Australia 2007

[Platypus]

Basically, the government should have dumped Howard late last year. If they do it before the end of April, it gives Costello a chance to be a confirmed leader before an early December poll, perhaps.

There are numerous reasons why the ALP is leading the Coalition, but the three primary ones are: 1. People have a genuine dislike of Howard 2. People are totally sick of the government 3. Rudd and the ALP are tolerable, and in comparison amazing.

Iraq certainly doesn't help the Coalition, but Howard has been much less affected by it than Bush or Blair. Climate Change is also hurting Howard a lot; and he's not finding any real salvation in the economy which isn't showing the kind of numbers it did last time around.

That said, there is a very low chance of the ALP winning with 60% of the TPP vote. In fact, if they get over 42% of the primary vote, i'll be surprised. My guesstimate is a massive vote for third parties, leaning towards Labor, and a Labor win with something like 80 seats. Most of the gains will be made in Tasmania, South Australia and New South Wales; Queensland will continue to dissappoint the ALP.

Also, Beazley would probably be in a position that would lead to a close election anyway; Rudd just goes beyond that and makes it a likelyhood.

Re:Bennelong. It's got a lot of new, young groovesters over the last decade, but I think it's old demographics will win out at least for now.

Re: Deal with the devil. Anyone else here familiar with the term "Lazarus with a triple bypass"?

[Platypus]

Basically, the government is on the nose. Howard is on the nose.

The ONLY way the liberals can win is if Labor stuffs up. Basically, Labor is seen as an alternative, and a better alternative, for the first time in a long time.

[Platypus]

Well, the ALP is actually winning in parliament. If you're familiar with the Australian parliamentary system, that's unusual.

[Platypus]

We've had a newspoll today suggesting that Rudd's preffered PM numbers are down to Howard's level/Howard's are up to Rudd's level. This really surprises me, because I thought Labor's success in the polls was primarily anti-Howard sentiment. That support continues, but I am now inclined to think it is far less firm than I considered it before; positive support for an opposition hasn't won an Australian election in decades. If the voters are pro-ALP, and not anti-Coalition or anti-Howard, things are significantly more volatile and we could see a massive change between now and election day.

[Platypus]

As a sub-note, I'm going to be involved in a by-election in a few weeks. John Thwaites, Deputy Premier of Victoria, as well as Water, Climate Change and Environment Minister (I think that's all...) and the member for Albert Park, is stepping down.

In less important news, so is the Premier, Steve Bracks, so Williamstown will be having one as well.

[Platypus]

Well, I have no real probl;em with Brumby. He might not be as likeable as Bracks or Thwaites, but he is certainly competant enough.

That said, if the rumours about a parachuting are true, I doubt i'll vote ALP in the by-election. The ALP will win my preference if:

a) They select a local-Dick Gross would be acceptable too, even though he is from outside Albert Park; he has been involved with the area significantly over the past decade, including as mayor of Port Phillip.

b) The Liberals also parachute

Personally, I think whilst the Murray-Darling Scheme may have been a factor, Bracks actually DID resign to spend more time with his family. His family has gone through some pretty serious stuff recently (his daughter was in hospital after a drinking binge and his son wrecked the car whilst drunk).

Teddy Baillieu is alright, but I don't see a mass swing to the Liberals because of the Premier's resignation or Brumby's appointment.

[Platypus]

As a sub-note, I'm going to be involved in a by-election in a few weeks. John Thwaites, Deputy Premier of Victoria, as well as Water, Climate Change and Environment Minister (I think that's all...) and the member for Albert Park, is stepping down.

In less important news, so is the Premier, Steve Bracks, so Williamstown will be having one as well.

I thought it was quite odd that both Bracks and Thwaites resigned on the same day. I think it's got something to do with that Murray-Darling river scheme. I wish, some one will challenge John Brumby for the leadership on Monday morning, he stuffed up as Opposition leader in the 1990's and he'll do it again when he's Premier. With Premier Brumby looming, it seems that Ted Ballieu will become Premier in 2010, if not some other rich Liberal from Toorak.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again, John Howard will win a 5th term in 2007 over Kevin Rudd's ALP. These Prefered Prime Minister polls mean nothing. Howard will win. Mark my words.

