Hamilton County, Indiana (Carmel)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Thanks for proving my point. The conservative suburb/exurb (Union) stayed solid red.

You left out the part that it voted 10 points to the left of the Trump-Clinton numbers and that McCready cratered with rural voters but thanks

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Yeah, yeah we know.... Collin county will flip and Hamilton county is toss-up because trends.

You guys are quite the disingenuous straw men creators aren’t ya. Nowhere have I said any of that. Merely that rural voters aren’t going to come running back to Democrats in significant numbers anytime soon, and that the Republican erosion in suburbia is still happening. No need to get so butt hurt by those facts

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

it’s really stupid to extrapolate from special elections

Yeah, I remember after GA-6 people said Romney Clinton suburbia was fool's gold for Democrats after one disappointing result.

But enough about your constantly wrong predictions of suburbia

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Yeah, yeah we know.... Collin county will flip and Hamilton county is toss-up because trends.

You guys are quite the disingenuous straw men creators aren’t ya. Nowhere have I said any of that. Merely that rural voters aren’t going to come running back to Democrats in significant numbers anytime soon, and that the Republican erosion in suburbia is still happening. No need to get so butt hurt by those facts

I agree that wealthy suburbs will continue to trend D over the years, simply because they have done so in every elections since 1988 (with the exception of 2012), but you, you’re greatly overestimating how fast these trends are talking place.

Wealthy and diversifying is what I would say. And how am I greatly overestimating this when we’ve seen places like Orange County, Gwinnett County, Cobb County, Williamson County, Maricopa County, Travis County, Bexar County, Dallas County, Collin County, Tarrant County and Harris County all swing 20+ points or more in the past seven years? That’s pretty fast by most standards. These places aren’t going back to the GOP fold (the same holds true for rural areas and Democrats as we’ve seen) and a lot of people on this website can’t seem to come to grips with that reality. Namely Mr. computer and mr. Politician

And there’s plenty of precedent of outsized trends two plus elections in a row in the same places. Look at the northern suburbs or cities in the 80’s and 90’s or the countless rural areas that have trended incredibly Republican multiple elections in a row

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

See what I added t my comment above. There’s actually a ton of precedent for that almost anywhere you look.