Would Nelson have won in 2018 without the Broward County screwup?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not really sure where to put this thread so moderators feel free to move.

For context, Nelson lost the 2018 Florida Senate race by just 10033 votes to Rick Scott. In Broward County there was a notable undercount with 26079 (3.7%) fewer votes being cast for FL-Sen than FL-Gov. Everywhere else in the state, this difference was negligible with a 0.1% undercount in most counties. Broward County voted 69 - 31 for Nelson, and is arguably Dems most important vote net in the state. Some attribute this undercount to poor ballot design, others to machines failing to tabulate votes, or a combination of both. I think the poor ballot design is the more likely explanation given this issue was pretty consistent countywide and not specific to individual precincts.

If you run the numbers where you assume had this not been the case and Broward County cast an equal number of votes for FL-Gov and FL-Sen, and those votes break the same way as the votes actually cast for Senate, it narrows Scott's win to just 449 votes which is insanely close. However, Broward County casting the exact same number of votes for Gov and Sen or those votes breaking the same way as the counted votes aren't givens.

However, Broward County generally seemed to have poor election management that may have marginally suppressed turnout - in this scenario a few people leaving a long line can have an impact.

I genuinely wonder what would've happened if we had another FL-2000 scenario where the Senate was decided by just a few hundred votes and every ballot becomes under scrutiny.

Overall though, I'm inclined to believe Scott would've still narrowly eeked it out - there's no particular reason to believe these undercount votes would've skewed more Dem friendly than the County at large - infact looking at precinct results it seems like more swingy and R-friendly areas had a bigger undercount than deep blue places.

[Roll Roons]

No, he lost because populous counties like Polk, Pasco, Hernando, Volusia, Manatee and Sarasota all swung hard against him. His failure to recognize the threat that Scott posed and bury him early is what sunk him more than a poorly-designed ballot.

[brucejoel99]

After the Sentinel mathed out Nelson losing by no less than 375 votes if Snipes hadn't screwed up Broward's ballot design, this guy claimed to have raw-mathed out Nelson winning by a maximum of no more than 44 votes based on a purportedly uncaught tabulation error in Liberty County (a-la, e.g., Gloria La Riva's 2008 Arkansas precinct win or, appropriately more timely, 3 days ago when Texas certified its primary results showing an apparent Haley win in Kent County thanks to all of Trump's E-Day votes there being mistabulated for her), so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[ProgressiveModerate]

No, he lost because populous counties like Polk, Pasco, Hernando, Volusia, Manatee and Sarasota all swung hard against him. His failure to recognize the threat that Scott posed and bury him early is what sunk him more than a poorly-designed ballot.

It was obviously a winnable race for Nelson regardless of the Broward County screw up, but I’m asking in the reality we got, would Broward County’s problem have made the difference.

Honestly FL-2018 still pains me as a Dem. If Nelson had taken the race seriously from the start and we nominated Gwen Graham, we could be looking at a very different picture of FL right now. I feel like 2018 set in motion a self-fulfilling prophecy of Florida being R-leaning; was deprioritized a bit in 2020 and the Republican government attracted R-leaning covid transplants, then in 2022 we got gerrymanders maps which meant Dems spent next to nothing in 2022 on Gov or Congressional races there. Heading into 2024, Nelson likely would’ve retired but I have a feeling Dems would take the open seat much more seriously than the current situation. Today Democrats don’t try in Florida anymore and we have an insane gap to close if we ever want to make FL competitive again.

I think FL-2018 is also what started the rightwards shifts with Cubans. Both Nelson and Gillum had absolutely terrible outreach; Nelson didn’t even hire a Hispanic outreach person till like 6 weeks before the election. Republicans ultimately dominated messaging, specifically to Cuban voters, and they reaped the benefits of that.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

No, he lost because populous counties like Polk, Pasco, Hernando, Volusia, Manatee and Sarasota all swung hard against him. His failure to recognize the threat that Scott posed and bury him early is what sunk him more than a poorly-designed ballot.

It was obviously a winnable race for Nelson regardless of the Broward County screw up, but I’m asking in the reality we got, would Broward County’s problem have made the difference.

Honestly FL-2018 still pains me as a Dem. If Nelson had taken the race seriously from the start and we nominated Gwen Graham, we could be looking at a very different picture of FL right now. I feel like 2018 set in motion a self-fulfilling prophecy of Florida being R-leaning; was deprioritized a bit in 2020 and the Republican government attracted R-leaning covid transplants, then in 2022 we got gerrymanders maps which meant Dems spent next to nothing in 2022 on Gov or Congressional races there. Heading into 2024, Nelson likely would’ve retired but I have a feeling Dems would take the open seat much more seriously than the current situation. Today Democrats don’t try in Florida anymore and we have an insane gap to close if we ever want to make FL competitive again.

I think FL-2018 is also what started the rightwards shifts with Cubans. Both Nelson and Gillum had absolutely terrible outreach; Nelson didn’t even hire a Hispanic outreach person till like 6 weeks before the election. Republicans ultimately dominated messaging, specifically to Cuban voters, and they reaped the benefits of that.

It was Dems version of NH 2016.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No, he lost because populous counties like Polk, Pasco, Hernando, Volusia, Manatee and Sarasota all swung hard against him. His failure to recognize the threat that Scott posed and bury him early is what sunk him more than a poorly-designed ballot.

