Lending more credibility to Keystone Phil's anecdotes.

[TeePee4Prez]

I find it hard to believe racist Democrats in NE Philly will vote McCain, who voted with Bush over 90% of the time. I'd say they are far more likely to not vote for anybody at the top of the ballot than they are to vote for McCain.

At the risk of sounding like Jack Murtha,,,,,,

There are some amongst us who are racist and yes there will be a black/Hillary bitterness penalty here.  Thing is there are plenty of Obama signs here and it was about the same ratio as Kerry/Bush 04, but a smaller number of both.  Phil is right about South Philly though.  I am surprised to see the support for McCain there.  Lots of union guys down there, BUT they very much don't like blacks. 

[Keystone Phil]

OMG ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE!

Which you have been the worst abuser of forever. It's quite ironic.

I find it hard to believe racist Democrats in NE Philly will vote McCain, who voted with Bush over 90% of the time. I'd say they are far more likely to not vote for anybody at the top of the ballot than they are to vote for McCain.

At the risk of sounding like Jack Murtha,,,,,,

There are some amongst us who are racist and yes there will be a black/Hillary bitterness penalty here.  Thing is there are plenty of Obama signs here and it was about the same ratio as Kerry/Bush 04, but a smaller number of both.  Phil is right about South Philly though.  I am surprised to see the support for McCain there.  Lots of union guys down there, BUT they very much don't like blacks. 

Thank you. This is, of course, ignored once again by some of your forum friends that love to say that my analysis is totally flawed.

[J. J.]

Phil, I'm seeing the same stuff.  The party types are not behind Obama in my 95% black ward.  What difference will that make?  Not a heck of a lot; Obama will the ward between 95% and 98%.  It might cost a few points of turnout.

[cinyc]

Phil, I'm seeing the same stuff.  The party types are not behind Obama in my 95% black ward.  What difference will that make?  Not a heck of a lot; Obama will the ward between 95% and 98%.  It might cost a few points of turnout.

Did the Obama campaign agree to give the ward leaders street money?

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, I'm seeing the same stuff.  The party types are not behind Obama in my 95% black ward.  What difference will that make?  Not a heck of a lot; Obama will the ward between 95% and 98%.  It might cost a few points of turnout.

Did the Obama campaign agree to give the ward leaders street money?

I don't know of any developmens so no, they didn't.

[J. J.]

Phil, I'm seeing the same stuff.  The party types are not behind Obama in my 95% black ward.  What difference will that make?  Not a heck of a lot; Obama will the ward between 95% and 98%.  It might cost a few points of turnout.

Did the Obama campaign agree to give the ward leaders street money?

I mention the refrigerator magnet.  It says "Presidential election" but doesn't say who the candidate is. 

[NOVA Green]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/03/us/politics/03penn.html?ref=politics

Lending more credibility to Phil's anecdotes....

[memphis]

Every poll in the last 6 month > anecdotal evidence.
FWIW, I have an aunt and uncle in Bucks. He's retired from the Navy. She has low-level gov't job. Very working class people who supported Reagan and old Bush as recently as 1992. Hillary primary voters and very pro-Obama for the general.

[??????????]

Yeah Memphis, PA is such a lock for Obama that he's been campaigning there, right?

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/03/us/politics/03penn.html?ref=politics

Lending more credibility to Phil's anecdotes....

I was just about to post that. Thank you. 

I also want to thank you for being one of the few civil people here when it comes to hearing me out and you and I don't exactly see eye to eye to begin with.

[TeePee4Prez]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/03/us/politics/03penn.html?ref=politics

Lending more credibility to Phil's anecdotes....

I was just about to post that. Thank you. 

I also want to thank you for being one of the few civil people here when it comes to hearing me out and you and I don't exactly see eye to eye to begin with.

I'm not challenging the credibility of the article either, however, I find conservative, older Democratic voters more vocal being surrounded by liberalism.  I think there will be an issue with whites primarily over 55 with voting for a black guy, but I think the Dems are generally fine amongst younger white Dems and with increased black tunrout, we should have the overwhelming margins to win statewide.  Conclusion- McCain will win a few Wards, BUT increased enthusiasm for Obama will drown the conservative Dems margin for McCain.   It sounds like more of a lack of support for either guy amongst these voters.

