Polish Politics and Elections

[M0096]

Who actually votes for TD? I understand agrarianism in the post-communist 1990s context, but in most places these sorts of parties went away and their supporters went on to vote for what we would think of as "populists". Why did Polish agrarianism both survive and end up as part of the relatively 'liberal' coalition?

PSL is very similar to nordic Centre Parties. The electorate of that party is mostly "rural establishment" - large-scale farmers, local official, firefighters, etc. That party is major opposition to PiS in very rural areas, where any other opposition party not compete. PSL received much better results in local elections that in parliamentary ones and almost not exist in presidential elections. Poland 2050 is liberal alternative for KO, focus on environmentalism and issues important for younger voters. Both parts of TD gained also some suburban centre-right voters abandoned by KO.

[M0096]

Constituency no. 30 (Rybnik) fully reported: (...)

I'm shocked that both Senate seats (constituencies 72 & 73) within that constituency went to opposition.

[M0096]

To Konf, which is a very very bad thing, although my understanding is it shouldn't affect the center-to-left coalition math because German Minority wasn't picking sides. Right?

Galla has usually voted with opposition, but is not their official partner.
I think next time German Minority will run on PSL (or Third Way if they still exist) list like their Silesian friends.

[M0096]

Poland also had a PM with the name "Miller" a few years ago - sounds very English to me

Rajmund Miller (KO) was reelected in Opole constituency. Mamy polish people have German surnames.

Also former prime minister, now MEP has surname "Miller".

[M0096]

Opposition candidate Maciej Żywno also flipped Senate constituency 60 including Białystok.

[M0096]

Is this the first one that's outright flipped, in terms of first party/list in the constituency?

No, the first was 2nd (Wałbrzych) or 38th (Piła).

[M0096]

Constituency No. 1, Legnica, fully reporting. 34.80% PiS, 33.78% PO, 10.75% TD, 9.51% Lewica, 6.33% Konf. Topline in 2019 was 42-25, so this is a major lurch from PiS to PO.

Opposition also flipped all 3 Senate seats here (constituencies 1-3).

[M0096]

How much has the opposition expanded their majority in the Senate?

The only PiS Senator from Lower Silesia will be Aleksander Szwed from 5th constituency, who won by only 508 votes.
Opposition is going to net gain low teens of Senate seats.

[M0096]

Wow thats impressive! Doesn't the Senate not have much power though?

Senate veto could be overridden by simple majority of votes in Sejm, so Senate could only slow down legislation.

[M0096]

In Lesser Poland every Senate seat was held by their initial party, but constituencies 30 and 31 were very close.
30 - PiS won by 1,68% margin
31 - PiS won by 2,08% margin

[M0096]

https://twitter.com/broderly/status/1713950624377655313?s=20

He has almost twice as many votes as party leader Włodzimierz Czarzasty, who carpetbagged to that constituency. Constituency no. 32 is problably the most leftist one in Poland, so Left won 2 seats, but there was chance that leader of Left would not win reelection.

[M0096]

What is the breakdown in seats between Polska 2050 and PSL?

All elected to Sejm members of Third Way:

Polska 2050 - 33 seats:
2 - Aleksandra Leo
3 - Tomasz Zimoch, Izabela Bodnar
4 - Norbert Pietrykowski
5 - Marcin Skonieczka
6 - Joanna Mucha
7 - Sławomir Ćwik
8 - Maja Nowak
9 - Ewa Szymanowska
12 - Paweł Śliz
13 - Rafał Komarewicz
15 - Piotr Górnikiewicz
18 - Żaneta Cwalina-Śliwowska
19 - Michał Kobosko, Ryszard Petru
20 - Paweł Zalewski
21 - Adam Gomoła
22 - Bartosz Romowicz
23 - Elżbieta Burkiewicz
24 - Szymon Hołownia, Barbara Okuła
25 - Agnieszka Buczyńska
26 - Wioleta Tomczak
27 - Mirosław Suchoń
29 - Piotr Strach
30 - Łukasz Osmolak
31 - Michał Gramatyka
32 - Kamil Wnuk
33 - Rafał Kasprzyk
36 - Barbara Oliwiecka
37 - Paulina Hennig-Kloska
38 - Adam Luboński
39 - Ewa Schadler

