New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT) (user search)
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Author Topic: New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)  (Read 51914 times)
NOVA Green
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« on: February 08, 2020, 07:23:22 PM »

One thing that I'm wondering is what the overall results will be by regions within NH...

We have limited data to predict 2020 DEM PRIM results, but Sanders was on the ballot in 2016, so at least that gives us something to work with...

The largest Counties in terms of DEM electorate share were Sanders weakest Counties in 2016.

Hillsborough County--- 69k Votes (28% of Vote Share) + 16% Sanders
Rockingham County--- 55k Votes (22% of Vote Share)  + 15% Sanders
Merrimack County---    31k Votes (13% of Vote Share)  + 17% Sanders

Collectively these three Counties accounted for almost 2/3rd of the 2016 DEM PRIM electorate.

We can assume that in 2020 their vote share will be at least as much, and quite possibly more depending upon indies that voted in the Pub primary in '16 decide to cross over and vote in a more active DEM primary in 2020.

If we look at the recent polling from NH with Bernie looking like having maybe a 5% lead over Pete, it is entirely plausible that part of this is coming from these counties of SE NH, where Pete might well be leading....

It should also be noted that Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties have the highest MHI within NH at $ 73k /Yr in the former and $82k/Yr in the latter. These two Counties also have the highest rate of Educational attainment with 23% having a Bachelors + in Hillsborough and  25% in Rockingham.

Bernie won in a landslide in the (4) Counties that directly border VT, (54k votes, 22% of the vote share) winning by +36% Bernie.

These are the poorest places in NH with 3/4 Counties with an MHI of ~$58k/Yr, and Coos County only $45k/yr with a population that is 50% French and French-Canadian....

Now, these Counties skew much heavily older 65+ than other parts of NH, although Carroll County might be an exception with something like 34% of the Pop 60+ Yrs.

It is entirely plausible that Biden might be eating into Bernie's numbers a bit here among Senior Voters, Pete grabbing some as well, and Warren grabbing some votes from some of the heavily College educated towns / townships that are scattered around in the Social Landscape....

Still, my current running assumption is that Bernie still has a pretty solid lead in those (4) Counties, and likely a decent lead in the other (3) Counties which collectively held  ~37% of the NH vote share  in '16.

Anybody else ideas about which candidates will perform better/worse in various parts of NH???
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2020, 07:36:08 PM »


Doubtful... it's not like we are awaiting results from some small remote mining community in Australia back in the '40s....

https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/hamersley/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilbara_Iron

After all we count our election results extremely quickly efficiently and accurately every time in America. Wink



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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2020, 09:33:13 PM »

So let's take slightly deeper dive into the Democratic "Breadbasket" of NH....

Let's start with the largest Place in the largest County:

Hillsborough County:

Manchester City--- (7.4% of '16 NH DEM PRIM Vote and 26.4% of the County Vote Share.)

18k Votes (55-41 Sanders-Clinton)    +14% Sanders

Population of the City is 110k  (8.3% of NH State Pop)....

MHI is only $54.9k / Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 80% "White" , 8% Latino, 4% Black, and 4% Asian.

Age: Skews fairly young with roughly 20% of the Pop <18, and a huge bulge in the the Millennial pocket with over 27% of the Pop 18-35 Yrs.

Ancestry: Tends to skew pretty heavily non-WASP, so likely roughly 60% Catholic?

28% French / French-Canadian
19% Irish
9%   Italian
4%   Polish

Education: (25+ Yrs)

13% no HS Degree
50% HS Degree
37% Greater than HS Degree (Including Associate Degrees)

Occupations: Administration, Sales, and Production, and Food Service exceed in the top Five Categories of workers in NH, with Mgmt being well below Statewide numbers...

Interestingly enough although overall the Manchester Area has a huge number of workers in the Health Care Sector, it still slightly below the Statewide average with 14% of workers in that industry, while meanwhile the 2nd largest industry Retail is basically tied. Mfg is actually significantly below the statewide average with only 11.5% working vs a 14% statewide average.

So apparently HRC did really well among non WASP Catholic Ethnic Ancestral Voters here in '16.

What will Manchester City look like in 2020 in a split field?

Looks on the surface to me like a City where Bernie, Pete, & Joe will likely all do well....

Nashua City: (6.1% of '16 NH DEM PRIM Vote and 21.6% of the County Vote Share.)

