2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[n1240]

What's the holdup with NYT and Arizona? It's very obviously a Biden win. I don't know why they're not calling it at 98%

NYT now saying that just ~28K votes estimated left

Pretty sure Maricopa has around 250k votes left so these NYTimes estimates might be incorrect

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1323775218758737920
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1323817136192589825

[n1240]

Just out of curiosity...why are Dems still high on Georgia?  Trump has a 100k lead with >90% of the vote reporting, and NYT has Fulton and Gwinnett as nearly fully-in.  The only outstanding vote for Dems seem to spread out between DeKalb, Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond and Bibb, but these are all north of 80% reported already.

Biden probably closes the margin some, but him flipping it this late in the count seems very unlikely to me.   

There is like ~127K out just from Fulton and DeKalb. I don't think the % are taking into account that its all VBM.

Where are you seeing the 127k number, though?  Biden is already ahead of Clinton's  2016 totals in Fulton by ~10k votes

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/Fulton/105430/web.264614/#/detail/1?v=268871%2F

Only 380k early vote tallied so far in Fulton, but they had 450k reported early votes cast, similar trend for DeKalb.

[n1240]

Philadelphia new mail-in batch

Biden 40984
Trump 3329

Biden wins these by 85%, approximately 160k uncounted mail in the county.

Ugh, wut? Biden is still trialing by half a million in PA. He's gotta find them somewhere. Otherwise, we may actually end up with the HORRIBLE 270 map if GA doesn't flip. That's giving me a lot of anxiety. I mean, it would be a great Hollywood blockbuster, but we have a literal fascist in the WH who must go.

Biden is in very good position. Just looking at some of largest counties, Biden can net 130k from Philly, 130k in Allegheny, 45k from Montgomery, 40k from Bucks, 35k from Chester, 20k from Delaware. Might try and work on more detailed counts for rest of counties but Biden will still win absentee vote in counties that are pretty pro Trump, the moderate/small counties can probably make up the remaining 150k needed to overcome Trump's margin.

[n1240]

Wayne County new batch

Biden 41372
Trump 20570

Still reasonable amount of vote remaining.

[n1240]

Noticed that the outstanding vote in Kent County is mostly just Grand Rapids absentee vote. Looks like Biden will win Kent County pretty easily once these votes are in, considering the current margin in the county.

[n1240]

GA very slowly adding some mail-in vote

DeKalb (around 52k left)

Biden 1812
Trump 256

Houston (around 19k left)

Biden 709
Trump 482

[n1240]

DeKalb absentee vote counted today

Biden 18457
Trump 2672

Approximately 30k left

[n1240]

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

Not sure if I'd consider a race with a high chance to be a runoff as "easily won". Also not sure how you can conclude Trump has won narrowly at this point, unless you can show me something in the data that I'm not seeing.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/zachgorchow/status/1324020925004685314?s=21

probably doesn't really change much though

[n1240]

116-117k ballots are outstanding in NC, per CBS.

Outstanding here means voters who requested a ballot but don't have a ballot return/in-person vote reported for them, so the amount of ballots that would get added is likely to be much lower.

[n1240]

Biden has taken a 1% lead in Bucks County and there are 30k ballots left to count in the county.

[n1240]

Biden has taken a 1% lead in Bucks County and there are 30k ballots left to count in the county.

Where'd you see this? NYT still has Trump with a tiny lead in Bucks.

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/BucksPA/LiveResults/en/Index_2.html

[n1240]

Biden has taken a 1% lead in Bucks County and there are 30k ballots left to count in the county.

Where'd you see this? NYT still has Trump with a tiny lead in Bucks.

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/BucksPA/LiveResults/en/Index_2.html

Holy ticket splitting.

Yeah I didn't realize until a few hours ago how much better Fitzpatrick did than Trump.

[n1240]

Looks like Chester County PA finished their mail-in count, 13% more votes than 2016 and Biden's margin is 7% higher than Clinton's (9.3% -> 16.5%). Biden is really running up the margins he needs in the Dem trending areas while Trump really isn't doing much better in the rural parts of the state.