PSL - 32 seats:
1 - Tadeusz Samborski
4 - Aleksandra Kłopotek
5 - Zbigniew Sosnowski
6 - Krzysztof Hetman
7 - Wiesław Różyński
8 - Stanisław Tomczyszyn
10 - Dariusz Klimczak
11 - Paweł Bejda, Jolanta Zięba-Gzik
13 - Ireneusz Raś (minor party Centrum dla Polski/Centre for Poland)
14 - Urszula Nowogórska
15 - Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz
16 - Piotr Zgorzelski, Mirosław Orliński
17 - Mirosław Maliszewski
18 - Marek Sawicki
19 - Władysław Teofil Bartoszewski
20 - Bożena Żelazowska
23 - Adam Dziedzic
24 - Stefan Krajewski
25 - Magdalena Sroka
26 - Marek Biernacki
28 - Henryk Kiepura
33 - Czesław Siekierski
34 - Zbigniew Ziejewski
35 - Urszula Pasławska
36 - Andrzej Grzyb
37 - Michał Pyrzyk
38 - Krzysztof Paszyk
39 - Jacek Tomczak (minor party Centrum dla Polski/Centre for Poland)
40 - Radosław Lubczyk (minor party Centrum dla Polski/Centre for Poland)
41 - Jarosław Rzepa

[M0096]

Where did you find this??

I prepared that manually. I searched people with the best results from Third Way list in every constituency.

[M0096]

Do the voters see which party the candidate they vote belongs to?

Ballot cards didn't show party of candidate, but official lists of candidates contained professions, localities of residence and parties of candidates.

[M0096]

Incumbent Sejm members who lost reelection:

PiS:
(1) Ewa Szymańska
(1) Stanisław Żuk (Kukiz'15)
(3) Przemysław Czarnecki
(4) Ewa Kozanecka
(5) Zbigniew Girzyński
(6) Krzysztof Głuchowski
(6) Leszek Kowalczyk
(6) Krzysztof Szulowski
(7) Monika Pawłowska
(7) Beata Strzałka
/8/ Jacek Kurzępa
/8/ Elżbieta Płonka
(9) Włodzimierz Tomaszewski (Partia Republikańska/Republican Party)
(10) Grzegorz Wojciechowski
(11) Tomasz Rzymkowski
(12) Krzysztof Kozik
(12) Marek Polak
(14) Anna Paluch
(14) Elżbieta Zielińska
(15) Piotr Sak (Suwerenna Polska/Sovereign Poland)
(16) Waldemar Olejniczak
(16) Rafał Romanowski
(17) Dariusz Bąk
(18) Iwona Kurowska
(19) Jarosław Krajewski
(19) Paweł Lisiecki
(20) Dariusz Olszewski (Suwerenna Polska/Sovereign Poland)
(20) Zdzisław Sipiera
(21) Violetta Porowska
(22) Adam Śnieżek
(23) Jerzy Paul
(23) Andrzej Szlachta
(24) Mieczysław Baszko (Partia Republikańska/Republican Party)
(25) Tadeusz Cymański
(27) Kazimierz Matuszny
(28) Mariusz Trepka
(29) Barbara Dziuk
(29) Jarosław Gonciarz
(30) Teresa Glenc
(31) Andrzej Sośnierz
(32) Danuta Nowicka
(33) Marek Kwitek
(34) Adam Ołdakowski
(35) Wojciech Kossakowski
(35) Jerzy Małecki
(36) Tomasz Ławniczak
(38) Zbigniew Ajchler
(39) Jadwiga Emilewicz
(41) Leszek Dobrzyński
(41) Michał Jach

KO:
(3) Krzysztof Mieszkowski (Nowoczesna/Modern)
(4) Magdalena Łośko (PO)
(5) Paweł Szramka (Dobry Ruch/Good Movement)
(7) Stanisław Żmijan (PO)
(9) Hanna Gill-Piątek
(9) Krzysztof Piątkowski (PO)
(9) Iwona Śledzińska-Katarasińska (PO)
(19) Paweł Poncyliusz
(20) Andrzej Rozenek
(21) Ryszard Wilczyński (PO)
(24) Eugeniusz Czykwin
(24) Robert Tyszkiewicz (PO)
(25) Jerzy Borowczak (PO)
(25) Małgorzata Chmiel (PO)
(26) Tadeusz Aziewicz (PO)
(29) Tomasz Olichwer (PO)
(35) Michał Wypij
(40) Piotr Zientarski (PO)

Third Way:
(3) Jacek Protasiewicz (UED)
(4) Dariusz Kurzawa (PSL)
(15) Stanisław Bukowiec
(19) Joanna Fabisiak
(26) Artur Dziambor (Wolnościowcy/Freedomers)

