NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[n1240]

Will the NSDP have a page reporting precinct level results like they did in 2016 and how Iowa did this year? I'm trying to search for it but I'm unable to find anything.

[n1240]

Is Nevada reporting raw vote total this year?

yes

[n1240]

3.500 votes in (first preference), with 1.5% of the precincts.

That still points to a 250.000 to 300.000 turnout, which would be pretty cool.

But the numbers probably won’t hold up as more precincts come in ...

A quarter of the precincts have 10 or fewer registered dems and about 350 have 0 registered dems (before election day) so definitely not.

[n1240]

If Bernie comes out of this having blocked anyone else from even getting delegates, what does it even mean for South Carolina? Does it give him a running chance of actually winning there and ending Biden for good?

I don't think it's possible for him to sweep at the delegates in Nevada at this point, slightly chance he gets all the statewide delegates but couple others are probably guaranteed to win some congressional district delegates. Biden probably wants to spin a 2nd place finish into a positive, but if he can't crack 15% statewide it'll be even harder to spin that going forward into South Carolina.

[n1240]

What's the over/under on Sanders being the only viable statewide candidate?

Think you means odds rather than o/u but 20% chance or so seems reasonable right now.

[n1240]

CNN now has county delegates at:

Sanders 29%
Warren 19%
Biden 17%
Buttigieg 17%
Klobuchar 9%
Steyer 7%

Only 1% in though

Seems like it's only 75 county delegates, closer to .5% of total delegates

[n1240]

Partial (22%) results from Buttigieg campaign - Sanders doubling up Pete who is in 2nd

https://peteforamerica.com/nevada-results/

[n1240]

If those #s hold up, the delegates would be:

Sanders: 24
Biden: 11
Buttigieg: 1

congressional district breakdown of delegates here: https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/NV-D

They seem to be using different numbers than the NSDP for their calculations, this is what I have based on the NSDP numbers:

CD1: Sanders 4 Biden 1
CD2: Sanders 4 Biden 2 Buttigieg 2
CD3: Sanders 3 Buttigieg 2 Biden 1
CD4: Sanders 3 Biden 3
PLEO: Sanders 3 Biden 2
At-Large: Sanders 5 Biden 3

Total:
Sanders 22
Biden 10
Buttigieg 4

[n1240]

Noticed that NV-01 has a disproportionate ratio of delegates to turnout relative to the other districts (more so 2 and 3, not so much 4), which really helps buoy Sanders' county delegate lead since he's receiving 60% of the delegates there

Votes per delegate in each district:

NV-01: 5.4
NV-02: 10.2
NV-03: 8.4
NV-04: 5.6

Also simple extrapolation which assumes that the remaining precincts in each district are representative of the rest (probably not true) would put Buttigieg below viability statewide