15k Votes (53% Sanders- 44% Clinton)    +8% Bernie

Pop of the City is 87k (6.6% of the NH Pop).

MHI= $68.9k/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 75% "White" , 12% Latino, 3% Black, and 7% Asian.

Age: 20% <18 Yrs, 24% 18-35 Yrs.

Ancestry: 22% French & French-Canadian, 20% Irish, 10% Italian, 4% Polish

Education: 10% no HS Degree, 46% HS Degree, 44% > than HS Degree

Occupations: Administration (15%) exceeds statewide avgs and Sales & Mgmt are slightly below, Food Service Higher, but now you got a huge 7% in Computers & Math....

Industries: 16% Mfg (Well beyond the statewide avg), Health Care is a bit below, retail is close to statewide avg, but 9% Professional is way beyond statewide....

So, what does this mean for the DEM Primary???

Nashua City looks like a place that might well be a "Cookie-Cutter" Pete City.... (At least looking at Pete's results from IA). Still wouldn't be surprised to see Warren get a bit of a piece of the pie here as well, but wouldn't be surprised to see Bernie possibly placing 3rd in the joint....

I'll leave the small towns of 2-3k DEM voters in '16 for the next post.... but food for thought as we lead up to which candidates might do well where in NH....


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2020, 09:44:13 PM »


Doubtful... it's not like we are awaiting results from some small remote mining community in Australia back in the '40s....

https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/hamersley/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilbara_Iron

After all we count our election results extremely quickly efficiently and accurately every time in America. Wink

Lulz NOVA. Part of Western Australian gold mining history involves Herbert Hoover as a younger man before he became the 31st US President.

http://www.gwalia.org.au/hoover-house/history/

Please resume NH thread to 137 pages.



Hey Meclazine--- was just takin' a piss and having a spot of fun Mate, so believe you appreciate (I think) my joke....

According to some of my Australian friends on a few internet Forums, there's still a chance we might get a missing episode or two of B&W Doctor Who from these remote Pit mines well outside of Perth...

Carry on folks nothing to see here, despite me having some family history on my Fathers Grandmothers side when it comes to being Irish-Welsh Slate Miners in NH after fleeing the oppression from the "Old Country"....

Meanwhile, any ideas about where in NH the various DEM candidates may or may not perform strongly or weakly?



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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2020, 07:41:46 PM »

So on Page 2, I posted a little bit about the two largest cities in Hillsborough County (Nashua & Manchester)...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=358035.msg7169871#msg7169871

Here are next three largest DEM Vote centers in Hillsborough County.

#3: Merrimack Town--- (1.6% of NH 2016 DEM PRIM Vote Share and 7.4 % of '16 DEM Primary County Vote Share)----   

4k Votes--- 57-42 Sanders-Clinton   +15% Sanders

MHI= $93.8k/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 93% White, 3% Latino, 2% Asian

Age: skews a bit older: Almost 50% of the population is aged 35-64, which is quite a bit higher than the statewide average.

Ancestry: 24% French / French-Canadian, 23% Irish, 11% Italian, 5% Polish

Education: Much more educated than the NH as a whole 54% with > HS Degree

Occupations: Skew heavily White Collar (Computers & Math 8% (!), Mgmt 12%, Business 7%,

Industry: Mfg & Retail are about State average, Health Care is significantly below, Professional Occupations/ Finance / Education above Statewide avg...

Interestingly enough Bernie had a higher level of support in 2016 than in Manchester or Nashua, despite having a significantly higher income level and educational level, which typically tended to correlate more with HRC in NH in '16.

My gut tells me this is exactly the type of place where Warren needs to deal well, and Pete is likely a contender as well.

#4: Hudson Town (1.4% of 2016 NH DEM PRIM Vote & 6.6% of 2016 DEM PRIM County Vote Share).

3.5k Votes---- (55-41 Sanders-Clinton)    +14% Sanders

MHI-  $88.9k/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 93% White, 3% Latino, 3% Asian

Age: Tends to skew a bit older with the bulge being 35-55 Yrs, 55-64 Yrs below State avg, 65+ slightly above state avg.

Ancestry: 29% French / French-Canadian, 21% Irish, 12% Italian, 4% Polish

Education: 46% > HS Diploma (So slightly above Statewide avg).

Occupations: Administrative, Sales, Education above Statewide avg and mgmt slightly below along with mfg.