New Left:
(1) Robert Obaz
(2) Marek Dyduch
(4) Jan Szopiński
(10) Anita Sowińska
(13) Maciej Gdula
(20) Arkadiusz Iwaniak
(23) Wiesław Buż
(24) Paweł Krutul
(26) Marek Rutka
(27) Przemysław Koperski
(28) Zdzisław Wolski
(32) Rafał Adamczyk
(34) Monika Falej
(39) Katarzyna Kretkowska
(40) Małgorzata Prokop-Paczkowska

Konfederacja:
/8/ Krystian Kamiński
(18) Anna Siarkowska (Ruch Narodowy/National Movement)
(18) Dobromir Sośnierz (Wolnościowcy/Freedomers)
(20) Janusz Korwin-Mikke (Nowa Nadzieja/New Hope)
(25) Michał Urbaniak

German Minority:
(21) Ryszard Galla

[M0096]

Answer to Oliver's question:

I know the threshold for seats is 5% for a party and 8% for an alliance.  For the purposes of this rule are the Left, Third Way, and Confederation considered parties or alliances? I assume they are considered alliances.

It depends on the type of electoral committee they decide to participate as. They do not get that status automatically, they have to apply for it. There is whole procedure regulated by law, which specifies rules based on which various types of entities can participate in the elections. Types of those are regulated by the Electoral Code, and there are three of them:

1) komitet wyborczy partii politycznej (KW) - electoral committee (of a party)
2) koalicyjny komitet wyborczy (KKW) - electoral committee of a coalition
3) komitet wyborczy wyborców (KWW) - electoral committee of voters (note: this type of electoral committee is only one allowed to participate in presidential elections)

And now the fun begins, as technically coalitions can participate in the elections as an "ordinary" electoral committee of a party to have lower electoral threshold (The Left is basically doing that second elections in a row due to a trauma of 2015 elections). The main issue in that is that coalitions electoral committee are allowed to split the money from the state which every party after reaching 3% of votes for a party, and 6% for a coalition (so threshold minus 2pp). So, if coalition of the parties decide to run as one of them, and the rest is merely on the electoral lists only the party which is registering the committee will get the money, and this is only their good will if they will somehow, semi-legally share the money with them.  

As for these elections:

1) The Left which is in practice coalition of few parties (post-communist New Left, diem25ist Lewica Razem, and the minors: Unia Pracy, Polska Partia Socjalistyczna [for which I wasted too much of my life by the way] and Socjaldemokracja Polska) participate as party committee of the New Left. Razem basically were subdued by them, so I think in one or two parialemntary terms they will do the same as PvdA/GL, but on a smaller scale (Razem as for now basically has no structures, money etc.).

2) but also PiS decided to participate (again) in the elections as party electoral committee even while they are practically participating as coalition of Zjednoczona Prawica, with their satellites which they are governing Poland - obviously to keep them in check to do not give them too much independence, as their main and the most problematic ally, Suwerenna Polska (formerly Solidarna Polska) led by Minister of Justice Zbigniew Ziobro, was founded in 2011, after unsuccessful attempt to "reform PiS" (probably sideline Kaczyński) by the Ziobro himself.

3) as for the Byzantine-like and overly complicated structure of what Confederation is I would probably have to hire Khan Academy to explain that, because I am not sure if I am even properly understanding this dumbery of a structure. Basically, the closest thing to which I think we can compare Confederation is Dutch PVV. Main difference that there are multiple Geerts, which represents few other political parties, which are members of Confederation (but mainly the two of them - whatever at the moment is name of the Korwin party and nationalists from Ruch Narodowy) but generally do not have members but the leaders and their closest allies. There is so called Rada Liderów Konfederacji (Council of Leaders) who decides about stuff in Confederation. They claim that Konfederacja is "federational" political party, but on paper they are just ordinary political party (Polish law do not consider anything like as federational political party as a real thing) and they participate in the elections as party electoral committee (of a Confederation). But in reality they are more of a coalition than PiS or The Left even if formally not a one in the elections.

4) PO are again, as in the 2019 lenient and decided to participate as a coalition with their satellites so the satellites can get some pocket money to buy themselves something on their own, snacks and soft drinks or whatever.

5) Third Way is coalition, but there is also a twist - although they are technically a coalition of a two parties and they are splitting money 50:50, there are also other parties which have their representatives on their electoral lists.