[12th Doctor]

I like that he is spending time here, if for no other reason than it is sure to boost turnout for down ticket.  His actually winning here is futile, but since I have friends who are deeply involved in the state races this year, including one who is on the ballot, I hope this puts them over the top.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well I guess we know now once and for all the credibility of anecdotal evidence.

[NOVA Green]

Well I guess we know now once and for all the credibility of anecdotal evidence.

Phil at the very beginning of the thread basically admitted that PA was lost and that McCain should invest elsewhere... anecdotal evidence is interesting, but I don't think Phil once claimed that PA would go for McCain based solely on anecdotal evidence. He did claim on another thread that Obama would have serious problems if he didn't carry Philadelphia County by 77+ points (which ended up happening), and the analysis of a few wards was based on primarily anecdotal evidence (although 2-3 key wards were correctly identified).

Ultimately Phil's anecdotal evidence played into the overall narrative in a way that benefited analysis and discussion of the Presidential Race in PA in a helpful manner.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well I guess we know now once and for all the credibility of anecdotal evidence.

Phil at the very beginning of the thread basically admitted that PA was lost and that McCain should invest elsewhere... anecdotal evidence is interesting, but I don't think Phil once claimed that PA would go for McCain based solely on anecdotal evidence.

He did prior to this thread. Until about the stock market crash he was arguing that his anecdotal evidence is what one should pay attention to and that Obama was only leading in polls because of the Bradley Effect or something like that.

[Ban my account ffs!]

If anything, Phil provided good analysis on how Republicans can win PA.  Obama certainly performed better in PA than many of us expected... so it's not really fair to lambaste Phil here.

[Keystone Phil]

Meanwhile, it's perfectly ok when BRTD and anyone else that agrees with him use anecdotal evidence.

He did prior to this thread. Until about the stock market crash he was arguing that his anecdotal evidence is what one should pay attention to and that Obama was only leading in polls because of the Bradley Effect or something like that.

And I believe that most of those people would have backed McCain if it wasn't for the crash. I stand by that.

As I said before, I don't really believe in the Bradley Effect anymore but there's a reason why I don't totally dismiss it. If it wasn't for that collapse, I think a lot of those people wouldn't have felt that voting for Obama was necessary for their financial well being. Therefore, I think a good amount of them would have passed on voting for a black man.

I'll let a few more constructive comments get in but if this is going to become a thread for mocking me, I'll just lock it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And I believe that most of those people would have backed McCain if it wasn't for the crash. I stand by that.

So did all of those life-long Democrats asking for McCain signs you kept talking about all just throw away their McCain signs when that happened?

[Keystone Phil]

And I believe that most of those people would have backed McCain if it wasn't for the crash. I stand by that.

So did all of those life-long Democrats asking for McCain signs you kept talking about all just throw away their McCain signs when that happened?

You were so good the day after the election. We were all so very foolish to think that that would last.

[Keystone Phil]

Unlocking to post a story from the Northeast Times - one of the the newspapers for Northeast Philly - to prove that I wasn't crazy for saying everything I said. It wasn't just "ancedotes," as you'll see. You'll find plenty of comments from Obama supporters and McCain supporters (some of these people I know personally) sharing my previously held opinions...

The ‘O’ Factor

By Tom Waring
Times Staff Writer

As a longtime ward leader, Frank Conaway has had to ask voters to support all kinds of candidates, both popular and unpopular.

Since 1985, Conaway has been Democratic leader of the 57th Ward — whose general boundaries are Roosevelt Boulevard to Frankford Avenue, and Grant Avenue to the Pennypack Creek.

In that time, voters have enthusiastically supported many of his candidates and been lukewarm about backing others.

The ward boss, for instance, had little success convincing voters to support former Mayors Wilson Goode and John Street.

"They let me know in no uncertain terms," he said.

Conaway had more luck this year pushing the Democratic presidential candidate, Barack Obama.
"I was out on the street, knocking on doors and getting feedback about Obama," he recalled. "He was doing quite well."

Still, Conaway was not convinced. He thought voters might still opt for Republican John McCain.
When the machines were opened on election night, he was pleasantly surprised. Final results showed Obama besting McCain in the ward by a count of 6,891-5,190.

Conaway cites two main reasons for the outcome. He believes voters wanted a Democrat to take over the White House as the economy soured under a Republican administration.

In addition, he points to Obama’s local campaign team, which consisted largely of young people from New York, some too young to vote. The mostly volunteer force was so committed that they paid their own bus and train fare to come to battleground Pennsylvania.

