2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.

Where is OSR? He’s overconfident about Texas staying red

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Hoping Harris can get to 700k total by the end of the day, with a goal of a million by this time next week.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1318328000941871104

Yup, Dems need to pack the court. 5 out of 9 justices are anti-democracy

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Georgia: As of the 5 PM update, 173,926 votes were cast on Sunday. This is the largest single day of voting thus far (previous record for this election was last Wednesday, with 173,263 votes), and there are still votes to be reported. We may hit 200k today, depending on how many got processed before 5 PM across the state.

This includes 133,718 in-person votes and 40,208 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 955,994 in-person & 700,364 by mail, for a grand total of 1,656,358 (39.76% of 2016 total vote).

Related: Do you have the percent of the electorate that was white/black in 2018 and 2016?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Another 10,666 in Hidalgo County! 57% of 2016

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Another 41k of early vote in Bexar County. Over 50% of 2016 vote there too.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Collin County at 62% of 2016 turnout. (They just started 7-7 voting today).

Texas is going to come down to Collin County and the metroplex. Dems appear to be getting the turnout they need to in their base areas, so now it comes down to persuasion and new voters.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I am updating my percentage of 2016 vote tally of Texas counties with >200,000 population. "Why 200K?", you may ask. Because there are literally 15 counties between 100 and 200k population that are all solid red and I don't want to take the effort to keep up with those.

Anyway, I found my first county with 70% of 2016 votes, and it's a tossup rapidly growing suburban county to boot (Trump won it by literally 602 votes in 2016):

Hays

They have a late 2000s looking bare bones elections website and only give early voting and mail-in ballot data through separate excel spreadsheets with each individual voter's information (last name first name, address, precinct, even the time they checked in to vote, among others). Thus, you have to scroll all the way down on the spreadsheet to find the total. If you want to see it in all its glory here's a link to the results page where I got the numbers from:
https://hayscountytx.com/departments/elections/current-year-elections/

Despite these hurtles I found the golden nugget: 41,066 in person early votes + 9,671 returned mail ballots = 50,737 divided by the total number of 2016 votes (72,164) gives us 70.31%.
Incredible!

Cool!

Hays is Safe D, btw. Biden should hope to win here by around 20%. O’Rourke won by 17%.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

~27% of the voters so far in El Paso County didn't vote in 2016.

https://twitter.com/BradfordPearson/status/1318360571117506561

Really curious what the numbers are for the other counties in Monstro’s daily posts. I’m excited as hell!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/MD.html

The Maryland numbers are pretty stunning. 

I think it's pretty clear that Trump is going to lose the popular vote by a wide margin.  I'm guessing double the margin he lost to Hillary at a minimum.

Republicans show up in full force every Election Day. Dems in Iowa had a huge lead going into 2018, but it was more than erased on Election Day.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County thinks the final early vote will be higher than the 2016 cumulative vote, but that seems too optimistic to me unless we get a few more 100K days next week. We would need about 600k more for that to happen.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County thinks the final early vote will be higher than the 2016 cumulative vote, but that seems too optimistic to me unless we get a few more 100K days next week. We would need about 600k more for that to happen.

Only need pace of 55k a day, doesn't seem that unreasonable considering Sunday was the worst day with 42k in-person + mail combined. Looks like they're on pace to reach around 70k in-person today again as well. Unless there is a severe lull in voting later this week/weekend I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Harris County to exceed 2016 cumulative vote off early vote.

That's true. I guess I expect it to lag a bit as Dem high propensity voters run out, but we'll see. Getting to 1.3 million before Election Day would be stunning. That probably sets us up for 1.5-1.7 million total votes out of Harris.

If Biden can win Harris 60-39, that nets him well over the 300k votes I think he needs out of here to be sitting pretty statewide.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County thinks the final early vote will be higher than the 2016 cumulative vote, but that seems too optimistic to me unless we get a few more 100K days next week. We would need about 600k more for that to happen.

Only need pace of 55k a day, doesn't seem that unreasonable considering Sunday was the worst day with 42k in-person + mail combined. Looks like they're on pace to reach around 70k in-person today again as well. Unless there is a severe lull in voting later this week/weekend I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Harris County to exceed 2016 cumulative vote off early vote.

That's true. I guess I expect it to lag a bit as Dem high propensity voters run out, but we'll see. Getting to 1.3 million before Election Day would be stunning. That probably sets us up for 1.5-1.7 million total votes out of Harris.

If Biden can win Harris 60-39, that nets him well over the 300k votes I think he needs out of here to be sitting pretty statewide.

If it gets to 1.3 million, you only expect another 200k - 400k to vote on Election Day?