Industry: MFG is above statewide at 15%, Health Care avg, Retail slightly below, Education a tick above.

Overall, I have a similar assessment of Hudson Town as I do of Merrimack Town.

#5  Bedford Town: (1.4% of 2016 NH DEM PRIM Vote & 6.3% of 2016 DEM PRIM County Vote Share).

3.4k Votes   (49% Sanders -50% Clinton)    +1% Clinton

MHI: $126k/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 93% White, 3% Asian, 2% Latino, 1% Black

Age: The Demographic bulge is towards the 40-64 Yrs Range compared to Statewide.

Ancestry: 22% Irish, 20% French / French-Canadian, 12% Italian, 5% Polish

Education: 68% Degree > HS

Occupations: 20% Mgmt (!!!), 16% Sales, 8% Health Care, 7% Business.... These are all well above statewide averages.

Industries: Professional and Education way above statewide avg, finance & insurace 2x statewide avg (!!!), MFG and Retail significantly below statewide avg....

So basically is high income suburb of Manchester, which did not vote for Bernie (the only place to do so in Hillsborough County in the 2016 DEM PRIM), certainly does not appear to be Bernie ground in the 2020 DEM PRIM. I guess the key question is how it breaks down in terms of Warren/Pete voters, but regardless I would imagine that Bernie is going to get clocked here on Tuesday....

Okay--- so now I've run the 2016 DEM PRIM numbers for the (5) largest DEM Jurisdictions within Hillsborough County which collectively account for 18% of the TOTAL NH DEM PRIM Vote Share in 2016 and 68% of the Hillsborough County Vote Share in 2016.

It is entirely possible these numbers will be larger in 2020, depending upon how many REG IND want to stick it to Trump (Where some polls have him winning only 80% of PUB PRIM voters) vs crossing lanes.

My initial thoughts upon review:

1.) Manchester City--- Biden/Bernie both perform well with Pete grabbing a decent chunk of change and Warren nipping at 4th...   (Likely not coincidental that Biden was in Town today).

2.) Nashua--- Looks to me like Pete will place in top, Warren 2nd, and Bernie & Biden fighting for 3rd. (Likely not coincidental that Pete was in Town today).

3.) Merrimack--- Pete & Liz should do well, with Bernie possibly placing 3rd.

4.) Hudson--- Thinking that Pete & Liz should do well, with Bernie possibly doing slightly better than in Merrimack.

5.) Bedford---- This has Pete Country written all over it. Warren again should place well. Would not be completely shocked to see Bernie place 4th.

Thoughts anyone???



















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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2020, 08:30:23 PM »

So... I could go through the rest of Hillsborough County, but let's just briefly run some basic numbers for the Eastern portion of the County where HRC performed well in '16:

Listed by TOTAL 2016 DEM PRIM Voters:

1.) Goffs Town-  3.0k Voters (+21% Sanders)
2.) Amherst- 2.4k Voters (+6% Sanders)
3.) Pelham-  1.9k Voters  (+15% Sanders)
4.) Hollis---  1.6k Voters  (+8% Sanders)
5.) Litchfield- 1,4k Voters (+19% Sanders)

So clearly there are certainly opportunities in places that are somewhat similar to the top five places within Hillsborough, and an additional 10.3k voters in 2016 (4.2% of '16 DEM PRIM Vote Share and    19% of County Vote Share).

Now what about the "Bernie Belt" in the Western portion of Hillsborough County where he was clocking from 61-72% of the '16 DEM PRIM vote???

Although theoretically these townships are small in terms of individual vote share collectively they add up to 12% of the County Vote Share....

Although Pete was camping in Iowa, and did much better than expected in some of the rurals, it was really his performance in metro Des Moines, combined with a relatively decent statewide spread which jacked his numbers up...

Key question for the NH Primaries, will be can Pete not only perform well in some of posh 'burbs of NH, but additionally do something similar in the rurals which he did in IA?

My assumption has been that Biden would be a dude more likely to play in these parts of NH in '16 Bernie Country, Warren not so much, and Pete might be able to take a handful...

Thoughts anybody???

 

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2020, 10:11:29 PM »


Although Pete was camping in Iowa, and did much better than expected in some of the rurals, it was really his performance in metro Des Moines, combined with a relatively decent statewide spread which jacked his numbers up...

Key question for the NH Primaries, will be can Pete not only perform well in some of posh 'burbs of NH, but additionally do something similar in the rurals which he did in IA?


