2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

Bear in mind that for Peters, the NYT is still including those almost-certainly wrong numbers in Antrim County.  This could swing things by a few thousand votes (though I hesitantly expect Peters to win here by the slimmest of margins). 

NYT reporting that Wayne still has 15% out. And Kalamazoo 20%.

Yeah the Michigan margins are only widening from here

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Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

Bear in mind that for Peters, the NYT is still including those almost-certainly wrong numbers in Antrim County.  This could swing things by a few thousand votes (though I hesitantly expect Peters to win here by the slimmest of margins). 

At least looking at the NYT map now, Antrim is back to showing zero votes. So Republicans can still get a net ~3,000 over the NYT numbers, but not the full 6,000.

It’s at zero votes for Pres, but for senate it still has Peters up 3k

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What about the Senate race?

Looks good. Peters up 9000 and I doubt James will be making up any ground

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In the last 1% reported in PA, Biden made up 0.4 points. Trump now leads by 5.3 with 84% in.

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John James looking like he's going down in MI pleases me no end. I don't hate all Republicans and I'm not black but I could never trust a man who doesn't have solidarity with his own people.

I hate John James too but you’ve said some... questionable stuff today

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Just thought this was interesting, me and my brother did a fantasy 2024 election a few months back. The map was the 306-232 map (with floating georgia), although that changed to 302-236 after redistricting. I thought it was unlikely for GA to vote left of FL (even in 2024), but it seems I underestimated #trends.

Interesting that we could see that exact map become a reality tonight

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If we assume the GA pres race will narrow down to within a couple tenths of a point, that would indicate Perdue missing 50 by a very small margin.

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https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1324139562252275712?s=21

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Perdue down to 50.3%.

I'm feeling confident that we'll at least get a runoff. Ideally Ossoff gets the nod but it might be better to have him and Warnock working together and really put a spotlight on two special election races.

I doubt many would split in the two runoffs. Both races are likely to go the same way

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DDHQ projecting Gary Peters re-elected

He remains an Unbeatable Titan

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Can anyone give me some info on Arizona? Is the Fox/AP call legit or are we not out of the woods yet?

They seem very confident about the call, but I wouldn't say it's a done deal by any means

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For those wondering about the NPV:

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1324152903364304896?s=21

Honestly I’m impressed Biden will (likely) still get over 80 million

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If that's the case then Biden should win Georgia

What are the chances that Ossoff is carried across the finish line?

If Biden wins Georgia then Perdue's seat is going to a runoff

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Trump's margin is down to 200,000.

PA is getting there.
Has anyone worked the numbers recently with the new data.
If we continue to see the same rate of closing-the-gap (assume), where will PA be?

Hopefully Trump continues to make a fool of himself so democrats remain energized when the runoffs roll around

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I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I think Pennsylvania will remain competitive for some time due to Philly and its huge suburbs.

And as much as I want Michigan to remain blue, I think it will be a tougher hold. Some good news though, Detroit's CSA makes up over half the state, so maybe suburbs can keep it in play.

As for Wisconsin, I am least optimistic about this state. There is no huge city to anchor it, so a lot of democrats' support has come from the driftless area. I don't see that continuing for much longer. Maybe WOW can balance it out, but we'll see

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ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

Lol Jesusland map takes the cake by far

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Ok Jesusland was nice but...

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So....how is GA and PA looking for Biden?

Awful and fairly decent

Yikes. You're gonna be on suicide watch by the end of the night

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Sorry for bringing this up again, but f**k Robert M. La Follette

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Whoops. Looks like I offended some people with my La Follette comment. I shall go read up on him now. Apologies

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Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

Very possible. Based off 2018, it seems like Trump has helped downballot significantly

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So is Biden favored to win Georgia at this point?

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So is Biden favored to win Georgia at this point?

If you ask everyone yes. But ... well you’ll see

Well, I kinda was asking everyone except you since I’ve heard your answer 400 times today

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While we're talking old maps, I think 1904 has an understated elegance to it. Bonus points for who the winner was.

Atlas blue Maryland makes it much nicer looking (Roosevelt won by 51 votes but 7/8 electors chose Parker)

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Not good at all, and the fact Atlas STILL hasn’t learned to not be an echo chamber is shocking.
After last night, I would expect at least a bit more caution.

The fact that Michigan was called for Biden I would think you a little more humble and aelf-aware, but apparently not.

The fact that Elliot county went for Trump by a greater margin might teach you a bit, but apparently not.

Lol y'all still on Kentucky? Move on