I voted for "stays relatively the same" but I'm also a bit unsure. 2020 compared to 2016 looks bad for the Republicans' chances but 2020 was actually the closest MN voted to the NPV since 1960 except for 2000 and 2016, both of which had more third party influence. Rural areas are far from maxed out, as is also the case in WI, IL, IA, and MI. The upper-Midwest rural trends might just be lagging behind lower-Midwest (MO, IN, OH) rural trends. The only issue is the Twin City suburbs and Rochester, though Trump's vote share barely even went down in those areas so that trend may be mostly from 2016 3rd party votes. It's now hard to imagine MN turning red but the Republicans can probably keep the state purple by improving in rural areas and perhaps the cities.
I'll have to dig a bit in my post history, but I've found that (with some exceptions in the early 2000s) increased 3rd party support usually hurts Democratic support more than Republicans.
That's kind of what I said. Third parties made MN closer in 2000 and 2016 and many of those 3rd-party voters in MN (and NH/ME/CO) likely went to Kerry/Biden. (I would also assume that Norm Coleman
actually loses in 2008 without Barkley but maybe not.) Even still, Trump did worse than Romney in the Twin Cities area and Rochester and so there is a trend aside from 3rd parties, but the trend may be slower than the 2016 to 2020 swing would suggest. Time will tell.
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