This is a great observation. The predominant media narrative is to lump in urban and suburban, probably because most media people live/work in urban and suburban areas. However, Buttigieg and Bernie essentially tied in rural areas of IA while Pete outperformed Bernie significantly in suburbs and especially exurbs. Bernie's strength was smaller cities. I expect this pattern to hold everywhere outside the south.

This would seem to imply that Buttigieg can make a killing in the Boston exurbs of southeastern NH. However, I think it really comes down to whether Kobluchar can do OK since she is strong in the same areas. I'm unsure of Warren who might also be strong there, since its not clear who she will be drawing from there.


Thanks SInNYC....

You do make some solid observations, as well as interjecting a wild-card (Amy K.) who I did not mention in my previous summary of the largest DEM PRIM VOTE breadbasket in NH (Hillsborough County).

1.) Rurals will likely be key in determining the outcome of the 2020 NH DEM PRIM. If Bernie can deliver anything close to the same numbers in the (4) Counties bordering VT (As well as similar areas even in Hillsborough County), he will likely win this thing.

2.) Urban is limited in NH, simply because there is really only two large Cities (Manchester & Nashua)

3.) Suburban starts to stretch the map (Including a town which I mentioned--- (Bedford)

4.) Exurban--- Perhaps this includes some of the other Towns / Townships in NH referenced in Hillsborough County.

5.) Kobluchar is a wild-card in my mind, since it's hard to see where her base of support is within NH. Which candidates are her voters likely to consider in the event that they believe that Amy can't close the deal.... if so, then where do they go?

It's entirely plausible that in rural NH that Pete/Amy/Joe are all playing in the same lane to grab the HRC voters from '16.

How much of Bernie's margins does this munch up in the event that places where he won with 65% of the vote in '16 now turn into only a 45% vote number???

6.) Warren--- At least what we saw in IA was that she played well in the College Communities (Liz won Johnson County in PV!!!) as well as Middle and Upper-Middle Class communities within Metro Des Moines....

In IA, Liz performed best in parts of Iowa City where the Pop was 45+ yrs, indicating more of the Grad School & Professor Voters (Would expect to see that same pattern in NH in College Communities),

I would expect to see her numbers do better in places in SE NH and eat into some of the Sanders '16 PRIM vote share. Still looks like she might have to wrangle with Pete for some of these same voters....

7.) Biden--- Well it's difficult to see where exactly his base of support is within NH. I would imagine that he performs better in rurals, small towns, and working-class cities such as Manchester, but not performing spectacularly well.

Just my two cents added to your two cents, so I guess we have a collective Four Cents, while meanwhile opinions are like (fill in the blank)...  Smiley
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2020, 11:41:01 PM »

Okay--- already covered Hillsborough County and the largest DEM PRIM vote bank in NH...

Time to take a peak at the 2nd largest County when it comes to DEM PRIM numbers...

The largest Counties in terms of DEM electorate share were Sanders weakest Counties in 2016.

Hillsborough County--- 69k Votes (28% of Vote Share) + 16% Sanders
Rockingham County--- 55k Votes (22% of Vote Share)  + 15% Sanders
Merrimack County---    31k Votes (13% of Vote Share)  + 17% Sanders


Rockingham County....

MHI--- $ 82.4k/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 93% "White" , 2% Latino, 2% Asian, and 1% Black

Age: Skews pretty close to the Statewide avg... 18-24 Yrs a bit below (maybe kids in College elsewhere?).

Ancestry: 25% Irish, 22% French & French Canadians, 15% Italian (!!!), 5% Polish.

Education: (25+ Yrs): 50% HS+ Degree

Occupations: Significant MGMT skew, other than that looks close to statewide %.

Industries: MFG a few ticks above statewide, healthcare a couple points down, retail even, education a bit lower, professional a few % points above


Where are the votes at?

1.) Derry Town (1.9% of 2016 NH State PRIM Voters and 8.7% of County Vote Share).

4.8k Votes (60% Sanders- 38% Clinton)   +22% Sanders

MHI-- $61.0k/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 92% "White" , 3% Latino, 2% Asian, and 2% Black

Age: Pop bulge skews heavily 25-55 Yrs 

Ancestry: 27% Irish, 24% French & French Canadians, 17% Italian (!!!), 5% Polish.

