in two, you likely get two competitive districts.

This map still keeps 23 and 26 relatively safe for their respective parties but ig they could both be very vulnerable in a mega wave. Most of the suburbs left out of Buffalo are more conservative working class areas that voted p much 50-50 in 2020.