KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[tmthforu94]

Former Republican, now Democrat, State Senator Barbara Bollier of Johnson County to run for Senate.

I'm really curious to see who the establishment Democrats line up behind between her and Grissom. I haven't researched her voting record, but am guessing there will be a couple problematic votes that'll come up from her time as a Republican that the base will have issues with.

[tmthforu94]

Pompeo seems more and more likely to run. I think he pretty much clears the field if he gets in, I have heard that both Marshall and Wagle will drop out if he enters but were pressuring his staff to make a decision sooner rather than later. I also suspect Pompeo would earn the coveted Trump endorsement, which effectively ends any chance Kobach has...I wouldn't be surprised if he withdraws as well and gives Pompeo a clear path.

[tmthforu94]

Who thinks Bollier will win her hometown of Mission Hills Kansas?
+22 Mccain, +40 romney +1 clinton but Sharice davids lost it by 10 I think even while winning the district by 9 more than Clinton.

Doubtful, I don't envision her getting much crossover support, she burned a lot of bridges when she left the GOP.

I'm sure someone on the GOP side is doing research on her voting record, I'm sure there will be some votes in there that the Democratic base won't like. Kansas Democrats are much more liberal than you'd expect from a Plains State.

Barbara Bollier will lose to anyone, including Kobach. Hoping GOP nominates someone reasonable though so this race doesn't become a "thing."

[tmthforu94]

Also, I think this was missed:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/474499-internal-gop-polling-shows-kobach-has-lead-in-kansas-senate-race-unless

Internal State GOP poll shows Kobach with 43% without Pompeo in the race (not good), but Pompeo would beat Kobach head-to-head 68-24. It is presumed Wagle would drop out and Marshall would jump back to his House race.

[tmthforu94]

Btw, reminder to everyone here that even with Sharice Davids winning by 10 points in 2018 and the 2nd district basically being tied House Rs still won the statewide vote by double digits. Safe R.

Right, this is a very good indicator. Watkins was/is a weak candidate as well so that drug down the numbers a bit.

[tmthforu94]

Marshall is the best shot to take down Kobach, hoping he can max out in the Big First and continue to improve in fundraising. He has my vote, as of now.

[tmthforu94]

If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

You are talking about a very small group of voters that would be extremely expensive due to the geographic challenges. Best focus for Democrats would be maximizing turnout in urban areas.

[tmthforu94]

Dole endorses Roger Marshall.

[tmthforu94]

New poll has Marshall (slightly) ahead. Lots of undecideds!

Marshall - 29%
Kobach - 28%
Wagle - 6%

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article239488068.html

[tmthforu94]

The title gets changed to Marshall leads slightly... because he leads by *1 point* in *1 poll* while still trailing substantially in the average...

Quit trying to make something out of nothing. It is the only recent polling we have, the only other was an internal KS GOP poll where we didn't get any info on and was before the Pompeo decision. It would have been "Kobach leads slightly" if he had been up a point. No bias here, I'll probably vote for Marshall but I'm by no means a big fan of his. Considering the last poll had Kobach up 2-1 on Marshall, I think it is a significant storyline that there is now a poll that shows it this close, hence the title change.

[tmthforu94]

For more context, here is the full poll:
http://dfmresearch.com/uploads/2020_Kansas_Rail_Survey__Amtrak_Topline.pdf

Poll definitely has a D-tilt but not too off. What is most significant to me is the fact that "Generic Republican" is running even with Trump's numbers, suggesting there aren't too many willing to do split ticket unless it is Kobach, which Bollier will need. I wish they had asked a primary question as well as polling Marshall-Bollier and the party affiliation composition.

My guess is the race is still where most pundits predict - Kobach leads by low single-digits, Marshall leads by high single-digits.

[tmthforu94]

https://twitter.com/bryanlowry3/status/1250533789731893248?s=21

[tmthforu94]

The KSGOP chair sent letters to Wagle and Lindstrom asking them to withdraw.

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1253404995946496003?s=20

[tmthforu94]

It might receive minor backlash, but I don’t think this will be a factor by the time August rolls around. The benefit of not having them on the ballot outweighs and negative effect this could have short-term.

[tmthforu94]

Kobach called on Marshall to condemn the GOP Chair’s actions, Marshall had a feisty response:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1253774218514386951?s=20

[tmthforu94]

Bob Hamilton's announcement video, for those interested. A Plumber, not a Politician. Could resonate well with KSGOP voters!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=50&v=AwQ_oclT610&feature=emb_logo

[tmthforu94]

Gary Johnson had the anti Hilary sentiment in 2016, that's why third parties didnt perform good in 2018. He will have little impact

He isn’t third party. He’s running in the GOP primary.