[M0096]

Senate races (Senate Pact, PiS and other candidates who won over 15% of votes):

(1) NL - PiS - BS
Waldemar Witkowski vs Rafał Ślusarz (i) vs Kamil Barczyk
39,36% - 32,45% - 28,19%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(2) KO - PiS
Marcin Zawiła vs Krzysztof Mróz (i)
42,03% - 30,57%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(3) NL - PiS - BS
Małgorzata Sekuła-Szmajdzińska vs Dorota Czudowska (i) vs Tymoteusz Myrcha
38,37% - 36,30% - 15,38%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(4) KO - PiS
Agnieszka Kołacz-Leszczyńska (i) vs Renata Wierzbicka
58,68% - 31,62%
Senate Pact hold

(5) TD - PiS - ind.
Paweł Gancarz vs Aleksander Szwed (i) vs Andrzej Dyszewski
35,45% - 35,77% - 17,58%
PiS hold

(6) TD - PiS - BS
Kazimierz Ujazdowski vs Jarosław Obremski vs Michał Rado
48,68% - 33,86% - 17,51%
Senate Pact hold

(7) KO - PiS - BS
Grzegorz Schetyna vs Marcin Krzyżanowski vs Gaja Tyralska
61,21% - 22,38% - 16,41%
Senate Pact hold

/8/ KO - PiS
Barbara Zdrojewska (i) vs Małgorzata Calińska-Mayer
62,09% - 23,81%
Senate Pact hold

(9) KO - PiS
Andrzej Kobiak (i) vs Radosław Kempinski
58,31% - 28,71%
Senate Pact hold

(10) KO - PiS
Ryszard Brejza vs Mikołaj Bogdanowicz
44,06% - 35,06%
Senate Pact hold

(11) KO - PiS
Tomasz Lenz vs Maria Mazurkiewicz
66,98% - 33,02%
Senate Pact hold

(12) TD - PiS
Ryszard Bober (i) vs Józef Ramlau
51,00% - 34,16%
Senate Pact hold

(13) NL - PiS
Krzysztof Kukucki vs Józef Łyczak (i)
46,05% - 36,62%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(14) KO - PiS - Konf.
Jan Rajchel vs Stanisław Gogacz (i) vs Artur Pietras
32,01% - 52,82% - 15,17%
PiS hold

(15) NL - PiS - Konf.
Stanisław Mazur vs Grzegorz Czelej (i) vs Michał Wypych
31,63% - 52,50% - 15,87%
PiS hold

(16) TD - PiS
Jacek Trela vs Lech Sprawka
48,48% - 33,92%
Senate Pact hold

(17) TD - PiS
Marek Sulima vs Grzegorz Bierecki (i)
46,26% - 53,74%
PiS hold

(18) ind. - PiS - Konf.
Józef Zając (i) vs Kamila Grzywaczewska vs Jolanta Duda
44,09% - 40,61% - 15,31%
Senate Pact flip (compared to 2019 parliamentary election)

(19) KO - PiS
Marek Lipiec vs Jerzy Chróścikowski (i)
20,50% - 47,61%
PiS hold

(20) TD - PiS - BS
Mirosław Różański vs Grzegorz Maćkowiak vs Rafał Adamczak
59,15% - 24,79% - 16,06%
Senate Pact hold

(21) KO - BS (without PiS candidate)
Władysław Komarnicki (i) vs Tomasz Jaskuła
58,14% - 41,86%
Senate Pact hold

(22) ind. - PiS
Wadim Tyszkiewicz (i) vs Tomasz Kłosowski
67,95% - 32,05%
Senate Pact hold

(23) KO - PiS
Artur Dunin (i) vs Jan Tomaszewski
71,81% - 28,19%
Senate Pact hold

(24) ind. - PiS
Krzysztof Kwiatkowski (i) vs Piotr Adamczyk
59,90% - 29,48%
Senate Pact hold

(25) TD - PiS
Tadeusz Gajda vs Przemysław Błaszczyk (i)
34,18% - 46,84%
PiS hold

(26) NL - PiS
Marcin Karpiński vs Maciej Łuczak (i)
50,14% - 34,64%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(27) KO - PiS
Dorota Ryl vs Michał Seweryński (i)
40,18% - 45,47%
PiS hold

(28) TD - PiS
Marek Mazur vs Wiesław Dobkowski (i)
34,87% - 41,04%
PiS hold

(29) TD - PiS
Józef Matysiak vs Rafał Ambrozik (i)
30,26% - 46,28%
PiS hold

(30) TD - PiS
Krzysztof Klęczar vs Andrzej Pająk (i)
40,26% - 41,94%
PiS hold

(31) KO - PiS
Grzegorz Małodobry vs Marek Pęk (i)
41,85% - 43,93%
PiS hold

(32) KO - PiS
Jerzy Fedorowicz (i) vs Zbigniew Cichoń
67,06% - 32,94%
Senate Pact hold

