Australia 2007

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Well the Debate between Howard and Rudd is over. Myself and many others believe that Kevin Rudd was the winner of the debate. One survey of voters in the Channel 9 studio (run by the Packer's) said that Rudd won the debate, by a significant margin. Just like that last debates, where Beazley and Latham were seen as the better debaters, however they lost the election.

Rudd was quite strong on all fronts during the debate, especially on the 'Education Revolution' and his Iraq Policy. Though at some stages, Rudd seemed to be sweating under the pressure, which was quite noticable.

Whilst Prime Minister Howard was quite strong debator too, however not much as Rudd. Howard did surprisingly get good reviews from the Studio audience at Channel 9, on his plan to sign a comprehensive Climate Change policy with the World's biggest Carbon emitters. The United States, China and India would be included.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Right... back.

Interesting night.

Rudd was the CLEAR winner. While Rudd got thrown a few times, he always managed to recover and finish strong.

There was an audible "huh?" when Howard announced the Climate Change fund. I was pleased that someone in the Labor party FINALLY... FINALLY went after Howard's record while treasurer.

Rudd's clear wins.
- Education
- Climate change
- Iraq
- Household costs

Howard's clear wins.
- Economic management

Mixed
- National security

* The format did work better than I anticipated - when the two went at each other - I saw Libs squirm, because Rudd looked pretty calm and Howard went all red.

- Overall there's a reason Howard wants these things as early in the campaign as possible - he's bad at it. Not debating... but TV debating.
-

[Platypus]

Howard looked uncomfortable the entire evening. Rudd slipped up too and was clearly very tense, looking like an ice statue much of the time, but Howard looked uncomfortable and flustered-not a good thing at all.

Krudd clearly won the debate, but mainly because Howard lost it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well the latest Newspoll came out - it shows a Labor lead TPP of 58-42 - note the 54-46 and 53-47 polls of last week were after the Coalition Tax policy was launched... but before Labor's on Tax and childcare. This poll also was before the Debate.

Some interesting notes, Rudd's gone up 4 points as preferred economic manager only trailing Howard by 9, who's under 50%. Rudd is now preferred PM by 13% (50-37%)

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm not very knowledgable about Australian politics, but from up here, it looks like while everything has been going right for Labor since 2004, WorkChoices hhas been the nail in the coffin for the Coalition. Am I right?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I'm not very knowledgable about Australian politics, but from up here, it looks like while everything has been going right for Labor since 2004, WorkChoices hhas been the nail in the coffin for the Coalition. Am I right?

I would say that everything has been going right for the ALP since about mid 2006. More so when Kevin Rudd was elected leader of the ALP in December 2006. Since February, the ALP with Rudd at the helm, has been leading most Opinion Polls. Most of these polls had the ALP up by more than 10 percentage points too.

I wouldn't say WorkChoices has been the nail in the coffin for the Coalition, because many other factors such as rising interest rates, Australian involvement in Iraq has also contributed to the Liberal Party's current status in the polls.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Government hasn't led in an opinion poll since about Aug 2006 - in fact, the last poll before Beazley was replaced by Rudd was 54-46. I will disagree with Rocky on this, yes issues like interest rates had an impact - Iraq was never going to be an election decider.

WorkChoices more than anything else, changed the perception of Howard himself. Until Aug 2005, when the Government got control of the Senate - Howard was seen as pragmatic, and even if you didn't like him - there was begrudging respect. The timing suggests (not definitely) that around this time the view was growing, that Howard was out of touch - that view as a wily, clever politician - became opportunistic and cunning.

What might be the final nail in the coffin, is the likely interest rate rise on November 6.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

.
What might be the final nail in the coffin, is the likely interest rate rise on November 6.

So much for keeping interest rates low Johnny. I believe this is the sixth time interest rates have gone up during his 4th term in office. It probably will be the final nail in the coffin, thus then end of Howard's political career. Which is certain anyway, considering he'll hand over the leadership, half way through his fifth term, if the Government is re-elected.

[Platypus]

...if they go up, which is about 50/50. Inflation is still within the target range but the reserve bank will need to put them up either this cycle or the next, anyway.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

...if they go up, which is about 50/50. Inflation is still within the target range but the reserve bank will need to put them up either this cycle or the next, anyway.

Be careful not to fall into Costello's trap - the underlying figure, once all the most volatile prices are removed has things sitting at 2.9% at the VERY top of the Reserve's comfort zone.

Plus, every economist has said that's it's more like 80% chance that rates go up on November 7.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Now to something completly different. Does anyone know when was the last time, Interest Rates went down? Did they go down when Howard took office in 1996 or did they stay the same once Keating was gone? Thanks.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

They were already at about 7% when Howard took office - they dropped a little bit further in 1996/7 went up back to 1996 levels in 1999 - and dropped again in late 2001.

[Democratic Hawk]

A change still, seemingly, very likely I gather

Dave

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We'll see when the next batch of polls are released - but it seems that people just don't seem to want to listen to Howard/Costello any more.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Poll Update: Labor is leading the Coalition 54-46% on two party prefered according to the latest Galaxy Polls.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll...

Well that pulls pretty much all of them - giving Labor a 8-10% lead.

It's hillarious that you can get an 8% turnaround TPP in a week and still be behind by 8%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

State results from the last few Newspolls:

NSW: 52% ALP, 32% Lib, 5% Nats, 5% Greenies [Two Party: ALP 59%]
SA: 52% ALP, 38% Lib, 3% Greenies [Two Party: ALP 58%]
Qld: 52% ALP, 33% Lib, 7% Nats, 3% Greenies [Two Party: ALP 56%]
Vic: 45% ALP, 40% Lib, 7% Greenies, 2% Nats [Two Party: ALP 54%]
WA: 46% Lib, 43% ALP, 4% Greenies [Two Party: Lib 51%]

[Tetro Kornbluth]

State results from the last few Newspolls:

NSW: 52% ALP, 32% Lib, 5% Nats, 5% Greenies [Two Party: ALP 59%]
SA: 52% ALP, 38% Lib, 3% Greenies [Two Party: ALP 58%]
Qld: 52% ALP, 33% Lib, 7% Nats, 3% Greenies [Two Party: ALP 56%]
Vic: 45% ALP, 40% Lib, 7% Greenies, 2% Nats [Two Party: ALP 54%]
WA: 46% Lib, 43% ALP, 4% Greenies [Two Party: Lib 51%]

Which on a Uniform Swing would give us (Supposing TAS, NT and ACT vote the way they are expected to - which is all ALP.):

ALP 105 Coalition 45 Indies 2.

[ag]

What's going on in Victoria? NSW, SA and ALD look like a landslide, WA is close, as it should be, but Victoria?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The internals have been showing a much stronger than expected showing in VIC for the ALP, they have their eyes on about 2 or 3 seats, plus some NSW seat by seat polling is scaring the bejesus out of the Liberals.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well - the politician I loathe like no other REALLY dropped himself in it yesterday.

Tony Abbott - the right-wing Health minister - had to apoligse publicly three times yesterday.

1. He made a dispariging comment about an abstestos campaigner who's on his last legs.

2. He was 30 mins late for a televised debate with his shadow Nicola Roxon - then overheard saying "bulls**t" to her in a testy little exchange afterwards.

3. His much hyped take-over of the Mersey Hosptial in a critical margial seat may not happen before the election.

Oh the glee... the glee!!!!

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Well - the politician I loathe like no other REALLY dropped himself in it yesterday.

Tony Abbott - the right-wing Health minister - had to apoligse publicly three times yesterday.

1. He made a dispariging comment about an abstestos campaigner who's on his last legs.

2. He was 30 mins late for a televised debate with his shadow Nicola Roxon - then overheard saying "bulls**t" to her in a testy little exchange afterwards.

3. His much hyped take-over of the Mersey Hosptial in a critical margial seat may not happen before the election.

Oh the glee... the glee!!!!

I concur with you Jack. Tony Abbott is a politician I love to loathe to. He really stuffed up yesterday when he ran 30 minutes for the Health Ministers Debate. That exchange afterwards was quite funny. I guess it's showing on the Coalition Government.

[Platypus]

Abbott really is a huge tosspot.
Maybe the Victorian results have something to do with Costello?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Independent M.P for Calare, Peter Andren, has died. Andren had been diagnosed with cancer back in August and wasn't running for re-election.

[Platypus]

That's sad-he was an excellent local member. His neice is here at uni with me, actually.

Alsio, a good newspoll for the coalition today, 53-47 ALP.