2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[NOVA Green]

Many of y'all appear to be forgetting the concept of the "Red Mirage".

PA, WI, and MI are the exact reverse of that, where once again DEM Cities in Swing States in the Midwest are the last to turn out the vote.

Keep Calm, don't panic, fundamental numbers look good in all three States (Plus we got AZ and NE-02 and possibly GA & NC as backups).

Work Swing Shift West Coast, so nowhere close to crash yet tonight.

Is NC not already gone?

Is it?

Says who?

Trump only up 77k by NYT numbers and plenty of votes outstanding (Most likely heavily DEM).

Not to nitpick my friend, but I'm highly curious. What's the latest word on what votes are out there in NC? Numbers? Sources? Presumably all mail in ballots

Well we can start with the map of NC...



Naturally not to difficult to reverse engineer and see where the remaining ballots are outstanding.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

[NOVA Green]

Many of y'all appear to be forgetting the concept of the "Red Mirage".

PA, WI, and MI are the exact reverse of that, where once again DEM Cities in Swing States in the Midwest are the last to turn out the vote.

Keep Calm, don't panic, fundamental numbers look good in all three States (Plus we got AZ and NE-02 and possibly GA & NC as backups).

Work Swing Shift West Coast, so nowhere close to crash yet tonight.

Is NC not already gone?

Is it?

Says who?

Trump only up 77k by NYT numbers and plenty of votes outstanding (Most likely heavily DEM).

Not to nitpick my friend, but I'm highly curious. What's the latest word on what votes are out there in NC? Numbers? Sources? Presumably all mail in ballots

Well we can start with the map of NC...

Snippy-Snip!

Naturally not to difficult to reverse engineer and see where the remaining ballots are outstanding.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

Hey NOVA: how were things in Oregon? Any surprises?

Not yet--- DEMS swept all Statewide Elections by large margins,

Haven't delved down too much into the State House & SEN races yet.

OR basically just legalized Shrooms and decriminalized personal possession of small quantities of "hard drugs" and instead of prison / jail "catch and release" policies mandatory funding for substance abuse treatment.

Haven't seen any Election Related Gun Play going down yet in my Republican part of OR, so hopefully the "Caravan of Fools" will step down if Biden can get it over the Finish line Tomorrow...

[NOVA Green]

Trump barely won Oklahoma County, 49.2%-48.1%.


So close to breaking the GOP all-county sweep that they have done since 2004. I think by 2024 we can finally break it.

If the Democratic nominee manages to win in 2024, Democrats could break the all-county sweeps in both Oklahoma and West Virginia. Monongalia County was within 2 points.

Has anyone ever compiled out (major) college town counties vote?  Obviously, the vast majority would go for Democrats, but it would be interesting to see the ones that don't.  (Depending on your definition of "major," I know Bloomington, IL's McLean County was usually one.)

I did some work on this for the 2016 Election, and might well end up doing something similar once we get 2020 precinct results.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5837408#msg5837408

[NOVA Green]

Can Biden really break 80% in Multnomah?

Possibly... still getting caught up with updates after having slept in following covering the swing / grave shift on Atlas / Talk Election.   

[NOVA Green]

Did the military vote swing D?
The margins in VA Beach, El Paso County, and Bell County are more Dem leaning than 2016.

IDK yet for 2020... but here is a thread that I created about the 2016 PRES Election and Veteran / Military Votes...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=268535.msg5737497#msg5737497

[NOVA Green]

NOVA GREEN checking in...

I covered the Swing / Grave shift coverage last Night, after feeling like WI + MI + AZ + NE-02 would take us over the line, so felt well crashing and felt even better when I stumbled back to Atlas sometime around 1:30 PM PDT.

There were over (100) Atlas Pages on Atlas, and although it took me about 6 Hours to read them all, I did it just like a counting vote marathon.

Overall Biden looking well... Really hard to see NV flipping, and AZ looks pretty solid bcs of the massive swings amongst Anglo in Maricopa, plus Pima County holding up solid.

Not quite ready to stick the Turkey into the outdoor Thanksgiving Giant Grease Grill Yet, but feeling still comfortable about the (270) EV win...

At this point PA, NC, and GA are likely the icing on the cake...

[NOVA Green]

So got off work a little early, check into Atlas and had to go through about (70) additional pages since I last checked in, much of which was relatively irrelevant.

Am I the only one who has read all (519) pages of this thread since I don't have anyone on ignore?

So basically, we're either waiting for Biden to take the lead in GA Tonight in Clayton County, or if not than after Gwinnett reports tomorrow Morning, but even so likely not called by networks bcs of Provisionals and Overseas Ballots (Plus Recount Zone).

