Kanye Ballot Access: Yeezus or Bust?

[W]

Subthread of Minor Party and Independent General Election Discussion

NOTE: These maps are not actively updated.

Hey y'all,

I figure now that we know Kanye does have operatives at least attempting to get Kanye West ballot access, I will in this thread assume Kanye West is still serious and address the chances he can get on the ballot in more states and further how that could influence on the race, in my humble opinion at Trump's detriment. I'll use maps to explain my thoughts on this process.

I also wish to acknowledge for the many people who will read this and roll their eyes my interest in this is almost that of a case study. There is no precedent for a race like this, as there was no precedent for 20 candidates in a single primary or 2 self-funding billionaires running. The outcome of this campaign will be very enlightening as to what happens when a celebrity runs.

KANYE WEST BALLOT ACCESS:

Ballot access established - 7 EV
Write-in access - 0 EV
Ballot access TBD (uncolored states) - 405 EV
No ballot access unless suing for it - 126 EV

Note: West is currently petitioning online and in person for SC signatures.

Here is Kanye West's current ballot access, as we know it at 6 AM EST on 7/16. We must first ask: why Oklahoma? Seems like an odd state. The answer is that in Oklahoma you can get on the ballot by just paying a $35,000 fee. Evidently that happened. Although there's been some reporting on Kanye hiring people to get him signatures to petition for ballot access, clearly it was simply too close to the deadline to be effective. I will assume these operations continue however for the sake of my analysis. First I think it's important to explain the methodology each state left uses to calculate eligibility for the ballot in remaining states.

BALLOT ACCESS METHODS:

Filing fee - 17 EV
Signature Requirement - 395 EV
Ballot access deadline passed (uncolored states) - 126 EV

As you can see signature requirements are most common, with only Lousiana and Colorado not having them. As Colorado's filing fee is $1,000 and Louisiana's is $500, at this point we can safely assume Kanye West will attain ballot access in those two states and my specific discussion of them ends here. Further now, let us look at the deadlines in the remaining states.

BALLOT DEADLINES:

September ballot access deadline - 25 EV
August ballot access deadline - 278 EV
July ballot access deadline - 109 EV
Ballot access deadline passed (uncolored states) - 126 EV

As you can see, most deadlines left are at least two weeks away during August, making Kanye's prospects larger than you'd expect. That being said there's a second factor besides time to consider, how reasonable the signature requirement is. As not all states have voter registration statistics available, this next part will be a function of the total population of said state.

PERCENTAGE OF STATE REQUIRED TO SIGN:

Under 0.05% of state
Under 0.25% of state
Over 0.25% of state
Ballot access deadline passed or ballot fee (uncolored states)

These state limits are very variant, from Tennesse's 275 signature limit at 0.004% of the state population to Wyoming's requirement of 4,018 signatures at 0.7086% of the population.

Now from all of these, I will now characterize my expectation for Kanye West's ballot access. Unlike all the other maps in this thread, this one is purely an estimation and may be proven wildly inaccurate. So take this with a tremendous grain of salt.

W'S ESTIMATE FOR BALLOT ACCESS

Likely ballot access - 79 EV
Plausible ballot access - 173 EV
Unlikely ballot access - 286 EV

[W]

He's not eligible in Colorado because in addition to the filing fee there's a deadline to file with the FEC that he did not meet.

You're correct that there was a qualifying by petition deadine on 7/9 however when qualifying by fee the deadline is 8/5. Although West needs to fill out a statement of candidacy which he of course is yet to do. Is there another deadline requirement I missed?

[W]

He's not eligible in Colorado because in addition to the filing fee there's a deadline to file with the FEC that he did not meet.

You're correct that there was a qualifying by petition deadine on 7/9 however when qualifying by fee the deadline is 8/5. Although West needs to fill out a statement of candidacy which he of course is yet to do. Is there another deadline requirement I missed?

One source I saw said there was an FEC filing deadline of 7/10.

Hmm. I haven't seen anything like that but it wouldn't shock me if it exists, given how many hitches there are to ballot access law. For now I'm just gonna keep the map the same.

[W]

Kanye will take more votes from Trump than Biden, especially looking at the middle America states he stands a chance in. 100% confident in that assertion.

[W]

https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/1284334571752837120

West petitioning fans to get on the ballot in SC

Deadline was 7/18 so I'm at a bit of a loss for this one.

Who wants to bet 80% of signatures are invalid?

(Also for the record I'm signing it to see if he has a mailing list. In which case I am going to go nuts.)

[W]

What the hell have I done?

I was under the impression online signatures weren't valid unless the state in question changed it's rules.

I know Massachusetts passed a law to allow online signatures, but I can't find anything about South Carolina doing that.

I was under that impression too. That being said SC's deadline has already passed and I'm sure more info than this form has would be required to sign otherwise. Perhaps its a petition to waive the deadline? I don't know. All I know is West seems to have at least somewhat competent staff hired so I cannot imagine they'd do this for no reason.

