What way do you think Minnesota will trend in election cycles in the near future?

[GregTheGreat657]

What way do you think Minnesota will trend in election cycles in the near future?

[Jamison5]

I voted for "stays relatively the same" but I'm also a bit unsure. 2020 compared to 2016 looks bad for the Republicans' chances but 2020 was actually the closest MN voted to the NPV since 1960 except for 2000 and 2016, both of which had more third party influence. Rural areas are far from maxed out, as is also the case in WI, IL, IA, and MI. The upper-Midwest rural trends might just be lagging behind lower-Midwest (MO, IN, OH) rural trends. The only issue is the Twin City suburbs and Rochester, though Trump's vote share barely even went down in those areas so that trend may be mostly from 2016 3rd party votes. It's now hard to imagine MN turning red but the Republicans can probably keep the state purple by improving in rural areas and perhaps the cities.

[Minnesota Mike]

Unless Republicans can stop the leftward swing of the Twin Cities metro it does not matter what happens in the rural areas the state will continue to trend left. There simply are not enough rural voters to outweigh the metro vote and the metro continues to grow while rural areas continue to shrink. I know this has been posted before but Biden won Hennepin county by more raw votes than the 74 counties Trump won combined.   

[Biden his time]

Minnesota is essentially Georgia

Even if the Democrats lose everything they got in the rural areas, they can do decently in the Minneapolis metro and win statewide no matter what

Mathematics and Republicans are not on the same side in Minnesota.

[Schiff for Senate]

Leftward for the same reasons above stated.

[S019]

Rightward, but very, very slowly, Red Minnesota probably doesn't happen until the 2030s or so.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I voted for "stays relatively the same" but I'm also a bit unsure. 2020 compared to 2016 looks bad for the Republicans' chances but 2020 was actually the closest MN voted to the NPV since 1960 except for 2000 and 2016, both of which had more third party influence. Rural areas are far from maxed out, as is also the case in WI, IL, IA, and MI. The upper-Midwest rural trends might just be lagging behind lower-Midwest (MO, IN, OH) rural trends. The only issue is the Twin City suburbs and Rochester, though Trump's vote share barely even went down in those areas so that trend may be mostly from 2016 3rd party votes. It's now hard to imagine MN turning red but the Republicans can probably keep the state purple by improving in rural areas and perhaps the cities.

I'll have to dig a bit in my post history, but I've found that (with some exceptions in the early 2000s) increased 3rd party support usually hurts Democratic support more than Republicans.

[Jamison5]

I voted for "stays relatively the same" but I'm also a bit unsure. 2020 compared to 2016 looks bad for the Republicans' chances but 2020 was actually the closest MN voted to the NPV since 1960 except for 2000 and 2016, both of which had more third party influence. Rural areas are far from maxed out, as is also the case in WI, IL, IA, and MI. The upper-Midwest rural trends might just be lagging behind lower-Midwest (MO, IN, OH) rural trends. The only issue is the Twin City suburbs and Rochester, though Trump's vote share barely even went down in those areas so that trend may be mostly from 2016 3rd party votes. It's now hard to imagine MN turning red but the Republicans can probably keep the state purple by improving in rural areas and perhaps the cities.

I'll have to dig a bit in my post history, but I've found that (with some exceptions in the early 2000s) increased 3rd party support usually hurts Democratic support more than Republicans.

That's kind of what I said. Third parties made MN closer in 2000 and 2016 and many of those 3rd-party voters in MN (and NH/ME/CO) likely went to Kerry/Biden. (I would also assume that Norm Coleman actually loses in 2008 without Barkley but maybe not.) Even still, Trump did worse than Romney in the Twin Cities area and Rochester and so there is a trend aside from 3rd parties, but the trend may be slower than the 2016 to 2020 swing would suggest. Time will tell.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It will probably remain the same as rural areas grow more Republican but are offset by suburban and urban areas becoming more Democratic. The Minnesota GOP being such a dumpster fire certainly doesn't help either.

[Chips]

I still think it will stay at least somewhat competitive for a while. I don't expect MN to become safe unless it's an incredibly good year for the DEM.