PA might well see Biden take a lead Tonight from a combination of Philly updates every two hours (are they counting all Night?) or miscellaneous counties reporting updates?

Allegheny likely won't be the County to push Biden over the top, bcs counting won't be restarted until Tomorrow.

Is that a correct summary of the situation now?

[NOVA Green]

So back on topic--- anyone want to provide an update about how many outstanding votes there are by County in PA, and which places are continuing to count / report Tonight / through the early Morning?

[NOVA Green]

CNN: Biden just picked up (96) votes in GA....

Any idea where Atlas Hive?

[NOVA Green]

Newsflash: Trump is losing every uncalled state besides Alaska.

You're forgetting NC, right?

NC is potentially doable for Biden (although perhaps a bit of a stretch).

There are over 2x votes outstanding compared to the size of the Trump lead....

Most of these are in the heavily DEM strongholds so a 2:1 Biden lead could do it (Even w/o late arriving ballot anticipated lawsuits).

Figure you already know that being a DEM from NC, but figured I would put it out there for those who haven't been tracking, and I had a few people ask me why I didn't consider NC to be a lock for Trump in the early Morning hours after Election Night.   

[NOVA Green]

Newsflash: Trump is losing every uncalled state besides Alaska.

You're forgetting NC, right?

NC is potentially doable for Biden (although perhaps a bit of a stretch).

There are over 2x votes outstanding compared to the size of the Trump lead....

Most of these are in the heavily DEM strongholds so a 2:1 Biden lead could do it (Even w/o late arriving ballot anticipated lawsuits).

Figure you already know that being a DEM from NC, but figured I would put it out there for those who haven't been tracking, and I had a few people ask me why I didn't consider NC to be a lock for Trump in the early Morning hours after Election Night.   

On Nytimes, most of the blue areas only 90% counting, instead of 99% just wondering whats that about

Wake, Orange, and Mecklenburg say hello...

[NOVA Green]

Newsflash: Trump is losing every uncalled state besides Alaska.

You're forgetting NC, right?

NC is potentially doable for Biden (although perhaps a bit of a stretch).

There are over 2x votes outstanding compared to the size of the Trump lead....

Most of these are in the heavily DEM strongholds so a 2:1 Biden lead could do it (Even w/o late arriving ballot anticipated lawsuits).

Figure you already know that being a DEM from NC, but figured I would put it out there for those who haven't been tracking, and I had a few people ask me why I didn't consider NC to be a lock for Trump in the early Morning hours after Election Night.   

On Nytimes, most of the blue areas only 90% counting, instead of 99% just wondering whats that about

Wake, Orange, and Mecklenburg say hello...

does that include mailins, ed votes or early in person? I have no idea what to make of it

Thought it was something like both 60-70k Mail in Ballots and 60-70 Provisionals (I'm assuming the Former includes Military / Overseas Ballots).

Big problem with NC is provisional ballots may outnumber mail-in ballots in the remaining votes to count, and provisionals will probably be favorable for Trump since they're generally cast in-person and Trump won provisionals in the state narrowly in 2016.

n1240---- Can we necessarily assume that Provo Ballots will lean Trump in 2020 however, especially if DEM voters chose to not return their absentees and vote same day person instead?

Not disagreeing, but voting patterns in '16 and '20 might have shifted with COVID related concerns... so ?

[NOVA Green]

18K IN PA

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324598021204692992

Updates on the County reporting from any of our Atlas Swing / Grave Shift members closely tracking the results?

Remember the more crap we keep out of the way, the easier it will be for our Fellow Forum Community members to catch up in the morning....

I read Atlas just like my work emails, from earliest to latest....

[NOVA Green]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Given that, do we know how many ballots are still out there?

There's approx 9k of early votes left in GA plus provisionals and any late arriving mail. Vast majority is in Gwinett, which has gone home for the night, and Clayton which said they are trying to finish.

But late arriving mail won't count in GA, right?

Clayton appears to be doing the drip... drip... drip...

Many of those workers have already banked OT thus far, and more than happy to use their PTO to take the day off Tomorrow to get it all counted....

Still Clayton is not yet done counting yet Tonight.... (At least what appears to currently be the case)

[NOVA Green]

I can’t post links yet but look up “2020 Election Sting Operation Donald Trump Blockchain Security Steve Pieczenik Interview” on Youtube. 🤔

Welcome to the Forum Ununpentium....

No idea what your post is about, and certainly is not at the top of my watch list right now...

But any opinions regarding about current election results from Louisiana and interesting shifts and trends in various parts of your State?

I believe within the past 24 Hours there were various posters looking at some of the swings towards Trump and towards Biden in certain parts of the State.

