KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Pollsters like Sabato and JHK forecast understating Bullock, Harrison and Bollier's chance, just because Dems will net over 50 seats got a pleasant surprise coming in Nov. Those three are outaising their R opponents

You overestimate Bullock, Harrison, Cunningham and Bollier's chances. They are all running in red states and the only one who might win is Bullock. Remember Bredesen, Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill were all leading in the polls at some point and went on to lose.

One of these is not like the other

[tmthforu94]

New poll:
https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1260601602496495618?s=20

I'm pretty certain this is an internal, but still good news for Marshall.

[Pollster]

New poll:
https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1260601602496495618?s=20

I'm pretty certain this is an internal, but still good news for Marshall.

Yes, Public Opinion Strategies is a Republican polling firm that Marshall has hired.

I have doubts that Kobach is in the 20's, though wouldn't be surprised if Marshall were in the lead right now. Hamilton does appear to be growing, interesting to see if that holds.

[Oryxslayer]

New poll:
https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1260601602496495618?s=20

I'm pretty certain this is an internal, but still good news for Marshall.

It's also interesting 1/4 voters are undecided. Maybe because if they were pushed harder the numbers are less rosy.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Marshall will win the primary and general election. Republicans aren't stupid enough to nominate Kobach.

[Greedo punched first]

It's an internal for Marshall.

[Xing]

Not terrific for Marshall that he's only up 7 in his own internal (with plenty of undecideds), but I still have a hard time seeing Republicans nominating Kobach again.

[brucejoel99]

I think Marshall will win the primary and general election. Republicans aren't stupid enough to nominate Kobach.

August 7, 2018.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans aren't stupid enough to

...Yes. Yes, they are.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Marshall will win the primary and general election. Republicans aren't stupid enough to nominate Kobach.

August 7, 2018.

That was before he lost to Laura Kelly. This time, now that Republicans know he can lose a statewide race, they'll be a lot more wary of nominating him.

[RogueBeaver]

McConnell and some WH people still want Pompeo, who still isn't interested.

[SnowLabrador]

McConnell and some WH people still want Pompeo, who still isn't interested.

I don't think he's going to run. Then again, we all said the same about Steve Bullock.

[here2view]

I think Marshall wins the nomination and then beats Bollier by high single digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Marshall wins the nomination and then beats Bollier by high single digits.

Laura Kelly has a 60 % approval fat chance

[SnowLabrador]

I think Marshall wins the nomination and then beats Bollier by high single digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Marshall wins the nomination and then beats Bollier by high single digits.

Yeah okay, that's why McConnell is trying to recruit Pompeo if Marshall stood a better chance. Bollier has out raised both Marshall and Kobach

[Pollster]

It's strange that party leadership is so persistent on getting Pompeo even though, in theory, they should be satisfied with Marshall. They cited his fundraising in the Politico piece, yet it seems like a given that big Republican donors would open their wallets to any non-Kobach who wins the nomination. I can't think of a single reason they'd have for not getting behind him after Pompeo's multiple definitive no's, unless they are aware of some private weakness or skeleton.

[2016]

I think Marshall wins the nomination and then beats Bollier by high single digits.

Yeah okay, that's why McConnell is trying to recruit Pompeo if Marshall stood a better chance. Bollier has out raised both Marshall and Kobach

Have you never learned anything from 2014. Roberts was at times behind Orman, yet he comfortable won the Race. Bollier is a goner if Marshall wins the Primary. You prolly Dem can cross KS off the Board.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Marshall wins the nomination and then beats Bollier by high single digits.

Yeah okay, that's why McConnell is trying to recruit Pompeo if Marshall stood a better chance. Bollier has out raised both Marshall and Kobach

Have you never learned anything from 2014. Roberts was at times behind Orman, yet he comfortable won the Race. Bollier is a goner if Marshall wins the Primary. You prolly Dem can cross KS off the Board.

Have you seen the Iowa poll Ernst is losing, everything isnt about 2016

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Usha Reddi, Mayor of Manhattan, has withdrawn from the Democratic primary, leaving Bollier and Robert Tillman.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I havent seen any poll from ME; whereas, Dems are doing better in KS, AZ, CO, GA, MT than ME, Collins and Murkowski will vote for Biden nominees anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS is trending more D than IA, they have Laura Kelly and Dem mayor, in coronavirus partisan politics in MT, KS, AZ, NH, VT are left at door and out party can still win; MT, AZ, KS Ds for Gov and Sen and for VT and NH R win for Gov

[Pollster]

It's strange that party leadership is so persistent on getting Pompeo even though, in theory, they should be satisfied with Marshall. They cited his fundraising in the Politico piece, yet it seems like a given that big Republican donors would open their wallets to any non-Kobach who wins the nomination. I can't think of a single reason they'd have for not getting behind him after Pompeo's multiple definitive no's, unless they are aware of some private weakness or skeleton.

I could be wrong, but my best guess is that Republican private polling isn’t looking all that good here, including their numbers for a Marshall vs. Bollier match-up (Marshall’s probably ahead, but it’s much closer than they would like, and he’s not outperforming Kobach by as much as most people here believe).

I'd agree. Also possible that Marshall is probably not exactly beloved by the GOP base, considering his political career started by ousting an incumbent from the center.

[tmthforu94]

For those interested, all 5 candidates will be having a debate on Saturday at 10 AM CT, hosted by the Kansas GOP. It'll be livestreamed - I plan on watching, and if I remember, I'll post a link in here when it starts!!

FWIW - my personal preference right now is Bob Hamilton, he has done good work for us before and is a great guy. I like outsiders and am not particularly a fan of Marshall - he is way too obsessed with sucking up to Trump. Also really like Lindstrom, but I think Hamilton has a better shot at becoming viable. It'll be interested to see how Hamilton performs on Saturday. He has the funds to make this more competitive, but needs to gain some credibility within the party's grassroots to have a shot. If he isn't polling close by Election Day, though, I'll vote for Marshall to stop Kobach.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Hamilton "scammed" my very conservative Grandma over a toilet flap. She has informed she will NOT be voting for him.