2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Hope For A New Era]

Just woke up, are we still heading toward 306-232?

[Hope For A New Era]

I feel like I've aged ten years in one night.

[Hope For A New Era]

fink nooooo

[Hope For A New Era]

fink nooooo

Huh?

IA-01

[Hope For A New Era]

Pottawatamie County Iowa is looking weird. It was 57R/36D in 2016, and now NYT is showing it as 57D/40R.

A D swing would have been expected there, but not that dramatic. Error?

[Hope For A New Era]

Minnesota caught be off guard last night.  Thought it would be much closer

Minnesota - titanium Likely D?

Yes it is!

Turnout is already high, so it's immune to turnout surges, and there are almost no persuadable voters. It's partisan hacks, both sides, all the way through.

[Hope For A New Era]

How is Georgia looking?

[Hope For A New Era]

Ok I woke up.
What happened?

Rust Belt saving Biden from the suddenly-Trumpist Latinos

Perdue has easily won.

He could drop below 50%.

[Hope For A New Era]

Agree with you on everything except GA.
There still is a path for Dems in GA, even if narrow.

I think this is the least-doomy post I've ever seen from you. I'm impressed

[Hope For A New Era]

Looking through the results in Virginia, and Biden is indeed the first democrat to win Virginia Beach since 1964 at the presidential level. The Margin is currently 53.0-45.4 (+7.6) according to the NYT page. Not unexpected, but still noteworthy I feel.

Realignment!

2024 needs to be going all-in on NC and GA.

[Hope For A New Era]

I have to wonder about the appearance of Biden momentum in Florida. Was it fake? Or was Biden on track to lose Florida by even more, and narrowed it at the last minute?

[Hope For A New Era]

The swings in WI are super fascinating. Atlas is going to a field day analyzing all the results once we get the complete results. Looks like Biden won because of a few factors:
1) D Turnout in Milwaukee County: Hillary won +162K, while Biden won it by +183K
2) D Turnout in Dane County: Hillary won +132K, while Biden won it by +181K
3) Decreased R margins in WOW: Hillary lost by -104K, while Biden lost them by -97K depite a huge turnout increase

Combined, these 3 areas gave Hillary a net margin of +180K, while Biden won them by +267K

In the rest of WI, Hillary lost by -203K, while Biden lost by -246k!

So anyway looks like Kenosha county WI swung 2 points to the right,

Kenosha BUMP?

lol.

Rural-Urban polarization increasing even further.

Becoming increasingly clear that it's not rural-urban, it's educated-uneducated.

[Hope For A New Era]

When was the last time there was Democratic President, Republican Senate and Democratic House?

Grover Cleveland's first term.

Seems R senate/D house is a rare combination.

[Hope For A New Era]

279, 290, or 306. That’s about where we are.

[Hope For A New Era]

Theory, and maybe some consolation for (likely) losing the Senate:

Just like we saw in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, a lot of the “Obama coalition” did not bother to turn out to the polls to vote for anyone but Obama. Generic Democrat suffered as a result. I think Trump really drives up turnout among WWC rurals, and they’ll vote for downballot Rs while they’re at it, but many don’t bother to show up for JUST John James or whoever the f—k as we saw in 2018. So maybe this gives us a shot if the GA senate seats both go to a run-off, and MAYBE even in 2022. We shall see.

I've been thinking along the same lines. It seems that when Trump is on the ballot, you should just ignore the polls.

[Hope For A New Era]

Missouri has Hawley up for re-election

That's Blunt, not Hawley. Hawley is 2024. Which is good, because Blunt is extremely weak.

Hoping for a Greitens primary challenge. Blunt and Greitens would vote basically the same way in the Senate (so not a risk), but Blunt is merely a weak candidate, while Greitens is Missouri's Kobach, literally baggage personified.

And then the D, ideally, would be one of Nixon, Kander, or Galloway. I don't think any others have the statewide profile and name-recognition needed, though of course that may be different two years from now.

[Hope For A New Era]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

Not if NY's got him locked up

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896

Biden +4.3 is not good to be clear, but it does indicate that states like Arizona and Georgia (and even North Carolina) are moving left faster than the nation at large. This would be good news for the 2024 nominee.

Yes, Georgia flipping in a Dem <5 environment is impressive for Biden.

Imagine if it had actually been Dem +10.

[Hope For A New Era]

Is Perdue under 50?

[Hope For A New Era]

I can't do anything. I'm sitting at the computer watching YouTube videos and checking this thread after each one. I have so much work to do, but I can't focus on anything else.

Come through, Georgia!

[Hope For A New Era]

Biden probably does better in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin and Michigan.

Every instinct everyone had about this election was wrong, wow.

Seems like whenever Trump is on the ballot, all bets are off.

I guess that's a good sign for 2022. Knock on wood.

Hearing a rumor that NV is holding off on releasing the vote count until later today because the GOP SOS didn't want to be responsible giving the 270 votes to Biden.

How did she hold on in 2018 when all other Nevada Republicans lost?

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324228834598801410

The Great Education Divide.

[Hope For A New Era]

Wait, so does this lower figure make PA look better or worse for Biden?

[Hope For A New Era]

Perdue down to 49.997

YES

[Hope For A New Era]

Trumpland
https://twitter.com/rooshv/status/1324183227951624194?s=20

^ this guy literally just unironically posted a Roosh V tweet