Education: 37% > HS Degree

Occupations: Lower White Collar way exceeds (Adminstration, Sales).... Production, Food Service and Transportation much higher than State avgs...

Mgmt much lower, Education much lower,

Industries: Health Care matches state, retail exceeds state, mfg significantly exceeds state, construction way exceeds state.

Looking good for Sanders here.... solid performance among WWC DEM non-WASP voters, Def could see Biden over-performing here, with Pete taking a cut, but doesn't really look like Pete/Liz Country.

2.) Salem Town: (1.6% of 2016 NH STATE PRIM VOTERS, and 7.3% of County Vote Share).

4.0k Votes (52% Sander- 45% Clinton)     +7% Sanders

MHI--- $ 79.5/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 90% "White" , 6% Latino, 3% Asian.

Age: Skews pretty close to the Statewide avg but a pretty big bulge in the 20-34 yr category

Ancestry: 26% Irish, 21% French & French Canadians, 21% Italian (!!!), 5% Polish.

Education: (25+ Yrs): 43% HS+ Degree

Occupations: Administration skews way high (16%), mgmt & sales track statewide, construction and production much higher than state.

Industries: MFG ticks much higher at 16%, Retail quite bit higher, health care lower, construction way higher.

No idea how this town will vote in the 2020 Primaries, but would not be surprised to see Bernie do better than expected despite his '16 numbers. One could argue that Joe & Pete have some options here as well....

So to keep us entertained now we have at least a brief summary of the 16% of DEM 16 PRIM votes and what it may or may not mean come 2020....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2020, 10:54:37 PM »

Since there was discussion about the geographic breakdown of results earlier:




These numbers would normally suggest a tight race, except Bernie is getting 50% in the west and north, aka the Connecticut river towns. Very possible that if the race is close that Bernie loses the first via racking up the score in the second.

These are entirely valid points, and this poll actually makes more sense geographically than the other recent poll which showed Bernie performing better in CD-01 than CD-02....

Let's look at results from a few of these Counties from the '16 Election Results and the '20 Poll number---

Hillsborough County--- 2016 DEM Primary Results

2016: 57% Sanders- 41% Clinton    (+16% Sanders)

Hillsborough County--- Boston Globe Poll
Buttigieg: 19 %
Warren: 16   %
Sanders: 15  %
Biden: 15     %
Klobuchar: 15  %
Other: 10%


Now granted it's only a small sample size for a poll of a County this large, but it appears to point to a roughly five person tie, with a slight edge to Pete....

There might well be some last minute tactical adjustments as voters might pick a 2nd string whom they also like, if they feel like their preferred candidate won't place.



So, as I surmised a few pages back the "lanes" aren't nearly as clear as they might seem to be. It's pretty obvious that not only are all of the '16 HRC voters spread throughout various other candidates (even possibly some for Bernie), and that many of the Bernie '16 voters are backing other candidates....

Now if we can assume that Bernie's best places in Hillsborough County will be the areas that he performed best in back in '16, West and North County smaller towns and rurals, this would appear to support my initial thoughts a few pages back on this thread.

Manchester--- Largest vote bank Bernie probably places within the top 2.
Nashua--- Pete/Warren
Bedford Town--- Heavily Pete/Warren
Merrimack Town- Pete/Warren
Hudson Town- Pete/Warren
GoffsTown- Bernie 1st
Amherst--- Heavily Pete/Warren
Hollis---Heavily Pete/Warren


Klob/Biden votes more even distributed between rurals/small towns and other towns that aren't part of the "Metro SE Hillsborough County Region".

Rockingham County 2016 DEM PRIM--- 55k Votes (22% of NH Vote Share)  + 15% Sanders

Rockingham County---Boston Globe Poll

Buttigieg: 25
Sanders: 19
Klobuchar: 16
Biden: 13
Warren: 12

It is perhaps not surprising that we see Pete performing better than in Hillsborough, since at least the data points we have from the 2020 IA Caucuses, show him performing extremely well within the wealthier suburban precincts around Des Moines.

Likewise Klob did pretty well in some of these same joints in IA.

Still Sanders is doing a couple notches better than in Hillsborough according to this poll, which might well be explained by the fact Rockingham is a bit more Republican than Hillsborough at a National Level, and that there are still significant concentrations of Democratic support within the County that might have slightly different political identities.

Look at the 2016 GE Township map of NH for example and we see HRC decisively beating Trump in the heavily Upper Middle-Class regions of Eastern Rockingham County in what are generally fairly WASP parts of the State.

