No, he lost because populous counties like Polk, Pasco, Hernando, Volusia, Manatee and Sarasota all swung hard against him. His failure to recognize the threat that Scott posed and bury him early is what sunk him more than a poorly-designed ballot.
It was obviously a winnable race for Nelson regardless of the Broward County screw up, but I’m asking in the reality we got, would Broward County’s problem have made the difference.
Honestly FL-2018 still pains me as a Dem. If Nelson had taken the race seriously from the start and we nominated Gwen Graham, we could be looking at a very different picture of FL right now. I feel like 2018 set in motion a self-fulfilling prophecy of Florida being R-leaning; was deprioritized a bit in 2020 and the Republican government attracted R-leaning covid transplants, then in 2022 we got gerrymanders maps which meant Dems spent next to nothing in 2022 on Gov or Congressional races there. Heading into 2024, Nelson likely would’ve retired but I have a feeling Dems would take the open seat much more seriously than the current situation. Today Democrats don’t try in Florida anymore and we have an insane gap to close if we ever want to make FL competitive again.
I think FL-2018 is also what started the rightwards shifts with Cubans. Both Nelson and Gillum had absolutely terrible outreach; Nelson didn’t even hire a Hispanic outreach person till like 6 weeks before the election. Republicans ultimately dominated messaging, specifically to Cuban voters, and they reaped the benefits of that.
It was Dems version of NH 2016.
Poll