What's your opinion about the apparent shifts and swings in LA now that most of the votes are finally getting close to being counted by region?

Always good to see new posters from States that might be a bit underrepresented on Atlas / Talk Election....

[NOVA Green]

This is pretty obscure and frankly a bit irrelevant now, but I'm surprised that Sarpy County, which is the other county that comprises NE-02, has swung quite massively towards Biden. Its leftward shift is actually greater even than Douglas county.

IMHO that is actually not that surprising, since actually it did not swing that heavily DEM from '12 to '16 in significant numbers, even in the wealthiest precincts / communities.

Apparently I can no longer directly quote my own comments from the thread, but here it is:

"Pulled a few numbers from the wealthiest places in Nebraska...

1.) Waverly- (Lancaster County) MHI $77.7k-  Pop 3.4k

2012: (36 D- 62 R)        +26 R
2016: (25 D- 68 R)        +43 R     (+17% Rep Swing)

*** Note that Lancaster does not break down absentee ballots by Precinct for either '12 nor '16, which was roughly 25% of the County vote. Also, note that in the County absentee ballots were heavily Dem in both elections, so we have a potential significant distortion with any precinct level results here.

2.) Gretna-   (Sarpy County)--- MHI $73.7k-  Pop 5.1k

Precincts 59 & 60

2012: (32 D- 66 R)      +34 R
2016: (29 D- 62 R)      +33 R   (+1% D Swing)

3.) Papillion- (Sarpy County)--- MHI $ 72.4k- Pop 20.2k

Precincts 36,38,39,40, & 42).... There appears to be a few split precincts not included, but had to work with the best data available.

2012: (36 D- 62 R)       +26 R
2016: (33 D- 57 R)       +24 R   (+2% D Swing)

4.) Yankee Hill- (Lancaster County)- MHI $93.6- Pop 730

2012: (37 D- 62 R)        +25 R
2016: (32 D- 61 R)        +29 R   (+4% R Swing)

So again, insert caveat about absentee votes in Lancaster County....

Interestingly enough Nebraska appears to be one of the few states in the Country thus far where there does not appear to have been a swing towards Clinton of upper-income voters, based upon this limited data selection...

Some of this might be the imbalance inherent in solely looking at MHI by cities/places.... so for example it could well be that there are relatively wealthy precincts in Omaha and Lincoln for example where there were significant swings towards the Democratic Party in '16.... I mean even looking at uninc areas in West Houston Texas, this phenomenon was evident.

To what extent is there a "selection bias" and differences in relatively affluent voting patterns in places like Omaha and Lincoln where real estate is relatively cheap between those that would rather live in Exurban settings versus in nice leafy older neighborhoods within a "City"?"

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5715360#msg5715360

[NOVA Green]

Regarding Arizona---

Several posters earlier in the Night have been posting updates and % of vote returned by CD within Maricopa County AZ.

I did a bit of work on AZ CD-08 SE back in the days...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287204.msg6135267#msg6135267

So here's a bit of compare /contrast that I did from the Cities of Maricopa County from '12 > '16



Make of that what you will, but suspect that Maricopa County outstanding ballots will flip back and increase Biden numbers once we start getting counted the Absentees and Provisionals fully....

[NOVA Green]

The Donald went down to Georgia

He was looking for an election to steal

He was in a bind because he was way behind

He was willing to make a deal

When he came across this old man sawin' on a fiddle and playin' it hot

And the Donald jumped upon a hickory stump and said "Boy, let me tell you what."

"I guess you didn't know it, but I'm a fiddle player, too

And if you'd care to take a dare I'll make a bet with you

Now you play a pretty good fiddle, boy, but give the Donald his due

I'll bet a fiddle of gold against your vote 'cause I think I'm better than you."

The man said, "My name's Jimmy, and it might be a sin

But I'll take your bet, and you're gonna regret, 'cause I'm the best there's ever been."

Sigh...if you can't beat them join them.   

Here are a few musical soundtracks from Georgia artists over the days.... while random folks running Swing / Grave shift opinionate....

Some wax on trax for anyone interested...

[NOVA Green]

463?

Gahhhhh.

Can't they just flip it already?

Longest strip tease ever.

Seen drag shows that have taken longer over my decades...  even as a straight boy but plenty of familiarity with the joints...

[NOVA Green]

You know something exciting is happening when even people who don't care one bit about politics are posting Insta stories re: Georgia.

You woke PQG (Apologies for the familiar tone), but know you currently live out in my Grandparents State of PA, where Family History all supported the Union against the Southern Slaver Traitor States (Ancestral Republicans) (Unfortunately deceased both having been born back in the 1910s a decade or so back.   ), but yeah a lot of Americans move around over the years and decades, as well as family members.