Bob Hamilton's announcement video, for those interested. A Plumber, not a Politician. Could resonate well with KSGOP voters!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=50&v=AwQ_oclT610&feature=emb_logo

Considering you're from KS, who do you think he will hurt the most ? Kobach ?

Kobach is better known in this area but i think his support is pretty locked in at 35-40%. I just don’t see how he gains much more. So I think Hamilton would take more from Marshall.

Also, Democrats - I would be cautious rooting too hard for Kobach. This is a presidential year for a federal election, I think it is very reasonable that Kobach still wins in November.

[tmthforu94]

Kobach called on Marshall to condemn the GOP Chair’s actions, Marshall had a feisty response:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1253774218514386951?s=20

I want Kobach to win the primary so he can lose again in the general, but man this is freaking awesome.

I'm not sure I want to take the risk nominating KKKobach and having this guy in the senate. Marshall is pretty bad as well, but not that insane. The polling is encouraging, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that at this point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/roger-marshall/

Being a senator is more than just a voting record. They’re one of our state and national leaders, responsible for constituent services, etc. That’s why I root for who I perceive as the best in each primary (D or R).

[tmthforu94]

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article242340181.html

Democratic presidential primary turnout has already more than tripled since 2016. Granted, I think this is mostly attributed to a primary vs. caucus, but could be a sign of good things to come for Democrats! August primary numbers also usually aren’t the best indicator since Republicans usually have far more contested races across the state.

[tmthforu94]

New poll:
https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1260601602496495618?s=20

I'm pretty certain this is an internal, but still good news for Marshall.

[tmthforu94]

For those interested, all 5 candidates will be having a debate on Saturday at 10 AM CT, hosted by the Kansas GOP. It'll be livestreamed - I plan on watching, and if I remember, I'll post a link in here when it starts!!

FWIW - my personal preference right now is Bob Hamilton, he has done good work for us before and is a great guy. I like outsiders and am not particularly a fan of Marshall - he is way too obsessed with sucking up to Trump. Also really like Lindstrom, but I think Hamilton has a better shot at becoming viable. It'll be interested to see how Hamilton performs on Saturday. He has the funds to make this more competitive, but needs to gain some credibility within the party's grassroots to have a shot. If he isn't polling close by Election Day, though, I'll vote for Marshall to stop Kobach.

[tmthforu94]

Link to debate: https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=195421514855059&ref=watch_permalink

The audio is currently TERRIBLE!! Hopefully it gets fixed soon.

EDIT: they're taking a break to fix the audio

[tmthforu94]

5/23 Debate Rankings
1. Kris Kobach - thanks to being a career politician, he is a great debater. He attacked Marshall relentlessly and was barely mentioned - he received a few subtle jabs about losing in 2018, but that was it. Gave his conservative credentials and all of his skeletons weren't mentioned to speak of.
2. Susan Wagle - gave clear, concise answers and successfully tied her time in the Kansas Senate to how she'd do in the U.S. Senate.
3. Dave Lindstrom - Showed himself to be an outsider with the competence to serve. Had a strong closing statement calling out the weaknesses of the Top 3.
4. Roger Marshall - Gave pretty good answers but was on the defensive for most of the debate, rarely went on the offensive against Kobach. Seemed a bit nervous. Was attacked for allegedly trying to get off the Ag Committee for Ways & Means as well as not being a Trump ally on trade.
5. Bob Hamilton - as I said yesterday, I was really pulling for him, but he gave bumbling answers throughout and proved he isn't ready for primetime. When asked how he planned to get onto the Senate Ag Committee, he said: "You just gotta show me how to do that...how do you begin."

[tmthforu94]

I watched bits of it & was surprised how heavily agriculture featured even for a state like Kansas- I did love how everyone brings out their family farm story.

The topic of the debate was focused specifically on agriculture/rural issues. Usually the emphasis isn't quite as heavy! You're right though, almost every Kansan (myself included) can share several personal agricultural/farming stories at the drop of a hat.

I will say, and I brought up in commentary during the debate, that I was mightily disappointed how coronavirus wasn't mentioned at all during the debate, no questions on it or anything. It has had an effect on every part of our life, especially in rural hospitals.

[tmthforu94]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/kansas/articles/2020-05-26/marshall-fights-to-be-doc-on-ballot-for-kansas-senate-race

Marshall requested to be listed as "Roger 'Doc' Marshall" on the ballot. The request by the Secretary of State's office (also a Republican) and will now be decided by the state board.

Per Kansas law, he can't be listed as "Doctor Roger Marshall" - titles aren't allowed, professional or otherwise, as they can give candidates unfair advantage. Hence why he is trying to add it via the nickname route, which is allowed.