It was obviously a winnable race for Nelson regardless of the Broward County screw up, but I’m asking in the reality we got, would Broward County’s problem have made the difference.

Honestly FL-2018 still pains me as a Dem. If Nelson had taken the race seriously from the start and we nominated Gwen Graham, we could be looking at a very different picture of FL right now. I feel like 2018 set in motion a self-fulfilling prophecy of Florida being R-leaning; was deprioritized a bit in 2020 and the Republican government attracted R-leaning covid transplants, then in 2022 we got gerrymanders maps which meant Dems spent next to nothing in 2022 on Gov or Congressional races there. Heading into 2024, Nelson likely would’ve retired but I have a feeling Dems would take the open seat much more seriously than the current situation. Today Democrats don’t try in Florida anymore and we have an insane gap to close if we ever want to make FL competitive again.

I think FL-2018 is also what started the rightwards shifts with Cubans. Both Nelson and Gillum had absolutely terrible outreach; Nelson didn’t even hire a Hispanic outreach person till like 6 weeks before the election. Republicans ultimately dominated messaging, specifically to Cuban voters, and they reaped the benefits of that.

It was Dems version of NH 2016.

Ye, although the consequences are a bit bigger given how many EVs and congressional districts Florida has. Also to be fair NH has mostly had R government since 2016, but even that seems like it could change soon

[Progressive Pessimist]

It didn't help, but no.

[Electric Circus]

Don't remind me of Bill Nelson. That's not a conversation I want to have within the next year.

[Schiff for Senate]

No, he lost because populous counties like Polk, Pasco, Hernando, Volusia, Manatee and Sarasota all swung hard against him. His failure to recognize the threat that Scott posed and bury him early is what sunk him more than a poorly-designed ballot.

I mean, obviously there are various larger factors of underperformance for the race to even have been close at all after Nelson won by a whopping 13 in 2012.

He absolutely dropped the ball, no question. The question being asked is, would this minor technicality have been enough to tip the outcome from very, very narrowly Scott to very, very narrowly Nelson? Mind you, even if removing this irregularity put Nelson right over the top, I would still definitely call Scott the moral winner.

On paper FL-SEN 2018 should have been at least Lean (closer to Likely) D.

[Mr. Smith]

No, he lost because populous counties like Polk, Pasco, Hernando, Volusia, Manatee and Sarasota all swung hard against him. His failure to recognize the threat that Scott posed and bury him early is what sunk him more than a poorly-designed ballot.

It was obviously a winnable race for Nelson regardless of the Broward County screw up, but I’m asking in the reality we got, would Broward County’s problem have made the difference.

Honestly FL-2018 still pains me as a Dem. If Nelson had taken the race seriously from the start and we nominated Gwen Graham, we could be looking at a very different picture of FL right now. I feel like 2018 set in motion a self-fulfilling prophecy of Florida being R-leaning; was deprioritized a bit in 2020 and the Republican government attracted R-leaning covid transplants, then in 2022 we got gerrymanders maps which meant Dems spent next to nothing in 2022 on Gov or Congressional races there. Heading into 2024, Nelson likely would’ve retired but I have a feeling Dems would take the open seat much more seriously than the current situation. Today Democrats don’t try in Florida anymore and we have an insane gap to close if we ever want to make FL competitive again.

I think FL-2018 is also what started the rightwards shifts with Cubans. Both Nelson and Gillum had absolutely terrible outreach; Nelson didn’t even hire a Hispanic outreach person till like 6 weeks before the election. Republicans ultimately dominated messaging, specifically to Cuban voters, and they reaped the benefits of that.

It was Dems version of NH 2016.

Chris Sununu still won that year, though I guess you could chalk up Van Ostern to the same sort of scrutiny as Matt Caldwell.

[OSR stands with Israel]

No, he lost because populous counties like Polk, Pasco, Hernando, Volusia, Manatee and Sarasota all swung hard against him. His failure to recognize the threat that Scott posed and bury him early is what sunk him more than a poorly-designed ballot.

It was obviously a winnable race for Nelson regardless of the Broward County screw up, but I’m asking in the reality we got, would Broward County’s problem have made the difference.

Honestly FL-2018 still pains me as a Dem. If Nelson had taken the race seriously from the start and we nominated Gwen Graham, we could be looking at a very different picture of FL right now. I feel like 2018 set in motion a self-fulfilling prophecy of Florida being R-leaning; was deprioritized a bit in 2020 and the Republican government attracted R-leaning covid transplants, then in 2022 we got gerrymanders maps which meant Dems spent next to nothing in 2022 on Gov or Congressional races there. Heading into 2024, Nelson likely would’ve retired but I have a feeling Dems would take the open seat much more seriously than the current situation. Today Democrats don’t try in Florida anymore and we have an insane gap to close if we ever want to make FL competitive again.

I think FL-2018 is also what started the rightwards shifts with Cubans. Both Nelson and Gillum had absolutely terrible outreach; Nelson didn’t even hire a Hispanic outreach person till like 6 weeks before the election. Republicans ultimately dominated messaging, specifically to Cuban voters, and they reaped the benefits of that.

It was Dems version of NH 2016.

Ye, although the consequences are a bit bigger given how many EVs and congressional districts Florida has. Also to be fair NH has mostly had R government since 2016, but even that seems like it could change soon

I would actually say it’s more similar to what 1994 was like for Texas Democrats.