Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[tmthforu94]

https://twitter.com/pmiller1693/status/1029378853309952003

They don’t because canvassing doesn’t end until the 20th. It shouldn’t change by too much, though.

[tmthforu94]

Tmth, why is it so favorable to Kobach?
I thought absentees were going to favor Colyer...


When was the last time an incumbent governor got defeated in the primaries?

I thought absentees would be pretty even but thought provisionals were going to be more beneficial to Colyer than they have been. Three of the biggest counties - Douglas, Shawnee and Johnson all voted for Colyer by decent margins so he should make up some ground. Probably needs to pull within 100 to have a shot for litigation to tip the scales. That would be a hot mess.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/a-failure-to-launch-kansas-republican-gubernatorial-contest-and-the-history-of-incumbent-governor-primary-performance/

Ross Sterling in Texas, 1932. Though there is a bit of an asterisk in Kansas since Colyer just became governor in January.

EDIT: I was looking at closest margin, which was Sterling. Most recent according to Sabato was 1978.

[tmthforu94]

At least there is not a Senate seat up this year.

Roberts retires in 2020. Kobach could take that Senate seat.

Or Colyer, if he loses finally?

I think Colyer is done if he loses this. 2020 Senate race will likely be a battle between Yoder (if he wins this year) and Marshall.

[tmthforu94]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1029462073602965506

This needs to happen - it is a guaranteed lawsuit if our two largest counties (by far) use different methods.


Regarding 2020: I have said since the beginning that it would have made more sense for Kobach to run for Senate in 2020, I think it would be much more fitting for him. Kobach is going to get dragged through the mud until November, so if he loses this year, I have a hard time seeing him running in 2020.

Steve Watkins won his primary mostly because of his father's money, plain and simple. A lot of people in KS GOP and party activists do not like him and his questionable record as a past Democrat, his big focus on 2020 will likely be fending off a strong primary challenge. I don't think he'd get very far in a statewide race, at least not now.

Marshall is probably the favorite to run and win in 2020.

[tmthforu94]

https://twitter.com/bryanlowry3/status/1029469642790785026?s=21

[tmthforu94]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1029462073602965506

This needs to happen - it is a guaranteed lawsuit if our two largest counties (by far) use different methods.


Regarding 2020: I have said since the beginning that it would have made more sense for Kobach to run for Senate in 2020, I think it would be much more fitting for him. Kobach is going to get dragged through the mud until November, so if he loses this year, I have a hard time seeing him running in 2020.

Steve Watkins won his primary mostly because of his father's money, plain and simple. A lot of people in KS GOP and party activists do not like him and his questionable record as a past Democrat, his big focus on 2020 will likely be fending off a strong primary challenge. I don't think he'd get very far in a statewide race, at least not now.

Marshall is probably the favorite to run and win in 2020.

Thanks for your previous answers,
Between Watkins and the dem candidate, who is going to win according to you?

Paul Davis, who ran for Governor and nearly won in 2014, is the Democrat. I think if Republican establishment and activists rally around Watkins, he will pull it off. Davis is a strong candidate but this is a Trump district and they're already tying Davis to his liberal voting record in the Kansas House. He was able to run as a moderate in 2014 - he'll have a much more difficult time doing that while running for federal office. I think the 3rd is more likely to flip than the 2nd.

[tmthforu94]

BREAKING NEWS

Unofficial provisional numbers from JoCo:
Colyer: 300
Kobach: 325

Tmth Projection: Kris Kobach is the GOP nominee for Kansas Governor.

[tmthforu94]

Colyer is having a press conference at 7:30. We'll see what he says, I have a feeling it will be a concession.

[tmthforu94]

As expected, Colyer concedes.

https://twitter.com/arothfield/status/1029526313495871488?s=21

[tmthforu94]

I'm very disappointed that Colyer has conceded but I think it was the right decision. Even with a recount and court challenges, overcoming this deficit would be highly unlikely. It is time for KS GOP to unite and focus on winning in November.

[tmthforu94]

I have a feeling that if the situations were reversed, Kobach would not be as quick to concede.

Agreed. Classy move by Colyer, he's a great guy.

Why is Orman still running again?

He's going to start flooding the airwaves for the next few weeks, if he can pull his numbers up a little bit before Labor Day, he could have a serious shot at winning.

[tmthforu94]

Nice article on Colyer by the Topeka Capital Journal

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180818/how-did-jeff-colyer-nearly-beat-kris-kobach-despite-long-odds

[tmthforu94]

This is a frivolous lawsuit meant to undermine Orman and create a distraction. Hopefully it is resolved soon.

[tmthforu94]

House GOP leader urges moderate Republicans to either endorse Kobach or sit out the election.

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/state-region/2018/aug/25/kansas-moderates-dilemma-stay-mum-on-kobach-or-endorse-a-competitor/

[tmthforu94]

http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Colyers-campaign-chairman-now-backing-Orman-491799071.html

Colyer's campaign chairman endorsed Orman today. Interesting.

Good. Let the clowns split the Republican vote instead of the Democratic vote.

Fantastic news. Mr. Colyer, please do likewise.

Colyer has already endorsed Kobach.

[tmthforu94]

Former Republican Kansas Governor Bill Graves (1995-2003) endorses Laura Kelly (D) for Governor. He definitely is closer to the center but still respected by many conservatives. He is close with the Romney family, fwiw.

https://www.wibwnewsnow.com/former-republican-governor-bill-graves-endorses-laura-kelly-for-governor-of-kansas/

[tmthforu94]

This was previously a safe Republican district, not sure what will happen now - it may be too late for him to be replaced on the ballot but he could get elected and then precinct members select a replacement. The Democrat running is Deann Mitchell, she ran for Olathe city council last year and won a surprisingly strong race, only losing by a few points.

[tmthforu94]

Kobach in big BIG trouble

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He's still leading in the polls and none of this was surprise - it was always a given that a good chunk of moderate Republicans would support Kelly, that is why this race is close. Davis touted over 100 Republican endorsements in 2014 and still lost.

[tmthforu94]

The race has honestly been pretty quiet thus far. Kelly has gotten some nice Republican endorsements, but otherwise I don't think the dynamics have changed much since the primary. I don't think I've seen a single ad on the election in a couple weeks, only for the House seats. I'm sure it'll start heating up in a couple weeks.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180925/online-poll-of-kansas-governors-race-puts-laura-kelly-slightly-ahead-of-kris-kobach

Online poll has Kelly leading by 2.

[tmthforu94]

I would say that this poll across the state would probably lead to Kobach up by a few points, though it is an internal so make of that what you will. Kelly will almost certainly win the 3rd since Davis won it in 2014, I expect the margin to increase quite substantially here for Democrats as Trump's unpopularity in suburbs will bring Kobach/Yoder down.

[tmthforu94]

Breaking News

Greg Orman (I) will be dropping out of the Governor's race. It is unknown if he will endorse today but he will likely be endorsing Kelly at some point between now and Election Day. Polling suggests that his voters were split between the other two, but I would suspect this will benefit Kelly tremendously. She just became the favorite in this race.

I don't have proof yet, so you will just have to trust me and my sources for now. Announcement should come today.

[tmthforu94]

Praise Jesus. Guarantee you the experts will still keep this as tossup anyhow

Because it is still a toss-up. I'd just give Kelly the edge now instead of Kobach.

[tmthforu94]

https://twitter.com/pmiller1693/status/1048316396231380994

[tmthforu94]

Do not doubt me, you should feel honored that you were one of the first to know! Very ungrateful, sad!!