(33) KO - PiS
Bogdan Klich (i) vs Mateusz Małodziński
70,90% - 29,10%
Senate Pact hold

(34) KO - PiS
Adam Korta vs Włodzimierz Bernacki (i)
35,16% - 46,42%
PiS hold

(35) TD - PiS
Stanisław Sorys vs Kazimierz Wiatr (i)
29,90% - 47,12%
PiS hold

(36) ind. - PiS - Konf.
Bogusław Waksmundzki vs Jan Hamerski (i) vs Krzysztof Chmura
28,22% - 54,14% - 17,64%
PiS hold

(37) TD - PiS
Stanisław Pasoń vs Wiktor Durlak (i)
27,57% - 52,71%
PiS hold

(38) TD - PiS
Waldemar Pawlak vs Marek Martynowski (i)
42,37% - 40,17%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(39) ind. - PiS
Jan Jackowski (i) vs Krzysztof Bieńkowski
41,88% - 47,25%
PiS hold (compared to 2019 parliamentary election)

(40) KO - PiS
Jolanta Hibner (i) vs Adam Lubiak
48,23% - 33,72%
Senate Pact hold

(41) TD - PiS
Michał Kamiński (i) vs Barbara Socha
53,44% - 29,36%
Senate Pact hold

(42) KO - PiS
Marek Borowski (i) vs Wojciech Zabłocki
69,72% - 30,28%
Senate Pact hold

(43) KO - PiS
Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska vs Alvin Gajadhur
74,70% - 25,30%
Senate Pact hold

(44) KO - PiS
Adam Bodnar vs Alicja Żebrowska
76,47% - 23,53%
Senate Pact hold

(45) NL - PiS
Magdalena Biejat vs Michał Grodzki
72,40% - 27,60%
Senate Pact hold

(46) TD - PiS
Grzegorz Nowosielski vs Robert Mamątow (i)
28,55% - 43,09%
PiS hold

(47) BS - PiS (without Senate Pact candidate)
Zbigniew Widelski vs Maciej Górski
48,89% - 51,11%
PiS hold

(48) TD - PiS
Krzysztof Borkowski vs Waldemar Kraska (i)
29,59% - 51,57%
PiS hold

(49) TD - PiS
Leszek Przybytniak vs Stanisław Karczewski (i)
40,19% - 51,78%
PiS hold

(50) TD - PiS
Cezary Brymora vs Wojciech Skurkiewicz (i)
35,48% - 47,96%
PiS hold

(51) KO - PiS
Tadeusz Jarmuziewicz vs Jerzy Czerwiński (i)
46,76% - 39,65%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(52) NL - PiS - German Minority
Piotr Woźniak vs Marcin Lorenc vs Henryk Lakwa
52,29% - 25,26% - 22,45%
Senate Pact hold

(53) KO - PiS - BS
Beniamin Godyla (i) vs Grzegorz Peczkis vs Herbert Czaja
50,40% - 30,77% - 18,83%
Senate Pact hold

(54) TD - PiS
Paweł Bartoszek vs Janina Sagatowska (i)
33,78% - 53,49%
PiS hold

(55) NL - PiS - Konf.
Marek Paprocki vs Zdzisław Pupa (i) vs Jacek Ćwięka
25,77% - 57,66% - 16,57%
PiS hold

(56) KO - PiS
Jolanta Kaźmierczak vs Józef Jodłowski
32,13% - 42,53%
PiS hold

(57) NL - PiS
Stanisław Szałajko vs Alicja Zając (i)
21,58% - 56,72%
PiS hold

(58) KO - PiS - BS
Adam Woś vs Mieczysław Golba (i) vs Włodzimierz Bodnar
24,30% - 49,20% - 15,82%
PiS hold

(59) TD - PiS
Cezary Cieślukowski vs Marek Komorowski (i)
38,44% - 48,25%
PiS hold

(60) TD - PiS
Maciej Żywno vs Mariusz Gromko (i)
49,58% - 37,72%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(61) KO - PiS
Sławomir Snarski vs Anna Bogucka
38,98% - 46,94%
PiS hold

(62) KO - PiS
Kazimierz Kleina (i) vs Samanta Nowińska
57,84% - 29,23%
Senate Pact hold

(63) NL - PiS
Anna Górska vs Dariusz Drelich
38,17% - 34,21%
Senate Pact hold

(64) KO - PiS
Sławomir Rybicki (i) vs Danuta Białooka-Kostanecka
73,16% - 26,84%
Senate Pact hold

