March 2024, who is more likely to lose? Brown or Tester?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One thing I've noticed is Moreno is running a very blue collar, "populist" campaign and trying to steal some ground on Brown's signature issue of labor. Additionally, Brown lacks the same crossover appeal that Tester has judging by his 2012 performance. Meanwhile, Sheehy's campaign is very bland and very generic in comparison. His campaign doesn't seem tailored for Montana and he is basically running the Republican's generic culture war template.

The only reason why Brown on paper has higher odds is the partisan lean of the states. But if we go based off candidate quality, and considering the nation might actually be depolarizing a bit, I think Tester is in better shape. Plus smaller states have easier swings and crossover appeal factors that Tester could utilize to his advantage.