Once Conaway ordered a canvasser to take off a New York Mets T-shirt, the hunt for votes was on. The field operation identified voters who indicated they backed the Democrat and made sure they got to the polls on Nov. 4. Conaway said the campaign called his wife three times to make sure she cast her ballot.

When polls closed at 8 p.m., Conaway told the Obama staffers and volunteers to join 57th Ward Democrats at a victory party at Paddy Whacks. No thank you, he was told. They planned to make phone calls to voters in other states — even Alaska, home of Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin — where the polls had not closed.

"They had a helluva organization," Conaway said. "They impressed me to no end."
The numbers in the 57th Ward were repeated across the Northeast. Obama won all 14 wards by an unofficial margin of 104,870 to 58,790. Independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr each received a small percentage of the vote.

The Democrat’s margin helped him easily carry Philadelphia. The city total lifted him to victory in Pennsylvania. He easily won the Electoral College and will assume the presidency on Jan. 20.
The local figures should not be surprising. After all, Democrats hold a voter-registration advantage in all 14 wards and have won every local ward in presidential elections since 1992.
But plenty of Republicans and Democrats expected this year to be different. McCain has an Irish surname, was a war hero and developed a reputation as a moderate and a maverick during 22 years representing Arizona in the U.S. Senate.

Barack Hussein Obama was a freshman U.S. senator from Chicago who has ties to some radical figures and built the most liberal voting record in the Senate, according to the National Journal.
So, why did a seemingly conservative Northeast Philadelphia embrace Obama?

"The reason was the economy, stupid," said veteran Democratic ward leader Mike McAleer, borrowing a line from President Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign strategists.

McAleer, Democratic leader of Parkwood-based Ward 66-B, has been around long enough to know that Alabama Gov. George Wallace, a onetime segregationist, did well in the ward when he ran for president 40 years ago.

In early fall, McAleer sensed that what he calls the "Dunkin’ Donuts crowd" was siding with McCain based, in part, on race. McCain, of course, is white. Obama is biracial, with a white mom and a black dad. Then, McAleer said, the economy went "into the toilet" and voters blamed President George W. Bush.

"The color factor went out of the picture," he said.

Obama racked up at least 77 percent of the vote in the 23rd, 35th, 53rd, 54th and 62nd wards in the Lower Northeast, wards that have a surging number of minority residents. His smallest share of the vote locally was 52 percent in the overwhelmingly white, Fox Chase-based 63rd Ward.

McAleer remembers Republican President Richard Nixon crushing George McGovern in 1972 thanks to what Nixon called votes from the "silent majority."

"The silent majority spoke in this election," McAleer said.

While Obama’s victory locally was pretty overwhelming, it was generally silent.

McCain, who had a local campaign office at 3506 Cottman Ave., appeared to have at least three times as many lawn signs as Obama.

"Lawn signs were flying out of that office like I’ve never seen," said Joe DeFelice, director of McCain’s Philadelphia campaign, adding that even some union members and Democratic committee people were requesting them.

DeFelice, a lawyer from Mayfair who is active with the neighborhood civic and business associations, expected McCain to win at least a few wards in the Northeast. His only victory in the city came in South Philadelphia’s 26th Ward.

While there were perhaps 10,000 McCain signs on Northeast lawns and residents taking part in phone-bank operations, the votes were not there on Election Day.

"A lot of Obama voters didn’t wear their vote on their sleeves," DeFelice said.

Looking back, DeFelice thinks Obama benefited from the weak economy, the unpopularity of Bush and a friendly news media. Those factors were too much for McCain to overcome even in some wards that have voted for GOP candidates for other offices.

"We did pretty well for a Republican presidential candidate," he said.

State Rep. John Perzel (R-172nd dist.) was battered in campaign literature mailed to voters. The ads linked him to lobbyist-paid trips to Las Vegas, London and Paris.

The mailings did not work. Perzel crushed Democratic challenger Rich Costello with 66 percent of the vote.

Perzel did not like the mailers, but he said they could have been worse. Costello could have pictured him with Bush.

Expecting a tough race against Costello, Perzel went door-to-door in his district. The initial reaction was favorable to McCain, with Obama proving to be divisive. But when the economy became the focus in late September, voters started venting about Bush as they saw their pension, savings and 401k accounts dipping.