(65) KO - PiS
Bogdan Borusewicz (i) vs Hubert Grzegorczyk
70,12% - 21,31%
Senate Pact hold

(66) KO - Ind. - Konf. (without PiS candidate)
Ryszard Świlski (i) vs Andrzej Kobylarz vs Dominik Mazur
56,91% - 26,51% - 16,58%
Senate Pact hold

(67) KO - PiS
Leszek Czarnobaj (i) vs Natalia Nitek-Płażyńska
52,56% - 30,44%
Senate Pact hold

(68) TD - PiS - Ind.
Krzysztof Smela vs Ryszard Majer (i) vs Jarosław Lasecki
29,17% - 36,07 - 18,96%
PiS hold

(69) NL - PiS
Wojciech Konieczny (i) vs Monika Pohorecka
49,44% - 30,30%
Senate Pact hold

(70) Ind. - PiS
Zygmunt Frankiewicz (i) vs Łukasz Chmielewski
67,67% - 32,22%
Senate Pact hold

(71) KO - Ind. (without PiS candidate)
Halina Bieda (i) vs Mariusz Wójtowicz
57,70% - 29,59%
Senate Pact hold

(72) KO - BS (BS candidate was deselected PiS incumbent, PiS nominee withdrawn)
Henryk Siedlaczek vs Ewa Gawęda (i)
39,30% - 37,92%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(73) TD - PiS
Piotr Masłowski vs Wojciech Piecha (i)
40,86% - 36,45%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(74) KO - PiS
Gabriela Morawska-Stanecka vs Danuta Sobczyk
47,75% - 29,99%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(75) Ind. - PiS
Andrzej Dziuba vs Piotr Czarnynoga
56,65% - 32,04%
Senate Pact hold

(76) KO - PiS
Beata Małecka-Libera (i) vs Arkadiusz Grabowski
52,37% - 31,27%
Senate Pact hold

(77) KO - PiS
Joanna Sekuła (i) vs Jacek Dudek
55,16% - 29,98%
Senate Pact hold

(78) KO - PiS
Agnieszka Gorgoń-Komor (i) vs Jan Chrząszcz
49,45% - 35,30%
Senate Pact hold

(79) NL - PiS
Konrad Gołota vs Andrzej Kalata
34,28% - 39,59%
PiS hold

(80) NL - PiS - Ind.
Maciej Kopiec vs Leszek Piechota vs Jerzy Markowski
51,50% - 27,18% - 21,33%
Senate Pact hold

(81) TD - PiS
Edmund Kaczmarek vs Jacek Włosowicz (i)
33,88% - 49,01%
PiS hold

(82) TD - PiS - ND-T
Piotr Dasios vs Jarosław Rusiecki (i) vs Marek Materek
29,52% - 39,47% - 21,77%
PiS hold

(83) NL - PiS - BS
Henryk Milcarz vs Krzysztof Słoń (i) vs Katarzyna Suchańska
29,96% - 40,04% - 15,50%
PiS hold

(84) KO - PiS
Jerzy Wcisła (i) vs Łukasz Kochan
57,04% - 34,79%
Senate Pact hold

(85) TD - PiS
Gustaw Brzezin vs Bogusława Orzechowska (i)
49,06% - 35,28%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(86) KO - PiS - Ind. (independent incumbent endorsed in 2019 by PiS)
Ewa Kaliszuk vs Zbigniew Purpurowicz vs Lidia Staroń (i)
43,78% - 16,87% - 31,10%
Senate Pact flip from Independent

(87) KO - PiS
Jolanta Piotrowska vs Małgorzata Kopiczko (i)
43,25% - 36,17%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(88) KO - PiS
Adam Szejnfeld (i) vs Janusz Kubiak
49,81% - 29,87%
Senate Pact hold

(89) TD - PiS
Jan Libicki (i) vs Danuta Nijaka
58,34% - 28,54%
Senate Pact hold

(90) KO - PiS
Waldy Dzikowski vs Dorota Barełkowska
75,07% - 24,93%
Senate Pact hold

(91) KO - PiS
Rafał Grupiński vs Ewa Jemielity
77,64% - 22,36%
Senate Pact hold

(92) TD - PiS
Grzegorz Fedorowicz vs Krzysztof Ostrowski
49,93% - 32,56%
Senate Pact hold

(93) TD - PiS
Anna Majda vs Leszek Galemba
39,02% - 44,06%
PiS hold

(94) KO - PiS
Wojciech Ziemniak (i) vs Dorota Słowińska
49,72% - 30,87%
Senate Pact hold