[W]

https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/1284599234088427520

He apparently has physical places setup for people to sign aboard. I cannot think of why except just to pressure state officials? Seems a bit crazy to me.

[W]

What the hell have I done?

I was under the impression online signatures weren't valid unless the state in question changed it's rules.

I know Massachusetts passed a law to allow online signatures, but I can't find anything about South Carolina doing that.

I was under that impression too. That being said SC's deadline has already passed and I'm sure more info than this form has would be required to sign otherwise. Perhaps its a petition to waive the deadline? I don't know. All I know is West seems to have at least somewhat competent staff hired so I cannot imagine they'd do this for no reason.

Deadline was extended to July 20

Oh wow! Excellent catch! Updated everything to acknowledge that.

[W]

Kanye will take more votes from Trump than Biden, especially looking at the middle America states he stands a chance in. 100% confident in that assertion.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Old white WWC’s aren’t exactly the kind of people who will vote for Kanye. Young people, minorities and people disillusioned with the binary choice are.

I don't know what to say besides I disagree with every word you just said. Not all of Trump's "coalition" is WWC old people and to be quite blunt it is my firm belief not all young people minorities and politically disillusioned people are stupid. Anyone who was voting for Biden out of genuine support is still gonna do that. Anyone voting for Biden because he's the not a fascist candidate with the best chance are still gonna do that. The only people who will genuinely vote for Kanye West are frat bro MAGA types whose political beliefs end at "haha blindly follow lib owning man" and the jokesters who are preparing their "I only supported trump IRONICALLY" defence. I could maybe see a case for some non-voters turning out for him solely as a joke or because he's a celebrity but the idea whiny progressives or generally disillusioned people are gonna vote for some weird black nationalist paleoconservative instead of staying home or picking some third party sacrificial lamb is genuinely insane. And I haven't even touched the fact West really only stands a chance to get on the ballot in some of the reddest states in the country. West running is absolutely beyond a doubt a net-positive for Joe Biden. Unequivocably. Now when West most likely runs in the Republican primary in 2024 then yes I will be concerned, but for now all this sideshow does is cut into Trump which is absolutely in the country's material interest rn.

[W]

It is my guess that West probably received above the threshold for signatures, but that so many of these will be thrown out that there is no way to know if he actually did it or not. My gut says no but 20 million Twitter followers may buy some things outside expectation.

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Gonna have to tinker with my maps considerably. West did not get on the ballot in SC, some states (IL) have changed signature requirements. I'll update these ASAP.

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West has submitted signatures and a petition in Missouri.

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I think this market is basically free money: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6838/Will-Kanye-West-qualify-for-the-presidential-ballot-in-Ohio

Running off of this, buy "No" this morning because there will be a yes spike (potentially over 50%) due to filing in Missouri. 5k signatures in 9 days is just not gonna happen.

[W]

Illinois, Oklahoma, Missouri... has Kanye actually tried to get on any swing state ballots?

Seems not. Some are wagering it's intentional to avoid spoiler accusations but I'm not sure.. he also missed NJ. The only requirement he could've realistically made for a swing state is Maine which of course is not exactly the purplest state in the Union. I honestly think it's somewhat arbitrary, somewhat purely cost vs reward based, and that we'll see sporadic ballot filings through September.

[W]

West has submitted signatures and a petition in Missouri.

Missouri requires that petition gatherers be residents of the state, unless I'm misunderstanding its petition forms. So presumably all signatures gathered by those shady people that he hired in Illinois, who supposedly were going to be gathering signatures in Missouri, will have to be thrown out.

I'm not sure honestly. Of course if that's what they're doing as has been openly reported they will be but I don't think this operation is that dumb. These signature gatherers all seem to be paid local operatives with experience in this field so I just cannot imagine it's the same people going state to state.

[W]

Amazing how in 2012 Gary Johnson couldn't even manage ballot access in Oklahoma and now they may have the likes of Kanye West officially on their ballot just days after he announced.

I've been wondering about that. Oklahoma notoriously has some of the strictest ballot access laws. There didn't even have a third presidential option in 2004, 2008, and 2012. But then Kanye with absolutely not prep time manages to get on the ballot there and nowhere else. What the hell happened?

I'm not gonna pretend to know if the $35,000 fee has always been a thing there (my understanding is it hasn't) but it just didn't make sense for third parties with low fundraising until Johnson 2016 and even then Stein didn't pay it. For rich boys who can blow that no second thoughts, however, it's no big deal. The other indie candidates are also exorbitantly wealthy.

[W]

West has 1327/800 signatures in NJ but who knows how many will be thrown out. Interesting to note he didn't file as a Birthday/BDY party candidate or an Independent here, but rather under a name that rolls of the tongue well: "SLOGAN PENDING".

To put that in perspective, the unapologetically Marxist-Leninist Party for Socialism and Liberation attained 1589 signatures. The completely unheard of Unity Party has 1100 signatures.

No word yet on if Missouri approved West's petition and no word yet on if Illinois is gonna rule the challenge to West's signatures as valid.

Right now I'd say we can reasonably assert West probably will be on the NJ ballot come November.