Hamilton County, Indiana (Carmel)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is one of the first affluent, suburban counties to close polls on Election Night, and may be a good early indicator of how Trump is doing among suburbanites who traditionally vote Republican, but are skeptical of Trump.

Bush 2000: 74.25%
Bush 2004: 74.24%
McCain 2008: 60.64%
Romney 2012: 66.20%
Trump 2016: 56.04%

My hunch is that if Trump can't get to 55% here, he's in trouble nationally, and if he can't win a majority, he's doomed.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

[redeagleofficial]

He probably will do about the same, Braun got 52 there and I expect Trump to outperform him.  Yet "early indicator counties" are a concept I just don't buy.  CNN was so certain Trump would lose FL bc of his performance in Hillsborough but failed to see his strength in the panhandle.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

That would be a very encouraging result for the Democratic challenger. If Hamilton hasn't trended left compared to the state, it means Trump is only taking Indiana by 6-10 points, which means he has no chance to keep Ohio. If Hamilton has trended significantly left compared to the state, it probably means similar areas around the country are trending left, which is bad news for Trump in the Sunbelt.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

[Politician]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Thanks for proving my point. The conservative suburb/exurb (Union) stayed solid red.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Thanks for proving my point. The conservative suburb/exurb (Union) stayed solid red.

You left out the part that it voted 10 points to the left of the Trump-Clinton numbers and that McCready cratered with rural voters but thanks

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

He probably will do about the same, Braun got 52 there and I expect Trump to outperform him.  Yet "early indicator counties" are a concept I just don't buy.  CNN was so certain Trump would lose FL bc of his performance in Hillsborough but failed to see his strength in the panhandle.

I'm not talking about Hamilton as an indicator for Indiana, but as an indicator for other similar areas across the nation. In 2016, what should have been apparent (and actually was to a few who raised the alarm) was how much worse Hillary did than Obama in white rural areas across Indiana and Kentucky. That would have informed CNN that when the epic vote dump came in from the Panhandle, it would go heavily for Trump.

Of course, hindsight, and they didn't have time to update their models based on what was happening in other states, but the point is, there were a lot of counties in Indiana and Kentucky that were very good indicators of what the night would bring. Hamilton might give a window into suburban Atlanta, Charlotte, and Phoenix.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

57 to 60%

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

57 to 60%

If the early results show Trump with 60% in Hamilton County, I'm turning off the TV and going somewhere to drink heavily for the rest of the night, far away from any TV set or online screen.

[Frenchrepublican]

Around 58%. The share of third parties will drop considerably so I expect trump to do better than in 2016.

Matchups :

Warren vs Trump : Trump wins 59/39
Sanders vs Trump : Trump wins 59/37
Biden vs Trump : Trump wins 57/41

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Yeah, yeah we know.... Collin county will flip and Hamilton county is toss-up because trends.

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

it’s really stupid to extrapolate from special elections

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Yeah, yeah we know.... Collin county will flip and Hamilton county is toss-up because trends.

You guys are quite the disingenuous straw men creators aren’t ya. Nowhere have I said any of that. Merely that rural voters aren’t going to come running back to Democrats in significant numbers anytime soon, and that the Republican erosion in suburbia is still happening. No need to get so butt hurt by those facts

[Politician]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

it’s really stupid to extrapolate from special elections

Yeah, I remember after GA-6 people said Romney Clinton suburbia was fool's gold for Democrats after one disappointing result.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

it’s really stupid to extrapolate from special elections

Yeah, I remember after GA-6 people said Romney Clinton suburbia was fool's gold for Democrats after one disappointing result.

But enough about your constantly wrong predictions of suburbia

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

That would be a very encouraging result for the Democratic challenger. If Hamilton hasn't trended left compared to the state, it means Trump is only taking Indiana by 6-10 points, which means he has no chance to keep Ohio. If Hamilton has trended significantly left compared to the state, it probably means similar areas around the country are trending left, which is bad news for Trump in the Sunbelt.

Yeah, if Trump is winning only 52% in Hamilton county he is kaput. Donnelly did very well in 2018 in Hamilton because he was a centrist/pro-business democrat, besides he campaigned heavily in this area, I doubt that the 2020 democratic presidential candidate will be a very good fit for Hamilton

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Yeah, yeah we know.... Collin county will flip and Hamilton county is toss-up because trends.