(95) KO - PiS
Ewa Matecka (i) vs Łukasz Mikołajczyk
44,43% - 36,98%
Senate Pact hold

(96) KO - PiS
Janusz Pęcherz (i) vs Andrzej Wojtyła
40,64% - 37,34%
Senate Pact hold

(97) KO - PiS
Tomasz Grodzki (i) vs Agnieszka Kurzawa
69,61% - 30,39%
Senate Pact hold

(98) KO - PiS
Magdalena Kochan (i) vs Halina Szymańska
62,90% - 37,10%
Senate Pact hold

(99) KO - PiS
Janusz Gromek (i) vs Barbara Aściukiewicz
55,58% - 32,65%
Senate Pact hold

(100) KO - PiS
Stanisław Gawłowski (i) vs Andrzej Jakubowski
42,50% - 26,08%
Senate Pact hold

Margins:
(1) Senate Pact 6,91% over PiS (flip)
(2) Senate Pact 11,46% over PiS (flip)
(3) Senate Pact 2,07% over PiS (flip)
(4) Senate Pact 27,06% over PiS
(5) PiS 0,32 over Senate Pact
(6) Senate Pact 14,78% over PiS
(7) Senate Pact 48,83% over PiS
/8/ Senate Pact 48,28% over PiS
(9) Senate Pact 29,60% over PiS
(10) Senate Pact 9,00% over PiS
(11) Senate Pact 33,96% over PiS
(12) Senate Pact 16,84% over PiS
(13) Senate Pact 9,43% over PiS (flip)
(14) PiS 20,81% over Senate Pact
(15) PiS 20,87% over Senate Pact
(16) Senate Pact 14,56% over PiS
(17) PiS 7,58% over Senate Pact
(18) Senate Pact 3,48% over PiS (flip compared to 2019 parliamentary election)
(19) PiS 27,11% over Senate Pact
(20) Senate Pact 34,36% over PiS
(21) Senate Pact 16,28% over BS (without PiS candidate)
(22) Senate Pact 35,90% over PiS
(23) Senate Pact 43,62% over PiS
(24) Senate Pact 30,42% over PiS
(25) PiS 12,66% over Senate Pact
(26) Senate Pact 15,50% over PiS (flip)
(27) PiS 5,29% over Senate Pact
(28) PiS 6,17% over Senate Pact
(29) PiS 16,02% over Senate Pact
(30) PiS 1,68% over Senate Pact
(31) PiS 2,08% over Senate Pact
(32) Senate Pact 34,12% over PiS
(33) Senate Pact 41,80% over PiS
(34) PiS 11,26% over Senate Pact
(35) PiS 17,22% over Senate Pact
(36) PiS 25,92% over Senate Pact
(37) PiS 25,14% over Senate Pact
(38) Senate Pact 2,20% over PiS (flip)
(39) PiS 5,37% over Senate Pact
(40) Senate Pact 14,51% over PiS
(41) Senate Pact 14,08% over PiS
(42) Senate Pact 39,44% over PiS
(43) Senate Pact 49,40% over PiS
(44) Senate Pact 52,94% over PiS
(45) Senate Pact 44,80% over PiS
(46) PiS 14,54% over Senate Pact
(47) PiS 2,22% over BS (without Senate Pact candidate)
(48) PiS 11,98% over Senate Pact
(49) PiS 11,59% over Senate Pact
(50) PiS 12,48% over Senate Pact
(51) Senate Pact 7,11% over PiS (flip)
(52) Senate Pact 27,03% over PiS
(53) Senate Pact 19,63% over PiS
(54) PiS 19,71% over Senate Pact
(55) PiS 31,89% over Senate Pact
(56) PiS 10,40% over Senate Pact
(57) PiS 25,14% over Senate Pact
(58) PiS 24,90% over Senate Pact
(59) PiS 9,81% over Senate Pact
(60) Senate Pact 11,86% over PiS (flip)
(61) PiS 7,96% over Senate Pact
(62) Senate Pact 28,61% over PiS
(63) Senate Pact 3,96% over PiS
(64) Senate Pact 46,32% over PiS
(65) Senate Pact 48,81% over PiS
(66) Senate Pact 30,40% over Independent (without PiS candidate)
(67) Senate Pact 22,12% over PiS
(68) PiS 6,90% over Senate Pact
(69) Senate Pact 19,14% over PiS
(70) Senate Pact 35,54% over PiS
(71) Senate Pact 28,11% over Independent (without PiS candidate)
(72) Senate Pact 1,42% over BS (without PiS candidate) (flip)
(73) Senate Pact 4,41% over PiS (flip)
(74) Senate Pact 17,76% over PiS (flip)
(75) Senate Pact 24,61% over PiS
(76) Senate Pact 21,10% over PiS
(77) Senate Pact 25,18% over PiS
(78) Senate Pact 14,15% over PiS
(79) PiS 5,31% over Senate Pact
(80) Senate Pact 24,32% over PiS
(81) PiS 15,13% over Senate Pact
(82) PiS 9,95% over Senate Pact
(83) PiS 10,08% over Senate Pact
(84) Senate Pact 22,25% over PiS
(85) Senate Pact 13,78% over PiS (flip)
(86) Senate Pact 12,68% over Independent (PiS candidate 3rd) (flip)
(87) Senate Pact 7,08% over PiS (flip)
(88) Senate Pact 19,94% over PiS
(89) Senate Pact 29,80% over PiS
(90) Senate Pact 50,14% over PiS
(91) Senate Pact 55,28% over PiS
(92) Senate Pact 17,37% over PiS
(93) PiS 5,04% over Senate Pact
(94) Senate Pact 18,85% over PiS
(95) Senate Pact 7,45% over PiS
(96) Senate Pact 3,30% over PiS
(97) Senate Pact 39,22% over PiS
(98) Senate Pact 25,80% over PiS
(99) Senate Pact 32,93% over PiS
(100) Senate Pact 16,42% over PiS