I SERIOUSLY doubt the Libs will win a 5th term.

You don't know the Libs, Howard or Australia that well then.

Howard will lose seats at the next election. The question is if he'll lose enough to lose government, and on that i'm leaning, narrowly, towards no. There aren't enough truly marginal coalition seats, and Rudd is not as effective in Queensland as everyone had thought he would be.

Basically, the Senate will be out of Coalition hands as a gaurantee, which is a very very positive step, but there could be three more years of Coalition governance quite easily.

[Platypus]

My response is similar and less well-sourced, but:

1. Mark Vaile (leader of the Nationals, the junior coalition partner) may be PM for a short while, but very shortly afterwards Peter Costello would end up PM, if it wasn't immediate. Mark Vaile is pretty safe, fwiw.

2. Howard would immediately resign the Liberal leadership and Peter Costello would take it, sin preguntas. Again there is the possibility of a very short Vaile Prime Ministership. Howard would resign from parliament reasonably soon, but i'm not 100% certain it would be immediate.

3. If the coalition is re-elected, Howard will be Prime Minister for at least another year, most likely one and a half or so. I'd doubt he'd fight the next election though, and unless Costello challenges and loses, he's the natural sucessor. But, if he does challenge and lose, we might see some interesting factionalism, and possibly even Howard leading the party to another election. Unlikely of course, but it'd be fascinating.

[Platypus]

Whoever said Australian politics had reasched the 21st century was right-now the pollies use fax machines to make themselves and everyone around them look like tools.

[Platypus]

OMG KEVIN IS A PEDOPHILE!!!

Well, not really. But he did go to an 'up-market' strip club in NYC a few years ago. He says it hurts his support and suggests that the Foreign Minister's department leaked the story. I think it plays neutral-it makes him less of a wowser but won't exactly seen women swooning in his direction. I'm also certain that the gov't has it's paws all over this; but the ALP would probably do the same.

Coincidentally, we're in the middle of Student Association elections here at ANU. There are 4 main tickets-'Us', which is Labor left/greens etc.; basically the socialists; 'Innovate for 08', the Labor right with a few independents thrown in; 'One Campus', or the Liberals (they'll get massacred, partially because they are open about their allegiance and partly because their posters are being vandalised to read 'one nation', and 'Labor Youth', the joke ticket, the main premise of which is 'you've been voting Labor for years; at least now we're being honest about it'.

I plan to vote for a little bit of a spread, but focussed on Innovate and Labor Youth

[Platypus]

Most Australians like that they are able to put an independent or third party as their first preference, although the majority still vote for the Liberals/Nationals or ALP first, at least in the House. Generally, the House of Reps is all coalition or Labor, with some independents and the very occasional minor party representatives, but the senate is where it gets interesting-dozens of candidates for 6 positions, two ways of voting, backroom preference deals...and usually a minor party balance of power. This parliament's senate BoP is officially with the National Party; last senate it was the democrats and greens; the one before that the democrats. Generally, people like having the government held to account in the senate by a third party-or at least enough people do for them to be elected to the position.

BTW, i'm feeling rudd-tastic.

Oh, and after reading ag's post, i'd say that despite its complexities, compulsory preferential voting is the best system in use in the world at a national level at the moment. It gaurantees that to win an electorate you need (at least in theory) 50%+1 of all voter's support, or at least opposition to the other final-round candidate.

[Platypus]

Liberal in the historic sense indicates a belief in the individual and a distrust of government intervention in the economy as being likelier to benefit the moneyed classes than the common folk.  Just because here in the United States it got perverted into a substitute for "democratic socialist" because of our monomania about socialism doesn't mean that perversion should be taken as the norm.

That said, you could hardly say the libs were in favour of social freedoms, and their workplaces legislation is rather heavy-handed.

Coincidentally, Stephen Harper's speech was good, although he did get very, very involved in our elections for a foreign leader-he basically said 'Vote Liberal or starve!'

[Platypus]

I'll also be there tomorrow, actually.

