2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[RI]

MT called for Daines

[RI]

Ada County, ID flipped back to Trump.

[RI]

Regardless of how this turns out I am so done with this country after last night. For an open white supremacist to almost win re-election because Blacks and Latinos voted for him should show you that we really are the land of the stupid and the home of the uneducated.

Woah, please don't call hundreds of thousands of people of colour stupid for voting the way they want.

If someone votes against their own interests, then yes they are stupid.

Who are you to tell them what their interests are?

[RI]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Its racial depolarization but with caveats. There is still fluidity in the vote and CA urban centers didnt appear to move very much.

Los Angeles County appears to have swung toward Trump.

[RI]

While it probably won't hold, the GOP is currently leading in 218 House seats.

[RI]

What the hell happened in Antrim County, MI?! Went from +30 Trump in 2016 to +26 Biden this time with almost all votes counted. Insane swing.

It's an error.

[RI]

What's going on with Arizona?  I went to bed last night feeling pretty good because Fox/AP called it, then I wake up and see the lead has narrowed to 3%.  Wasn't really expecting the lead to narrow with the outstanding vote being what it is.

There was/is more vote left to be counted than the networks thought.

[RI]

Current swing map:

[RI]

I really hope James wins just so the GA runoffs don't have any impact on who controls the Senate.

[RI]

James back in front in MI

[RI]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

Absolutely he will, and he stands a good shot of winning the nomination.

I don't think he'd do nearly as well if he tried running again. Many Republicans are tired of Trump's antics and lack of strategy/effectiveness on domestic issues. Give the GOP base another candidate (perhaps Hawley) who can perfect what Trump started, and they'll gladly take it.

[RI]

It says it's only 58% reporting, so I expect this will change, but I am absolutely blown away at Biden's performance in Walla Walla County, WA. Even if he loses it within 10 points, that's a huge statement on college voters turning out en masse for Biden.

I think it was more the SDA population flipping on Trump than college voters.

[RI]

So does Gross actually still have a shot?

I think Gross would have to win about 2/3 of the VBM ballots to have a shot.

[RI]

Kalawao County, HI results:

Biden 23
Trump 1

The island of Niihau gave Trump 43 votes and none to anyone else.

[RI]

New votes in Philly, Biden wins batch of 13k by about 11k, at least 87k left in the county to count.

85% it is!

Congrats on the 10,000th reply to this thread.

[RI]

https://twitter.com/ShonaMurray_/status/1324377573304995843

ugh

[RI]

Please finish counting the votes in this century!

Is this place just a pro-Biden circlejerk or is there a legitimate chance of him winning all the remaining states?

He seems favored in all but NC and AK

I think AZ could still go R and maybe possibly NV (I'd like to see the next update before calling it). PA and GA seem to be heading Biden. NC and AK are almost assuredly going to Trump.

[RI]

Did Wisconsin really have 90% turnout, or is that something that is being misinterpreted by people trying to claim a conspiracy theory?

90% of WI registered voters cast a ballot, yes. Not 90% of the voting-eligible population.

[RI]

Does anyone seriously think Biden has a chance in AK? Why aren’t they calling it?

The vast vast vast majority of ballots are Vote by Mail. While its a pretty safe call to assume the vast majority of them will go to Trump, it's not something you can predict 100% of the time. So they wont call it yet.

About 150k mail ballots were cast, so it's actually a minority of AK ballots, not "the vast vast vast majority."

[RI]

https://twitter.com/jtlevy/status/1324409692899205120

You can apply this logic to Trump too, though.

[RI]

Cameron and La Salle Parishes in LA voted >90% R for the first time ever.

[RI]

Is Tipernani still ahead in AZ?

No

[RI]

Congratulations to President-Elect Biden. Our fates are in your hands now.

[RI]

NM's results are official, btw.

[RI]

Alaska's results are listed as official now.