2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Collin and Denton

Also Suffolk (NY), Nassau, Kern, Lee (FL), El Paso (CO), Polk (FL). Though I think Nassau will probably flip to Biden once mail ballots are counted.

Nassau has about a D+40000 party reg advantage on mail so I think it almost certainly flips.

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GA: Biden +4263.  Gwinnett must have dumped.

yep

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Yuma County AZ batch

Biden 2361 (48.7%)
Trump 2337 (48.2%)

Countywide margin is Trump 52-46

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NYT's site just updated NC for the 1st time in days. Went from 95 to 98%.

I'd post a link but I can't yet since I'm a newb.

They have better expectation of outstanding ballots now

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1324825778966712320

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https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1324865787023265797

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I'm not sure how accurate this is, but apparently AZ-3 still has a lot of outstanding vote?

AZ-03 seems overrepresented in the Maricopa County vote total if anything.

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Trump 26992
Biden 19513

58-42 two-party split in new Maricopa batch

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Biden is still on reasonable pace to win AZ but Biden's raw vote margin in the state probably ends up similar to his raw vote margin in GA

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Provisional votes are a bit difficult to predict, which is most of what is left in AZ. On one hand they are mostly cast in-person so would be favorable to Trump, on other hand, they are demographically more favorable to Biden.

[n1240]

Provisional votes are a bit difficult to predict, which is most of what is left in AZ. On one hand they are mostly cast in-person so would be favorable to Trump, on other hand, they are demographically more favorable to Biden.

Does AZ make people fill out a provisional if they vote in person after requesting a mail-in ballot?

I believe so, yes

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Seems possible that Biden wins GA by more than AZ in the end now.

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Pinal County batch

Trump 4700 (66.3%)
Biden 2225 (31.4%)

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Pinal County batch

Trump 4700 (66.3%)
Biden 2225 (31.4%)

Also (the statewide lead shown is probably before the Pinal County batch):

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325223711914356736

Yeah 18713 per SOS site now.

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97% in.  It's over and they should call it for Biden by now.

for alex.github.io, Trump is in the way for take AZ, he needs 56.8% and is averaging 59%

The math on his site assumes all provisionals will be counted.  When only about half usually are

Count rate in general elections in AZ is around 80% historically, I believe.

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https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/1325257077887954944

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Apache County batch

Trump 1171 (51.4%)
Biden 1068 (46.9%)
Total 2279

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AZ is going to get really close. Might end up being closer than Georgia. But I think Biden wins in the end. Not that it matters, but I've grown quite attached to our 306 map. 295 wouldn't have the same oomph.

trump wins AZ then wins GA in recount.  PA mail votes thrown out by SC and trump wins

The probability of all three of these events occurring is less than .0001%. It's also likely that Biden still wins PA even if mail-in ballots received after polls close aren't counted, which would be the only mail-in votes which could potentially be tossed.

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there is a schedule for today counts update?

i just noted a update in Alaska count, Trump margin is up to 54,610

The AK SOS has had these results for days, no mail-in votes have been included.

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there is a schedule for today counts update?

i just noted a update in Alaska count, Trump margin is up to 54,610

The AK SOS has had these results for days, no mail-in votes have been included.

Was not 51,382 that until yesterday?

I've seen nearly the same margin on the AK SOS for multiple days now, there is definitely 0 mail-in vote included in the current AK count.

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I've seen nearly the same margin on the AK SOS for multiple days now, there is definitely 0 mail-in vote included in the current AK count.

i gone on their page the pdf is from 1:25 pm of the 11/6
i'm not telling that they counted mail ballots but it's possible they did some corrections

It's marginal if anything, the margin barely changed over the past few days as I've said from the SOS results.

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Maricopa batch

Biden 3753
Trump 2999

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Another dump in Arizona. Biden's lead dropped to 16,952 votes

Trump 8567
Biden 4491
Total 13417

Pinal - 500 mail-in ballots, 1700 provs remaining in the county.

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We are up past 149.3 million votes on the cook popular vote tracker and Biden has not even reached 3% in the popular vote, Nate Silver tweeted out recently maybe he could win by 5 or even 6 points with late ballots, I doubt it, in California Biden's margin has gone from +33 to +31.3 as more votes have come in, New York should give a big boost to Biden but since election day Biden has only been winning votes by 16.5%, if we assume turnout of 160 million, a 16.5% advantage among the remaining vote would get Biden to a 3.9% margin in the popular vote.

Biden can net about 250k from Maryland, 1 mil from NY (only mail-in vote remaining, massive Dem advantage) and Cali respectively which should get around to 4.5%

[n1240]

We are up past 149.3 million votes on the cook popular vote tracker and Biden has not even reached 3% in the popular vote, Nate Silver tweeted out recently maybe he could win by 5 or even 6 points with late ballots, I doubt it, in California Biden's margin has gone from +33 to +31.3 as more votes have come in, New York should give a big boost to Biden but since election day Biden has only been winning votes by 16.5%, if we assume turnout of 160 million, a 16.5% advantage among the remaining vote would get Biden to a 3.9% margin in the popular vote.

Biden can net about 250k from Maryland, 1 mil from NY (only mail-in vote remaining, massive Dem advantage) and Cali respectively which should get around to 4.5%

California seems to more friendly to republicans as the votes come in however the net votes may be greater for Biden

1 million is a bit of a blanket estimate, depends on how much Trump overperforms on late ballots relative to current count. Some counties seem to have large variation in new votes, but in almost county that has reported new ballots Trump seems to do better - some extreme cases being San Luis Obispo where Biden was up 22% before and Trump won the latest batch by 12%, or El Dorado which went Trump+6 to Trump+34 on new count.

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CD numbers:

AZ-06 - Trump +4
IA-02 - Trump +4

Last I checked couple OC districts (they added some votes so may have changed. last checked Sunday morning)
CA-45: Biden+2
CA-48: Biden+11

GA-06: Biden+10 (estimate, adjusted for some Cobb County precinct splits)
GA-07: Biden+6 (estimate, adjusted for some Forsyth County precinct splits)
SC-01: Trump+5.5
PA-17: Biden+2

Can do others upon request, although it depends on access + usability of county/state precinct data (counties/states that use Clarity are easiest).