Lending more credibility to Keystone Phil's anecdotes.

[NOVA Green]

I'll just use this thread for random anecdotal evidence...

I visited my Grandparents tonight. My Grandmother was telling me about a certain someone she is friendly with who stopped to talk to her at a local diner. All I'll say about this certain someone is that he or she is a major Democratic ward leader here in the NE Philly and this person also holds elected office.

The person asked my Grandmother, "So be honest. Who do you want?" My Grandmother told her that she's for McCain. The Democratic ward leader responded, "I wish there were more people like you."

Interesting. Anecdotal evidence that Dem ward leaders in North Philly wanted to make a deal with the McCain campaign, hoping to be kingmakers by delivering Dem votes for him, but there weren't enough people like your grandmother to make it work. Sounds like that guy was happy to find someone who agreed with him and had heard "Obama" too many times.

First off, it's NE Philly. Secondly, it's not necessarily a "him." Finally, the ward leader may be looking to the polls too much (which explains the "I wish there were more people like you" line).

Funny that we're talking about that ward leader. That ward leader is the Democratic ward leader of my ward. And that has to do with what I saw today...

As I was leaving mass, I saw an Obama canvasser walking around. I decided to take a drive and noticed several of them walking around. They were bringing people in by vans. I went home and noticed that they had hit my area (and got up a few signs. I think McCain still has the edge in my division but it's close). That type of stuff only motivates me. I dropped 95% of my precinct (which is rather big by Philly standards) with McCain door knockers in an hour and a half with the help of a friend. We then went out to the Montco HQs and helped out there a bit. The reason why this is connected to that ward leader is because the Obama folks must know that they're not getting any help from the leader/committeepeople. That's a problem.

Any of that have to do with the "street money" situation? Will it help in NE Philly to actually have some local boots on the ground, rather than people bused in from NJ and NY?

[NOVA Green]

Any of that have to do with the "street money" situation? Will it help in NE Philly to actually have some local boots on the ground, rather than people bused in from NJ and NY?

Some of it is connected to the street money problem. However, please recall that the ward leader I mentioned is also an elected official. This person's district (except for some black areas) is not an Obama area at all and yes, it's based mostly on race. Plus, Obama is just not the same type of Democrat as this person.

Yes, it always helps to have the local people on the ground. Obama relying on people outside of the area shows the obvious disconnect. Plenty of Democratic commiteepeople want nothing to do with Obama and that includes not voting for him and, in some situations, helping McCain.

Do you think Obama will be forced to spend street money if PA internals start tightening to the 4-5 point range by the end of next week? Although if there is as much antipathy towards Obama in a few of these wards you are talking about, including amongst local elected Dem officials, would it even help?

[NOVA Green]

I can't believe that I forgot the funniest part of the day!

I had to head down to the NE Philly HQs to pick up some new McCain door hangers for Election day GOTV. The HQs is right off of Frankford and Cottman Avenues - the Times Square of NE Philly. Standing on the sidewalk in our Times Square are a bunch of McCain volunteers with tons of signs. The reception was awesome but that's not the point; the point is who was waving these signs. There were about four people there that were Democrats for McCain. One of them was a Jewish boy from NJ, a Jewish guy from the south and two girls from NY. Oh...yeah...two black girls. They were all Hillary people so I was thrilled to see them come out for McCain. I, of course, had to yell "Party Unity My Ass!" They loved it. They also claimed that CNN was there minutes before I arrived. I highly doubt that but if anyone saw anything on CNN about NE Philly, let me know.

Get laid tonight?

Just kidding, but congrats on the enthusiasm... it's been quite a few years since I felt energetic enough to actually participate in campaigning, and honestly I appreciate your drive (even though you are on the wrong side on this one

[NOVA Green]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/03/us/politics/03penn.html?ref=politics

Lending more credibility to Phil's anecdotes....

[NOVA Green]

Well I guess we know now once and for all the credibility of anecdotal evidence.

Phil at the very beginning of the thread basically admitted that PA was lost and that McCain should invest elsewhere... anecdotal evidence is interesting, but I don't think Phil once claimed that PA would go for McCain based solely on anecdotal evidence. He did claim on another thread that Obama would have serious problems if he didn't carry Philadelphia County by 77+ points (which ended up happening), and the analysis of a few wards was based on primarily anecdotal evidence (although 2-3 key wards were correctly identified).

Ultimately Phil's anecdotal evidence played into the overall narrative in a way that benefited analysis and discussion of the Presidential Race in PA in a helpful manner.

[NOVA Green]

So...unlock it for your benefit...lock it for people to opine on how wrong they think you were.

No, I lock it when people decide to mock me. I'm more than willing to have a civil conversation about this stuff. Too many people here decided to make a mockery of what I was saying.

Hey, many of us also appreciated your reports from the ground as well, even though there were certainly a few claims that invited skepticism... none of us have ever been guilty of making predictions that ended up being proved wrong

This latest post reinforces some of the observations you were making earlier on, and also helps explain the final results in NE Philly.

Thanks for the latest contribution, BTW!

[NOVA Green]

Aren't these two articles just more proof anecdotal evidence is total bullsh**t? How does this back up your claims in any way?

It's proof that it wasn't just me saying all of this. I wasn't crazy for saying this stuff. I was backed up by Democratic Obama supporters up until the polls closed on November 4th.

Thanks for the latest contribution, BTW!

You are a good person, my friend. Thanks for being mature (that's worthy of thanks on this forum).

Well hey, I know that anecdotal evidence is frequently looked down upon on this board, but there is a place for it, particularly when it originates from someone who is both knowledgeable about local politics and has connections to campaign networks.

BTW: I was shocked to find out that my 92 year old Granpa from York, PA almost voted for Obama. That side of the family has been Republican since the Civil War, although I believe my Grandfather did back Roosevelt a few times, and LBJ as well. (OK--- that is much more anecdotal than most of the stuff you have posted on Philly )