Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[n1240]

Altanta Metro e-day vote is insanely good for D's. In rest of state eday vote is swinging away from D's relative to Nov and is around 30-40% turnout increase, whilst the eday vote thus far in DeKalb/Fulton have around 6-8% swing towards D on just eday votes with 60-70% turnout increase.

[n1240]

The needle provides estimates by vote type and by county, you can take the time to analyze by comparing them to the reported early/absentee votes received, or checking in what precincts there is outstanding election day vote to find that there isn't anything egregiously bad within their estimates. My only main issues are they seem to be overestimating mail vote in Fulton and DeKalb by about 20k cumulatively, but that probably wouldn't be enough to change the outcome unless GA reg is within .25%, which seems unlikely given the other available data.

[n1240]

Looks like both Ossoff and Warnock broke 60% in Gwinnett

Still a few eday precincts, but should break around D+10, would mean Ossoff probably dips below while Warnock should be able to stay ahead of 60%.

[n1240]

Can Perdue squeeze another 10K margin out of Bartow?

they've only uploaded e-day results thus far so probably.

[n1240]

Ossoff lead now about 200k in DeKalb, up from 88k, would mean he's still down about 3k statewide. Caveat is that there are still about 20k early in-person left to count and 10k absentee by mail countywide.

https://www.dekalbcountyga.gov/sites/default/files/users/user297/ElectionSummaryReportRPT%201109p.pdf

[n1240]

Cobb, DeKalb, Henry are the only counties remaining with large numbers of outstanding votes, correct?

Chatham hasn't added early in-person votes, neither has Coffee, 1/4 of Fulton precincts outstanding (R lean but Ossoff/Warnock should still win these) also missing ~10k mail, Newton hasn't added mail-in votes.

[n1240]

Cobb, DeKalb, Henry are the only counties remaining with large numbers of outstanding votes, correct?

Chatham hasn't added early in-person votes, neither has Coffee, 1/4 of Fulton precincts outstanding (R lean but Ossoff/Warnock should still win these) also missing ~10k mail, Newton hasn't added mail-in votes.

Gabriel Sterling is claiming that it's only absentee by mail that came in today left in Chatham.

Yeah they added their early in-person votes two mins before I posted, trimmed about 3k from the lead.

[n1240]

Lead down to 4k with some more Fulton eday votes (about 18% of precincts have no eday votes and they're R leaning, Perdue probably wins outstanding Fulton eday vote, but still mail-in vote in the county to consider).

[n1240]

Newton mail and Coffee early in-person (this one probably added to Perdue's lead though) reduces margin to 384 votes.

[n1240]

Few county updates:

Cobb finishes e-day count: Perdue wins these about 25000-22000
Forsyth adds some mail votes: Ossoff wins these about 2600-2000
Pickens finishes e-day count: Perdue wins these about 1200-350

Perdue up about 3700 statewide, only outstanding R vote pockets remaining are Fulton E-day vote and Gilmer mail, still considering D chunks remaining (DeKalb early/absentee, Fulton absentee, Henry absentee, other mail scattered throughout the state

[n1240]

Few county updates:

Cobb finishes e-day count: Perdue wins these about 25000-22000
Forsyth adds some mail votes: Ossoff wins these about 2600-2000
Pickens finishes e-day count: Perdue wins these about 1200-350

Perdue up about 3700 statewide, only outstanding R vote pockets remaining are Fulton E-day vote and Gilmer mail, still considering D chunks remaining (DeKalb early/absentee, Fulton absentee, Henry absentee, other mail scattered throughout the state

Fulton drops most of outstanding e-day just as I post this.

Turns out these eday votes in Fulton weren't R leaning as I expected based on precinct data, they break about 14000-12500 in favor of Ossoff

edit: looks to be about 5 outstanding precincts (1 with 1 voter) summing to 504 November election day votes, with average margin of R+8, so probably end up getting like 800 more e-day in Fulton that'll be nearly tied.

[n1240]

Few county updates:

Cobb finishes e-day count: Perdue wins these about 25000-22000
Forsyth adds some mail votes: Ossoff wins these about 2600-2000
Pickens finishes e-day count: Perdue wins these about 1200-350

Perdue up about 3700 statewide, only outstanding R vote pockets remaining are Fulton E-day vote and Gilmer mail, still considering D chunks remaining (DeKalb early/absentee, Fulton absentee, Henry absentee, other mail scattered throughout the state

Coffee?

Newton mail and Coffee early in-person (this one probably added to Perdue's lead though) reduces margin to 384 votes.

Coffee was about 5300-2200 Perdue, Newton 10000-3600 to be specific.

[n1240]

Just noticed that Fulton actually snuck in most, if not all of their remaining mail in the last vote dump.

[n1240]

Bibb adds some mail, Ossoff wins these 1025-364.

[n1240]

When does Ossoff take the statewide lead?

probably whenever Henry/DeKalb post more mail votes (or in DeKalb's case, early in-person).

[n1240]

mail votes from Coffee 669-561 Ossoff
e-day votes from Fulton 261-80 Ossoff

statewide lead down to 1100

[n1240]

So... the election day turnout is likely going to be in the vicinity of 1.3 to 1.4m which is way bigger than even the GOP's wildest dreams and also far bigger than what it was in November, and yet they (republicans) still lost, lol. Who predicted that?

Also, hats off to the NYT needle. Their model was absolutely perfect (probably helped greatly by the last election being so close). If one just paid attention to it and ignored cable news (CNN) or random tweets, they wouldn't have panicked at any moment all night through.

Seems there is a pretty strong case that GOP voters who voted early (in-person or by-mail) decided to resort towards voting on election day this time instead. Absentee by-mail vote swung about 9% D from November, early in-person 8% D, while e-day swung 5% R (average around 7-9% in GOP counties, average is brought down heavily by Atlanta burbs where e-day vote was generally more favorable for Dems relatively).

edit: fixed calcs

[n1240]

Relatively small dump from DeKalb compared to what they have left, but they break about 5400-500 in Ossoff's favor, so he leads statewide now.

[n1240]

Relatively small dump from DeKalb compared to what they have left, but they break about 5400-500 in Ossoff's favor, so he leads statewide now.

Source?

old results
new results

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/CNNValencia/status/1346709009127120896?s=20

Unclear if this 19k includes votes from last batch or not, but would towards not given the previously reported absentee totals in the county.

[n1240]

Fulton status:

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1346710821058056192

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/CNNValencia/status/1346709009127120896?s=20

Unclear if this 19k includes votes from last batch or not, but would towards not given the previously reported absentee totals in the county.

Crumpled piece of paper LOL

After posting, I was thinking that that might imply the paper is a bit older than the recent DeKalb vote update, which would mean 13k left, which lines up with number of early in-person they reported, but they should still have around 12k mail left to count as well.

[n1240]

more from DeKalb, Ossoff wins these 6300-333

https://www.dekalbcountyga.gov/sites/default/files/users/user297/ElectionSummaryReportRPT%20136a.pdf

[n1240]

Remaining absentee votes based on analyzing absentee files:

Early in-person: less than 1500 scattered statewide
Absentee by mail: around 56000

Mail breakdown by county:
DeKalb 17000
Henry 8600
Fulton 7500
Chatham 5300
Gwinnett 5200
Cobb 4900
Gilmer 2900
Bryan 1500
Dougherty 1200
Fayette 850
Peach 500
Butts 450
Other small counties 350
Lowndes 300

[n1240]

couple updates:

Gilmer (mail) 1735-1166 Perdue
Fulton (mail) 1720-496 Ossoff