Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Associate Justice PiT]

     NV is looking bad for Dems. I wouldn't write them off in AZ yet.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://twitter.com/ChristianHeiens/status/1590068716120571905
More bad news.

     My intuition told me Spanberger might fall, but I didn't have the guts to predict that in my House map.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years.

We've been talking about it for the past 10 years.

     FL Dems have been struggling for some time now. The only surprising part is how quickly the floor is giving way for them.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590091105839611906

     Seeing Indies blow out Dems in representation at the polls is impressive.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

[Associate Justice PiT]

So far, what I can say with reasonable certainty is that, if there's a wave environment, it's going to be extremely inconsistent. The idea that the Midwest may depolarize at the same time the Sun Belt swings back from us is just madness to me. Feels like a sudden whiplash back into 2008.

     Given the degree of geographic polarization in recent years, it is not that surprising that the election narrative would play out very differently in different parts of the country. The issues that Democrat vs. Republican partisans emphasize right now are so different that it sounds like they are describing entirely different countries.

[Associate Justice PiT]

This is as far as I go. I'm unplugging from election for the night. I tried as long as I could, but I no longer feel that I can go on.

See you on the other side.

     No shame in calling it quits when you need to. Get some rest!

[Associate Justice PiT]

Okay but based Virginia Beach now? Were the early DOA results a little much now?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1590107558190383105?s=46&t=v3Ttg5tDPrsmHA...

Youngkin won this district by like 8 points on that night didn’t he? Matching 2021 is enough

     2021 was a strong year for the VA GOP. That is not the target Democrats want to hit.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I think I'm just going to go offline until, like 8 PM. The first hour or two of results is rarely helpful in figuring things out and honestly I'd rather be doing literally anything other than adding to my stress in that way.

I actually disagree.  Looking at county swings in the Indiana and Kentucky counties that will close soon can actually be informative for similar rural counties.  Like, I could tell in 2020 that Trump's margins were slightly down from 2016 in a lot of those counties.

     And likewise I discovered Trump crushing Romney's performance in small rurals in 2016, which was my first clue that he was far more competitive than the MSM narrative let on.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://twitter.com/DawnBernadotte/status/1590079349549830144

     Dems losing the House is an ice-cold take. Saying they will hold the Senate is much more interesting. I note that the tweet does not comment on his midterm election track record.

[Associate Justice PiT]

LOL at all the red avatars from Midwestern and Northeastern dumps coping by spamming the Bugs Bunny Florida GIF

"How dare this growing, diverse state not vote for us?"

Nothing takes away our appeal as one of the most popular states in the country that is one of the best states to live in

     People on Atlas think your state votes the wrong way, so all of the nice things about it are invalid. Don't worry too much about the takes of political nerds.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I never bought the hype about O'Dea. CO is not the kind of state to really respond to a weak national environment for Dems.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Republicans have not picked up a single House seat that wasn’t gerrymandered to be safe GOP.

     VA-2 was gerrymandered to be safe GOP?

[Associate Justice PiT]

Republicans have not picked up a single House seat that wasn’t gerrymandered to be safe GOP.

     VA-2 was gerrymandered to be safe GOP?

Wasn’t called when I posted this.

     I saw a source on Twitter call it an hour ago.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Still opportunities for a good R surge in CA and NV, that is where it looked the strongest anyways so lets see...
Otherwise an obviously unexpectedly good night for Ds.

     I'm optimistic about NV. Less so about CA. The thing about these titanium blue states is that the environment there is always more D-friendly than the nation as a whole. And given that the red wave has fizzled out overall....

[Associate Justice PiT]

tonight showed this isnt trumps party anymore
all of his candidates are sucking
it's desantis's party

     Yeah, Trump's contributions have been as much of a flop as the Tea Party costing us winnable Senate seats in DE/IN/MO a decade ago. I was already on the DeSantis train, but this has strengthened my resolve that he needs to beat Trump in the 2024 primaries

[Associate Justice PiT]

Beto is getting spanked.

Best news of the night besides Boebert possibly losing.

     Rising star to sacrificial lamb. How the mighty have fallen!

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Hey, we're up in CA-13. They can go ahead and stop counting now.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     On another note, I see the Republican challenger has finally pulled ahead in IA-3. Still too close to call though.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://twitter.com/SharonCoolidge/status/1590198234521432064

I want my accolades for correctly predicting this race earlier today:

For a more specific race, OH-01 is one district I'm watching because it seems like the kind of district that could buck the national environment. Specifically, it is a high single-digit, D-trending urban/suburban Biden district with an incumbent who is somewhat out of step ideologically with his new district (which has also changed significantly through redistricting and Chabot has lost before under less favorable lines). If I had to guess one incumbent Republican that will lose reelection, it would be Chabot.

     But did it really buck the national environment when there was no red wave? Seriously though, congratulations on calling that one.

[Associate Justice PiT]

What happened to Sean Patrick Maloney? in NY-17? That is so far perhaps the biggest Dem under-performance of the night in a election cycle where the polls did remarkably well. Weird.

My pulled out of my ass 231 Pubs in the House, 51 in the Senate, night actually be rather clairvoyant.

     I just noticed that Maloney is down by double-digits with 68% in. I'm guessing he still makes it, but very weak for a district Biden won by 10. I see the DCCC was smart to hit the panic button on that one.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Gavin please… it’s time to work your magic

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1590214233094230017?s=46&t=WFg3JCN8kxNe...

The house is not happening sir...

this is still a fairly republican year.

     We definitely underperformed and I have some egg on my face, but it's not exactly a Dem win this year either. What we really lost was the expectations game. It's a humbling experience, for sure.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Gavin please… it’s time to work your magic

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1590214233094230017?s=46&t=WFg3JCN8kxNe...

The house is not happening sir...

this is still a fairly republican year.

     We definitely underperformed and I have some egg on my face, but it's not exactly a Dem win this year either. What we really lost was the expectations game. It's a humbling experience, for sure.

Oh no, this is a Dem win. That's not the hack in me talking, Republicans need to do some deep soul searching after this. This was a catastrophic night for them and for those who insist on making Trump worship part of the GOP platform.

     Trump was as bad for us as the Tea Party. I am more committed than ever to supporting a DeSantis run in 2024 after tonight. Trump helped pivot us away from the market fundamentalism of the Obama-era GOP, but he is an extremely limited person on multiple levels and has no real ability to carry us to victory at this juncture.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1590365531961708546?s=20&t=12CTnS...

     The unpacking of NY is a surprise bright spot in GOP fortunes this year. I don't think most people expected that seat to flip.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Maloney concedes the race in NY-17

Incredible that this moron evicted Mondaire Jones because he thought NY-17 would be easier than NY-18.

     That's the mindset of someone who doesn't have the guts to fight a serious campaign. If he had taken NY-18 he probably would have lost that seat instead.