Yes. 2016 had just over 300k on ED. A lot of ED vote is likely to be cannibalized by the extended early voting timeframe this year. There will be some new low propensity voters voting on Election Day as well to counteract that a little, but I can't imagine ED making up a lot more than that.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1318639589511335937?s=20

Reminder that it's probably only going to be the Midwest that won't potentially be callable for days. Certainly lower level elections might go slower, but the Safe states will still be called at the buzzer and FL, NC, CO, and TX count fast enough to give us enough election night info.

This is why if Biden wins FL and especially TX, it will be over. The best way to avoid any protracted electoral dispute would be Texas going D. It’s a tall order, but we’re counting on you to save democracy, Texans.

Hear hear

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1318639589511335937?s=20

Reminder that it's probably only going to be the Midwest that won't potentially be callable for days. Certainly lower level elections might go slower, but the Safe states will still be called at the buzzer and FL, NC, CO, and TX count fast enough to give us enough election night info.

This is why if Biden wins FL and especially TX, it will be over. The best way to avoid any protracted electoral dispute would be Texas going D. It’s a tall order, but we’re counting on you to save democracy, Texans.

Texan NeverTrump Republicans at your service!

Are you voting for Castñeda for RRC?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Over 60k in Harris County as of 5pm, on track for another 70k day.

Travis at 28k, will easily surpass yesterday’s 31k.

My hope for Travis County is to have at least 500k banked by end of EV (they will cross the 300k mark today), and add at least 100k on Election Day. That would set Biden up to net 300k+ out of there in addition to Harris.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County added 82k today (mail and EV). Total countywide surpasses 800k.

https://harrisvotes.com/Docs/Uploads/EVPA_unofficial.pdf

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis County adds 35k including mail. They are at 308k (2/3) of 2016 turnout and 63% of 2018’s 484k turnout. I think they should be able to get to at least 500k (ten more days) by the end of early voting, which is insane.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

What does it all mean?

For one thing, things aren't slowing down. Denton and Collin Counties are both up at least 7% from yesterday, as is Williamson. I believe Tarrant went up 6-8% too from yesterday. Tarrant is especially impressive given we are still voting 8-5 while most of the rest of the urban counties are 7-7 now, which we dont switch over to until Saturday.

To add onto this, high turnout in these places benefits Biden, obviously.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

MT's numbers are coming in pretty strong, which is a very good sign. 2018 proved there were A LOT of Democrats in MT who didn't show up in 2018.

Also; imagine if TX gets over 100% of it's 2016 total before election day. It's not impossible considering TX has historically low turnout rates but now that it's in the national spotlight that seems to be changing. Still very unlikely, but not impossible.

A lot of Beto counties or Beto-trending counties (Denton, Collin) will almost definitely be over 100% before Election Day.

Harris, Travis, and Williamson will while Bexar, Hidalgo, Dallas, Tarrant, Cameron, and El Paso are on the knife's edge of making it.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

[tweet]

Ughhhh.

For the 100th time: these lines are an abomination !

I wonder when the US will have a system in place like other civilized Western countries that allow people to go in, vote and leave within 5 minutes ?

2050 ?

2100 ?

I strongly agree. I have voted in every danish election at every level since 1993 and have never stood in line for more than a couple of minutes. We are talking shorter lines than in the supermarket. And in Denmark we have voter participation rates of 85% and barely anybody votes by mail or votes early. Virtually the entire population votes on election day. It can absolutely be done to eliminate lines and should be done in any civilized country.

Also, every citizen is automatically registrered to vote when they turn 18 and every citizen is automatically mailed their voter card before every election. It’s not rocket science.

!!!

I hope there is a prolonged time of bi-partisanship after Trump gets booted and the US will look at our voting systems here and then pass a comprehensive election reform amendment into its constitution.

You have a profound misunderstanding of American politics if you think that has a >0% chance of happening.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

in 2012 D early vote lead was 68 k, 288 k D voted early.
in 2016 D early vote lead was 42 k, 267 k D voted early
in 2020 D early vote lead is 136 k,  already 324 k D voted early.
So, it is not fair comparison.  2020 is not 2016.

Dems had a huge lead in 2018.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris was at 53k and Travis at 21k as of 4:30 local. Both point to counties being on pace to have over 100% of the 2016 vote in at the end of early voting in those counties.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

LOL^^. I’m trying to find the funniest thing I’ve ever seen on this forum which was a post where Mt Treasurer made a mock election night tally where Biden led Trump in Georgia by 1000 votes and 97% in and the only outstanding precincts were in Clayton and DeKalb County. In it he says something like “Is it there yet?”