Coincidentally, Labor won both the Victorian by-elections, but the Greens did get over 40% of the TPP vote-and the Democrats got over 5% of the first preferences-in Albert Park. In fact, the booth I voted in was won by the Green TPP-Middle Park-by a few dozen votes, but only 600 or so people voted in that booth, and it's probably also a more Liberal-friendly booth than any other in the district bar Southbank.

[Platypus]

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/

Something to play around with.

I factored in a state by state swing

NSW - 4.5%
VIC - 3.4%
QLD - 7.1%
WA - 2.3%
TAS - 2.7%
SA - 4.6%
ACT - 2.1%
NT - 3.3%

Which gives a result of
Labor 79 seats
Coalition 69 seats
Other 2 seats

Basically gives Labor a tiny majority.

...but in Australia, especially with the ALP, the size of the majority means pretty much nothing...until the next election.

[Platypus]

Well the odds of the election being called before next Monday are at $1.20, so I'm pretty sure it'll happen.

Meanwhile, Anna Bligh faced her first question time today and did OK; although she had a slight slip up when she referred to 'the Premier' and didn't mean herself

[Platypus]

Krudd screwed up, but anyway...


There is a real feel that the election is about to be called. here on campus it is absolutely buzzing. No chance of me studying for my exams

[Platypus]

Election is go: 24th of November. Rolls close October 20th.

[Platypus]

I reckon the ALP will gain 10 seats without any trouble, the 16 is roughly even and over 20 is unlikely.

[Platypus]

I firmly, firmly believe that the ALP is not guartanteed victory.

As Polnut pointed out, to lose an election in a landslide is very, very uncommon here-especially for the coalition-and even to lose an election is uncommon, there have only been 5 changes of political party in government since world war two.

Oppositions do not win elections here, governments lose them. If the libs do lose this time around, it would probably be the first case of the opposite, but even then the majority of voters will be basing their vote on the coalition, not on labor-positive or negative, the government is very very much in the spotlight for this election, at least so far.

[Platypus]

how do you qualify? Who do you write for/work for?

Coincidentally, I'm feeling more anti-Rudd now. I'll still preference him, but I no longer actively support him.

[Platypus]

I liked Krudd in the media slut days-or the sunrise days, as I call them. He was prepared to actually set out differences on issues, go on the 7:30 report and speak intelligently on foreign affairs issues, and basically debate the issues in the public sphere showing intelligence.

I was once a strong supporter of Krudd. I wanted him to win the leadership. When he did, I thought Australia might end up with a good quality PM who would make a difference, and usher in a new era of government where foreign affairs and social policy were well served, not just the strong economics of the Liberals.


I was wrong.


And now I want Kevin Rudd to lose.


I cannot stand John Howard, and most of his government. But what I really want is change, and i'm prepared to wait 18 months for Costello. I will be preferencing the Liberals.

This is not a decision I take lightly, and it may change before election day, but the ALP is a bad party at the core, and Kevin Rudd would make a bad Prime Minister-not a good combo.

I still think the ALP could have made a good government, but based on their current rhetoric, I cannot support tyhem. the Liberal Party has a better core ethos-or at least it did before about 2001-and I'm prepared to see how they will change under a Costello prime ministership. If there is no significant change, I will probably vote ALP in 2010, but I'd rather chance that than a Krudd Labor government.

Of course, the ALP will win my seat anyway, and my senate preference will still go to the ALP, so maybe my vote doesn't matter too much, but, that's where it stands anyway. I think by the time this campaign is over, my viewpoint will not be a solitary one, either.

[Platypus]

Howard looked uncomfortable the entire evening. Rudd slipped up too and was clearly very tense, looking like an ice statue much of the time, but Howard looked uncomfortable and flustered-not a good thing at all.

Krudd clearly won the debate, but mainly because Howard lost it.

[Platypus]

...if they go up, which is about 50/50. Inflation is still within the target range but the reserve bank will need to put them up either this cycle or the next, anyway.

[Platypus]

Abbott really is a huge tosspot.
Maybe the Victorian results have something to do with Costello?

[Platypus]

That's sad-he was an excellent local member. His neice is here at uni with me, actually.

Alsio, a good newspoll for the coalition today, 53-47 ALP.