"That scared people. It got personal, and they wanted a change," said Perzel, who nonetheless was surprised by Obama’s sweep of Northeast wards.

Stephen Medvec, a professor of political science at Holy Family University, stood in a long line on Election Day at Delaire Landing, a gated community in East Torresdale. He was surprised at the chatter among fellow 65th Ward voters.

"They were champing at the bit," he said. "They couldn’t wait to vote for Barack Obama."
Many working-class Northeast voters, even Democrats, often vote for Republicans based on social issues such as abortion, in Medvec’s view.

[Keystone Phil]

This year, he believes, issues like abortion and even the war in Iraq weren’t determining factors.
"The issue of the economy trumped all others," he said. "That was the final straw for many voters."
Medvec thinks a lot of local voters liked Joe Biden, Obama’s vice presidential running mate. Biden, a senator from Delaware, was born in the blue-collar town of Scranton, Pa.

The professor looked back to Deval Patrick’s election as Massachusetts governor in 2006 and Michael Nutter’s victory in the 2007 Philadelphia mayoral race as harbingers of Obama’s success.

Like Patrick and Nutter, Obama is an Ivy League-educated black man who did well with white voters.
Still, some of Obama’s votes came from whites who wouldn’t tell even their family members they were backing him.

"We saw a reverse Bradley Effect," Medvec said.

The Bradley Effect, discredited by many analysts, is a term used to describe how black candidates sometimes do worse on Election Day than in pre-election polls.

The theory was coined after black Democrat Tom Bradley lost the 1982 California governor’s race to white Republican George Deukmejian, despite leading in polls. Some Bradley supporters contended afterward that many white voters told pollsters they were for Bradley because they did not want to be perceived as racists. In the end, they voted for Deukmejian.

State Rep.-elect Brendan Boyle, a Democrat, took a poll in late May that showed him leading his 170th Legislative District race by 24 points, but Obama trailing McCain by 16 points.

"People would say, ‘I’m definitely supporting you, but Obama, I’m not sure,’" he said.

The candidate, who knocked on doors most of the year, said some homeowners had Boyle and McCain signs on their lawns.

The anti-Obama comments he heard started to lessen in the summer and mostly ended when the economy faltered in September. Obama ultimately received 54 percent of the vote in the 170th district.
"I think the economic crisis is absolutely why Obama took a firm lead nationally and in our district," Boyle said.

Mike Driscoll, a 65th Ward Democratic committeeman and co-owner of Finnigan’s Wake, became Obama’s Northeast coordinator in mid-July. At the time, he was skeptical whether the candidate — who was crushed in the primary by Hillary Clinton — would resonate in the Northeast.

Driscoll, who ran for an at-large City Council seat in 2003, credits Obama with giving a strong speech at the Democratic National Convention. He believes choosing Biden as his vice president was a plus.
"Little by little, you could see people starting to trust him," he said.

The local Obama field organization worked well with the party infrastructure. They developed a list of every division in the Northeast, identifying those who were undecided, leaning to Obama and definitely in his camp.

Early on Election Day, union members put voting reminders on doorknobs of supporters. Volunteers and campaign staffers followed up with phone calls and visits.

Driscoll received some good news from Bob Dellavella, Democratic leader of the 55th Ward, just five minutes after the polls closed. The 55th, based in West Mayfair, was one the McCain folks were counting on to win.

"He called me at 8:05 with results from his division," said Driscoll, adding that the division went narrowly for Obama. "I said, ‘Barack Obama is the next president of the United States.’ "

••
Reporter Tom Waring can be reached at 215-354-3034 or twaring@phillynews.com

[Alcon]

Unlocking to post a story from the Northeast Times - one of the the newspapers for Northeast Philly - to prove that I wasn't crazy for saying everything I said. It wasn't just "ancedotes," as you'll see. You'll find plenty of comments...

Not to be a pedantic jerk, but...

[ucscgaldamez]

So...unlock it for your benefit...lock it for people to opine on how wrong they think you were.

[Keystone Phil]

So...unlock it for your benefit...lock it for people to opine on how wrong they think you were.

No, I lock it when people decide to mock me. I'm more than willing to have a civil conversation about this stuff. Too many people here decided to make a mockery of what I was saying.

[Lief 🗽]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Haha, remember when JJ said that Obama was going to lose because his organization was terrible and all his volunteers were from outside of the area?