Meanwhile our son-in-law and daughter are going crazy on social media, since he is from GA (Hall County) and basically all three sons from that side of the family moved to Portland, Oregon from Metro Atlanta and now are hardcore Democrats (Although unfortunately more like "Moderate DEMs" and not "Socialist DEMs" (GRGH).   

[NOVA Green]

463?

Gahhhhh.

Can't they just flip it already?

Longest strip tease ever.

Seen drag shows that have taken longer over my decades...  even as a straight boy but plenty of familiarity with the joints...

I was the producer/promoter of a major drag contest for ten years. Final night of our contests went over four hours some years.

Oh, and one year, when I was leaving nationals in Kentucky, the sun came up as I got in my car...

Actually got a few photos of me in drag from back in college in Ohio in the Early / Mid '90s down in Subvert City , where we had a massive party with the Queens competing from Dayton, Cinci, Columbus, and even down from places like Toledo....

NO ATLAS... WILL NOT POST PHOTOS OF NOVA GREEN IN DRAG.... (Don't do that on social media, especially with Neo-Nazis and Fascists trying to out me).

Punk Rock scene in the '80s/'90s was a "Safe Space" in most parts of the Community.

PM me if you wanna talk about the politics and demos from activists from Queer Nation and ACT-UP back in the dayz.

A bit OT slightly, but this is Atlas, so last time I checked we are 90%+ in solidarity with LGBTQ+ Equality.   

One of the questions in my mind is also how did LGBTQ+ voters in the 2020 PRES Election?

[NOVA Green]

So anybody want to listen to a few songs about Georgia, here are a few songs which I posted a few hours ago on this very thread...

Mix of musical styles and anyone can add their grove and wax on tracks to this... but here was an early playlist from GA, that naturally neglects many former and historical musical styles from what is a massive growing State, and changing day by day just like Texas, and really we are talking about "New South Circa 2020"

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/AGrumpyKoala/status/1324657587917221889

Would any of these legal shenanigans work?

Maybe, but Trump can't hold PA unless they stop the count literally now.

It's okay... PA is "Union Country", both in the Civil War and New Deal Era...

Gettysburg was only an Hour so down the road from from my Grandparents place in PA, and yes PA PUBs fought in the wars, including not only the Civil War but WW II as well.

The fact the Trump is losing "Traditional PUB voters" in PA is not a good sign, despite gaining some voters for those who have been screwed over by Global Economic Trade policies, where as we all well know MNCs are controlled by Wall Street, and our "Small" Factory Towns are simply collatoral damage as part of a Global Race to the Bottom.

Sorry Atlas--- tip and pop and corks for a Biden win, and we will do the United Front, but at some point we want something back for helping to pass the message on to the younger comrades, children, etc....

[NOVA Green]

Joe Scarborough on MSNBC is practically creaming his shorts regarding Biden's win in GA, and likely in PA, and what that means for the future of the Republican Party that continue to "Tie themselves to the future of Donald Trump"...

Loved Scarborough back when he was an outspoken Republican opponent against the War in Iraq under Bush Jr, and in my mind he his still an FF regardless of whatever the rest of y'all DEM avatars say.

[NOVA Green]

Multnomah County Oregon continues it's trajectory in 2020, with what appears to be the highest number of votes ever cast, as well as what is likely the highest % of DEM votes ever cast for PRES, although I don't have my charts immediately handy on that one.

79.3% Biden vs 17.9% Trump   (+61.4% D) vs 

2012: 73.3% HRC and 17.0% Trump  (+56.3% D)

+5.1% D Swing  '16 > '20

(2008 was 76.7% Obama vs 20.6% McCain for reference).

Without delving too deeply into the math at this point, it does appear that 3rd Party voting did much more heavily impact HRC here than it did Trump.

There does not appear to have been an Anti-Biden backlash in Multnomah County, despite the Months of frequent (for Months almost daily) clashes between police, Federal Agents, & demonstrators since the death of George Floyd.

It should also be noted that there was a significant increase in "new voters" in Multnomah County, both likely as a result of net migration into the County, innate population growth (voters coming of age), as well as more voters getting drawn into the Eligible Voter pool and sent "unsolicited ballots" as a direct result of AVR through the State DMV.

Also, it looks as those Trump only won (4) precincts within the County.

4901, 4905, 5105, and 5203....

Three of those were Unincorporated areas of East County, and one was a precinct in Troutdale.

Not sure how much results will change before final results are certified, but I'm not thinking there is much out there other than a few minor changes...

Still, I am holding off on running the precinct numbers for now by place within Multnomah County looking for swings, but if someone else wants to take a peak while we wait for election result updates Tomorrow...