[n1240]

Montgomery County PA only has 15k more votes to count but currently Biden is doing 4% than Clinton (21.3% -> 25.6%) and there are about 16% more ballots cast than 2016.

[n1240]

Looks like Chester County PA finished their mail-in count, 13% more votes than 2016 and Biden's margin is 7% higher than Clinton's (9.3% -> 16.5%). Biden is really running up the margins he needs in the Dem trending areas while Trump really isn't doing much better in the rural parts of the state.

And Trump is underperforming in some of his areas like Lancaster. When Erie's mail ballots come in, Biden is expected to take the lead.

Biden is on pace to easily win Erie County, probably by around 5k votes or so. And yeah Trump is struggling in the moderate sized red vote sinks while holding onto 2016 margins in smaller counties. Washington, Westmoreland, Lancaster, York, and Luzerne are all showing smaller margins for Trump than 2016.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324207280443793409?s=20

That’s about 80%! He’s well on-pace...

This seems wrong comparing the SOS statewide result to the Fulton County result.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/Fulton/105430/web.264614/#/summary?v=269253%2F

Margin only increased in Fulton by 3k votes but still a lot outstanding.

[n1240]

The current margin in PA is 164,414.

Philly is now about 70% in. Trump + Biden current total = 571,552.

That implies that there are 244,000 mail in votes left in Philly.

Up until now, VBM in PA has been Biden +68%.

This means from Philly alone, Biden can expect to gain 166,000 votes.

That's just enough to erase the gap.

Philly has 120k left, can find remaining ballot counts here https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx (some are outdated, particularly York where they actually have close to 0 ballots left).

[n1240]

The current margin in PA is 164,414.

Philly is now about 70% in. Trump + Biden current total = 571,552.

That implies that there are 244,000 mail in votes left in Philly.

Up until now, VBM in PA has been Biden +68%.

This means from Philly alone, Biden can expect to gain 166,000 votes.

That's just enough to erase the gap.

Philly has 120k left, can find remaining ballot counts here https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx (some are outdated, particularly York where they actually have close to 0 ballots left).

Philyl has 70% reported on NYT. and has reported about 570,000. So they're are roughly 820,000 votes in total. So about 250,000.

Why are you relying on NYTimes when I literally provided a data source from the state?

[n1240]

It is fairly obvious that Biden is going to win PA guys...

look at all the counties at 100% reporting.  With the exception of some rural counties where Trump has marginally improved, Biden has improved on Hillary's numbers, sometimes as much as 10%.  

I think Biden wins PA very easily (and have said implied so multiple times in this thread) but Philly doesn't have as many ballots as media projections are suggesting, still good for a Biden+2-3% lead overall though.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1324217105433030656

Should expect the later batches to be worse for Trump than the last update in Maricopa County.

[n1240]

Even if Philly has "only" 170k votes left, that's probably enough for at least a 140k lead for Biden which would reduce Trump's margin to about 26k. Plenty left elsewhere to erase that. Biden probably does better in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin and Michigan.

Philly, Allegheny, Bucks, Lehigh combined net about 170k for Biden by my calcs. Biden probably gains around 70k from the rest of the state

[n1240]

According to the Philadelphia county website, turnout was 51% and they’ve received a total of 233583
Mail votes with 97% counted.

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?&cat=PREC

That only represents what's been reported so far. The 97% represents precincts reporting election day results and may or may not include absentee ballots. On their website, you can see that they've reported 234K absentee ballots but if you click on the "mail-in and absentee ballots status report" you will see that they recorded 346K AVs as of 11/2.

In other words, there are a lot of votes that haven't been added and that's deflating their turnout figures.

Yeah the 97% precincts is just eday precincts, not total vote lol, still at least 120k mail left.

[n1240]

NC 2%
GA 60%
AZ 85%
NV 95%
PA 99%

[n1240]

Trump's path is pretty difficult in Arizona because the more recent batches of vote have a composition that is more favorable to him. The latest returned ballots in the state have a lower GOP % and higher unaffiliated %, which makes me think it's unlikely he can sustain getting 59% of the vote in the Maricopa County batches, which is what he would need to win the state.