Look at the 2016 DEM PRIM map of NH, and we see Bernie performing extremely well in the much more heavily non-WASP places of West County, with HRC doing much better than State averages within the WASP East County Townships....

Maybe I'm totally off base here (and will happily be corrected), but as I posted a few pages back Bernie won by 23% against HRC in the largest single DEM vote share Township of Derry, which is 27% Irish-American, 24% French / French-Canadian, 17% Italian-American, and 5% Polish-American in what is essentially a working-class / Middle-Class town in terms of MHI and educational attainment....

Obviously these marginal shifts within CD's could well impact delegate counts, so we will see what happens tomorrow...

idk....this might be one hell of a precinct map (Just like IA), especially if we got dramatic shifts from one precinct to another....


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2020, 11:14:10 PM »

Why did the Dixville Notch Presidential Primary results collapse so dramatically from 2008?

(17) people voted in Dixville Notch in the NH '08 Primary, and now we are down to (5) total voters in 2020?

Fraud I call.... is Russia now hacking our first early voting from NH.... Wink
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2020, 11:33:28 PM »

Why did the Dixville Notch Presidential Primary results collapse so dramatically from 2008?

(17) people voted in Dixville Notch in the NH '08 Primary, and now we are down to (5) total voters in 2020?

Fraud I call.... is Russia now hacking our first early voting from NH.... Wink
There was a resort that closed for renovation that I believe caused mass population loss. The town was set to fall below five people which would’ve meant losing their own polling station and would result in having to combine with another town. However a fifth person moved in to allow them to continue their midnight voting tradition.

FFs to consider the "First Primary Votes" as an historical tradition which needs to be continued for us political-science junkies and the proud History of NH voting....

Remember reading Teddy White's book: "The Making of the President 1960" back in the late '80s when I first heard about the Dixville-Notch first contest during the '60 GE....

Obviously reading the subsequent Making of the President series through '72 it started to become a tradition in my mind, and loving it that it is still a Media Event (Despite being virtually meaningless statistically speaking).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Making_of_the_President_1960
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2020, 12:15:05 AM »

Go Yang!!!!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2020, 12:17:41 AM »

Can someone please post the comprehensive combined results in both Primaries by Votes and Vote shares, which will naturally help us have a much better picture of the State of the NH Primary coming tomorrow?

Could run the numbers myself, but one of you is likely to have the numbers on your trigger finders.... Wink
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« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2020, 07:31:17 PM »

Nice vote dump for Bernie
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« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2020, 07:35:12 PM »

Bernie shut out in Henniker?
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« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2020, 07:43:01 PM »

MSNBC says they have no votes in from Manchester yet....

Hmmm
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: February 11, 2020, 07:44:13 PM »

now msnbc is saying a 3rd of the vote in from manchester and Bernie gains decently
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« Reply #17 on: February 11, 2020, 07:52:23 PM »

58% of Manchester in 33-20 Sanders-Pete
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« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2020, 07:54:36 PM »

Manchester numbers are YUGE for Bernie thus far.... might be needed once some of the posher places kick in from Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties....
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« Reply #19 on: February 11, 2020, 08:00:57 PM »

Pete wins Hollis with 68% !

?

Is that a reporting error ? He’s netting more than 400 votes out of there.

It's a pretty posh place with a pop of 7k.... but looks like a reporting error considering only (3) candidates have votes even with only a 53-47 Bernie-Clinton win.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2020, 08:02:25 PM »


Sanders or Warren?
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« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2020, 08:06:08 PM »

18-29 yrs only 12% in exit poll per MSNBC, 65+ has dropped from 33% to 27%
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: February 11, 2020, 08:09:07 PM »

Tiny Township in Coos County (Far Northern NH)

Pete-Tulsi-Amy... Bernie places 5th...
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #23 on: February 11, 2020, 08:18:38 PM »

Bedford Pete/Amy but Sanders still placed 3rd at 16% with 100% in the posh decent pop 'burb of Manchester that I mentioned back on page 2 or 3 of the thread....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #24 on: February 11, 2020, 08:22:39 PM »

Nashua ward 3 results on CNN

Bernie wins with 590 votes, didn't get the others before they cut away from it, but it was a clear Bernie lead, 2nd place had like 400.

So similar to Manchester.

Holy smokes... Ba Jeesus
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