You guys are quite the disingenuous straw men creators aren’t ya. Nowhere have I said any of that. Merely that rural voters aren’t going to come running back to Democrats in significant numbers anytime soon, and that the Republican erosion in suburbia is still happening. No need to get so butt hurt by those facts

I agree that wealthy suburbs will continue to trend D over the years, simply because they have done so in every elections since 1988 (with the exception of 2012), but you, you’re greatly overestimating how fast these trends are talking place.
Hamilton trended heavily D between 2012 and 2016 (15 points to the left) but it’s pretty unlikely that it will trend 15 points D again in 2020 simply because it’s uncommon for an area to trend heavily toward the same party two elections in a row.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Yeah, yeah we know.... Collin county will flip and Hamilton county is toss-up because trends.

You guys are quite the disingenuous straw men creators aren’t ya. Nowhere have I said any of that. Merely that rural voters aren’t going to come running back to Democrats in significant numbers anytime soon, and that the Republican erosion in suburbia is still happening. No need to get so butt hurt by those facts

I agree that wealthy suburbs will continue to trend D over the years, simply because they have done so in every elections since 1988 (with the exception of 2012), but you, you’re greatly overestimating how fast these trends are talking place.

Wealthy and diversifying is what I would say. And how am I greatly overestimating this when we’ve seen places like Orange County, Gwinnett County, Cobb County, Williamson County, Maricopa County, Travis County, Bexar County, Dallas County, Collin County, Tarrant County and Harris County all swing 20+ points or more in the past seven years? That’s pretty fast by most standards. These places aren’t going back to the GOP fold (the same holds true for rural areas and Democrats as we’ve seen) and a lot of people on this website can’t seem to come to grips with that reality. Namely Mr. computer and mr. Politician

And there’s plenty of precedent of outsized trends two plus elections in a row in the same places. Look at the northern suburbs or cities in the 80’s and 90’s or the countless rural areas that have trended incredibly Republican multiple elections in a row

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Yeah, yeah we know.... Collin county will flip and Hamilton county is toss-up because trends.

You guys are quite the disingenuous straw men creators aren’t ya. Nowhere have I said any of that. Merely that rural voters aren’t going to come running back to Democrats in significant numbers anytime soon, and that the Republican erosion in suburbia is still happening. No need to get so butt hurt by those facts

I agree that wealthy suburbs will continue to trend D over the years, simply because they have done so in every elections since 1988 (with the exception of 2012), but you, you’re greatly overestimating how fast these trends are talking place.

Wealthy and diversifying is what I would say. And how am I greatly overestimating this when we’ve seen places like Orange County, Gwinnett County, Cobb County, Williamson County, Maricopa County, Travis County, Bexar County, Dallas County, Collin County, Tarrant County and Harris County all swing 20+ points or more in the past seven years? That’s pretty fast by most standards. These places aren’t going back to the GOP fold (the same holds true for rural areas and Democrats as we’ve seen) and a lot of people on this website can’t seem to come to grips with that reality. Namely Mr. computer and mr. Politician

On the long term these areas are trending heavily D, yeah, but an area which already trended heavily D between 2012 and 2016 is unlikely to trend again heavily toward democrats between 2016 and 2020, unless some very big demographic changes take place between 2016 and 2020 (Hays County for example)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

See what I added t my comment above. There’s actually a ton of precedent for that almost anywhere you look.

[Xing]

Trump wins 55-40 or so.

[Frenchrepublican]

See what I added t my comment above. There’s actually a ton of precedent for that almost anywhere you look.

There are some examples, yeah, but they’re are uncommon. Example ; some places have trended R in every election since 1996 (Appalachia) but it has been a gradual trend. The only areas which are trending hard in the same direction every election are those which are experiencing big demographic changes, for example Clayton county which is near Atlanta,

[Frenchrepublican]

See what I added t my comment above. There’s actually a ton of precedent for that almost anywhere you look.

There are some examples, yeah, but they’re are uncommon. Example ; some places have trended R in every election since 1996 (Appalachia) but it has been a gradual trend. The only areas which are trending hard in the same direction every election are those which are experiencing big demographic changes, for example Clayton county which is near Atlanta,

TBF, I think some of those suburban counties such as the TX suburbs are expericing massive demographic changes. But yeah, for rural counties they usually didn't consistently trend red pre-2016 and especially in 2008 many of them trended blue.

Yeah, Williamson or Hays could trend D a lot again in 2020, but Hamilton county on the other hand is not experiencing as much demographic changes than these two counties.

[MT Treasurer]

If you people seriously believe that a Romney +34/Trump +19 county in which Braun did seven points worse than Richard Mourdoch even as the state went from D+6 to R+6 couldn’t possibly swing another 8-12 points to the left...

I’m sure everything’s fine and that this is the kind of county which will surely vote 57% Trump and barely swing/trend Democratic in 2020, if at all: