Australia 2007

[Verily]

I can't find a thread for this one, so I thought I'd open one. The election is probably going to be held in late 2007 (though theoretically it could be held in early January 2008).

John Howard will be trying to be reelected as Prime Minister for a fifth term, but that's beginning to look like a remote possibility. Howard's Coalition, consisting of the (right-wing) Liberal Party, the National Party, and the Country Liberal Party, trails the opposition Labor [sic] Party distantly, mostly because of Howard's support for the Iraq War but also because of general discontent with Howard's government.

The Coalition has governed Australia nationally since 1996, but, since 2002, every Australian province and territory has been governed by the Labor Party. The most recent poll gives:

Labor: 60.5% (-1)
Coalition: 39.5% (+1)

Two-party preferred. (Only the Australian Greens stand a chance of breaking into second place anywhere, and they'd lose any instant run-off.)

John Howard, Prime Minister
Approve: 46% (-3)
Disapprove: 49% (+5)

Kevin Rudd, Leader of the Opposition
Approve: 67% (+2)
Disapprove: 19% (-2)

Link: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/searchSimpleResults/iw/1/keyword/howard%20and%20rudd

[Cubby]

I knew Kevin Rudd was a great choice but those numbers are stunning.

We'll finally be rid of John Howard!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      


One question: Why does the Iraq War matter to Australians now when it didn't in October 2004? Latham tried to make it an issue, but Hugh and others said all they cared about back then was economics. Whats changed?

[Hash]

Yay! Howard khalas! It's gonna be near to a Labor landslide!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's gonna be near to a Labor landslide!

I'd like to believe that, I really would. But the Coalition always rallies during the campaign, like they've got a pact with the devil or something.
Still; right now it does look possible that, even if that does happen, the ALP will still have a good shot at winning.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It's gonna be near to a Labor landslide!

I'd like to believe that, I really would. But the Coalition always rallies during the campaign, like they've got a pact with the devil or something.
Still; right now it does look possible that, even if that does happen, the ALP will still have a good shot at winning.

What do you mean "Like"?

[merseysider]

A 20-point lead is truly stunning - I wonder how that would transfer into seats? As far as I'm aware, Australia doesn't tend to have the kind of super-safe constituencies that you get here in the UK, where the holding party (usually Labour) can get 70+% of the vote, and seats with a majority of 15-20% are normally seen as relatively safe. If the poll was right, surely the coalition would face a total meltdown, maybe down to 20 seats or fewer?

That said, it ain't over til it's over. John Howard has always struck me as being one of the shrewdest politicians in the business.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On that poll (and assuming uniform national swing) the Coalition would be left with just 19 seats (they have 87 now IIRC).
Howard himself would lose his seat; though boundary changes mean that that would be very likely on a much smaller swing.

[tik 🪀✨]

I heart Kevin Rudd; I hope this election sees broad changes.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I think that John Howard's Government will win a 5th term over Kevin Rudd's Australian Labor Party. In the traditional Howard way, the Prime Minister will come back from the dead and win. And as for John Howard losing his seat, it won't happen. The last time an Australian Prime Minister lost his seat was in 1929, when Nationalist Prime Minister, Stanley Melbourne Bruce lose thanks to the Great Depression.

I do think Kevin Rudd is the ALP's best leader since Bob Hawke. If Rudd loses the 2007 Federal Election (I guarentee it will be close), he is more than likely to win in 2010 over Peter Costello (hopefully not). I believe Kevin Rudd is the ALP's best chance of winning back the Lodge for many years. Now think about it, Beazley and Latham's numbers as prefered Prime Minister were low compared to Kevin Rudd's. And if either Latham or Beazley were still leader of the ALP, they would have no chance of winning in 2007.

[Platypus]

Basically, the government should have dumped Howard late last year. If they do it before the end of April, it gives Costello a chance to be a confirmed leader before an early December poll, perhaps.

There are numerous reasons why the ALP is leading the Coalition, but the three primary ones are: 1. People have a genuine dislike of Howard 2. People are totally sick of the government 3. Rudd and the ALP are tolerable, and in comparison amazing.

Iraq certainly doesn't help the Coalition, but Howard has been much less affected by it than Bush or Blair. Climate Change is also hurting Howard a lot; and he's not finding any real salvation in the economy which isn't showing the kind of numbers it did last time around.

That said, there is a very low chance of the ALP winning with 60% of the TPP vote. In fact, if they get over 42% of the primary vote, i'll be surprised. My guesstimate is a massive vote for third parties, leaning towards Labor, and a Labor win with something like 80 seats. Most of the gains will be made in Tasmania, South Australia and New South Wales; Queensland will continue to dissappoint the ALP.

Also, Beazley would probably be in a position that would lead to a close election anyway; Rudd just goes beyond that and makes it a likelyhood.

Re:Bennelong. It's got a lot of new, young groovesters over the last decade, but I think it's old demographics will win out at least for now.

Re: Deal with the devil. Anyone else here familiar with the term "Lazarus with a triple bypass"?

[Verily]

The ALP's crushing lead shows no signs of abating:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15157

First round:

Labor: 51.5% (nc)
Coalition: 34% (+1)
Greens: 7.5% (+0.5)
Family First: 2% (+0.5)
Democrats: 1.5% (-0.5)
One Nation: 1% (nc)

Second round:

Labor: 62% (+1.5)
Coalition: 38% (-1.5)

This is by Roy Morgan Research; Newspoll for The Australian is showing virtually identical numbers (61-39). Rudd also leads widely as the preferred Prime Minister over Howard, 49-36.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

You can never trust polls. This sort of thing has happened over the years. The Prime Minister has been trailing by 20 points in the polls, only to win comftably. Like Paul Keating in '93, many opinion polls and people thought he had no chance against thd Kennedyesque John Hewson. But then Keating came back from the dead and won in March. Though I'm no Howard or Liberal Party supporter, with the midus touch, little Johnny Howard will win in 2007

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Don't compare Hewson to Kennedy... good lord. The GST scared people silly - more people voted for Labor in 1998 when it came up again, and they made the biggest comeback after a landslide loss in history. It was only the massive majority the coalition had that saved them.

Anyway,

I have NEVER seen a consistent 61/39 TPP vote before. Something has changed.

1. Howard is now seen as; untrustworthy, arrogant and completely out of touch.

2. Rudd is not Beazley and he is not Latham. Beazley allowed Howard to control the agenda, Latham was a nutcase. Pretty much the Howard team tried the same character assassination ploy with Rudd... and it blew up in their faces. The people genuinely like Rudd and they don't like Howard spoiling the fun - the attacks on Latham just re-enforced  all the discomfort the electorate had with him in the first place.

Howard, who was once the coalition's biggest asset, is now its biggest liability. Howard should have stepped down last year. If the coalition want to win, they need to shove Howard off NOW!

Basically our electoral calendar is decided around APEC later this year. The election will be in August if Howard want to risk it... or it will be in November if he holds out for as long as possible.

Howard could scrape back - but Beazley was never as popular as Rudd and people are sick of this government - Labor now finally offers an alternative and they're running to them.

Two things will bring Howard down - Climate change and industrial relations laws. Iraq is not a huge issue... certainly not election deciding, but he's on the wrong side of that too.
------------------
As for Bennelong, this is a seat which is moving further and further away from the Liberal heartland seat it once was. It's moving west - and with that generally comes a laborising. After redistricting the margin is down to 3 or 4% TPP, which is very small. Labor wouldn't put such a high-profile candidate as McKew if they weren't going to throw the works at Howard. Every PM since Menzies has had a rock solid safe seat. It's certainly possible Howard could lose the seat. Not likely, but certainly possible.

One thing I guarantee you though, if the coalition loses the election - but Howard wins his seat back - Howard retires, the seat goes Labor in the bi-election.

I'm thinking a 53 - 47% TPP election result going to Labor. They'll have probably a 5-8 seat majority.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I was only comparing Hewson to JFK on his wealth and becoming Libs leader at a young age. Or in JFK's case President at 43. That's all.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gotcha.

[minionofmidas]

1. Howard is now seen as; untrustworthy, arrogant and completely out of touch.

The third one is quite the turnaround... the other two have pretty much always been there haven't they?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Certainly not. Howard's political survival over the past 11 years has been from quite astute reading of the political mood. He's never really been seen as arrogant before and certainly not untrustworthy.

There has a been a huge change... whatever people thought of the coalition... there's always been a certain begrudging respect for him... but now things are going bad for him too. Which hasn't happened often for Howard.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Excellent link: http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/guide1.shtml

[Verily]

Howard himself may lose his seat, or at least would if the election were held today:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15766

The ALP's massive lead continues. 60-40 in the last poll, from May 17.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15755

[Robespierre's Jaw]

The funny thing is that, the Australian people like the Government's budget and yet dosen't like the Liberal Government. Rudd is also leading Howard as prefered PM and also on the issue of Industrial Relations. Rudd has also promised if he is elected PM in this years election, he won't use tax-payers money to pay for political commericials. Insert shocking music!

[Platypus]

Basically, the government is on the nose. Howard is on the nose.

The ONLY way the liberals can win is if Labor stuffs up. Basically, Labor is seen as an alternative, and a better alternative, for the first time in a long time.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Basically, the government is on the nose. Howard is on the nose.

The ONLY way the liberals can win is if Labor stuffs up. Basically, Labor is seen as an alternative, and a better alternative, for the first time in a long time.

Your right, hughento. With the polls out today, how can the ALP stuff-up?  It's the first time in along time that the Labor opposition has a better alternative than the Government. If the ALP manage to stuff up in '07, in my mind the ALP will be in power by 2010, with Kevin Rudd at the helm.

[Platypus]

Well, the ALP is actually winning in parliament. If you're familiar with the Australian parliamentary system, that's unusual.

[Platypus]

We've had a newspoll today suggesting that Rudd's preffered PM numbers are down to Howard's level/Howard's are up to Rudd's level. This really surprises me, because I thought Labor's success in the polls was primarily anti-Howard sentiment. That support continues, but I am now inclined to think it is far less firm than I considered it before; positive support for an opposition hasn't won an Australian election in decades. If the voters are pro-ALP, and not anti-Coalition or anti-Howard, things are significantly more volatile and we could see a massive change between now and election day.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We've had a newspoll today suggesting that Rudd's preffered PM numbers are down to Howard's level/Howard's are up to Rudd's level. This really surprises me, because I thought Labor's success in the polls was primarily anti-Howard sentiment. That support continues, but I am now inclined to think it is far less firm than I considered it before; positive support for an opposition hasn't won an Australian election in decades. If the voters are pro-ALP, and not anti-Coalition or anti-Howard, things are significantly more volatile and we could see a massive change between now and election day.

There was NO way that the polls were going to remain the way they have been. The fact that Howard has only regained to still be behind (st. tie) Rudd still shows he's in a bad way. The TPP vote hasn't been any closer than 6 in the past 8 months - at this point in 2001 and 2004, the coalition was at MOST 4 points behind, but the latest has them 12 behind. I frankly think this is a case of sheer Howard/Coalition fatigue. They may not have any great issue with him, but they've been around too long, and things are not going that great for working Australians.