Margins below 5%:
(5) PiS 0,32 over Senate Pact
(72) Senate Pact 1,42% over BS (without PiS candidate) (flip)
(30) PiS 1,68% over Senate Pact
(3) Senate Pact 2,07% over PiS (flip)
(31) PiS 2,08% over Senate Pact
(38) Senate Pact 2,20% over PiS (flip)
(47) PiS 2,22% over BS (without Senate Pact candidate)
(96) Senate Pact 3,30% over PiS
(18) Senate Pact 3,48% over PiS (flip compared to 2019 parliamentary election)
(63) Senate Pact 3,96% over PiS
(73) Senate Pact 4,41% over PiS (flip)

Margins 5-10%:
(93) PiS 5,04% over Senate Pact
(27) PiS 5,29% over Senate Pact
(79) PiS 5,31% over Senate Pact
(39) PiS 5,37% over Senate Pact
(28) PiS 6,17% over Senate Pact
(68) PiS 6,90% over Senate Pact
(1) Senate Pact 6,91% over PiS (flip)
(87) Senate Pact 7,08% over PiS (flip)
(51) Senate Pact 7,11% over PiS (flip)
(95) Senate Pact 7,45% over PiS
(17) PiS 7,58% over Senate Pact
(61) PiS 7,96% over Senate Pact
(10) Senate Pact 9,00% over PiS
(13) Senate Pact 9,43% over PiS (flip)
(59) PiS 9,81% over Senate Pact
(82) PiS 9,95% over Senate Pact

[M0096]

Margins below 5%:
(5) PiS 0,32 over Senate Pact
(72) Senate Pact 1,42% over BS (without PiS candidate) (flip)
(30) PiS 1,68% over Senate Pact
(3) Senate Pact 2,07% over PiS (flip)
(31) PiS 2,08% over Senate Pact
(38) Senate Pact 2,20% over PiS (flip)
(47) PiS 2,22% over BS (without Senate Pact candidate)
(96) Senate Pact 3,30% over PiS
(18) Senate Pact 3,48% over PiS (flip compared to 2019 parliamentary election)
(63) Senate Pact 3,96% over PiS
(73) Senate Pact 4,41% over PiS (flip)

Nice work. I can complete the little map I am making.
The alliance did really well in close constituencies against incumbency, going 7/11 in close races.

If PO had cleaned up in Cracovia and Silesia and the Senate was sitting at 69-31, would the 2/3rds supermajority have tangibly helped?

5th constitency was the only one I predicted it would flip, but PiS held that seat. Split between Gancarz and Dyszewski was very bad.

30th, 31nd and 47th races were totally under the radar. These seats were usually PiS-strongholds.
30th constituency consists of very strong pro-PiS south-eastern part and swingy area closer to Upper Silesia. This time areas near Chrzanów and Oświęcim voted as strong for opposition like south-eastern part for PiS.
31st constituency was strong pro-PiS areas, but Cracow suburbs trended to opposition. The community constisting the biggest town in that constituency voted for PiS candidate, what is pretty strange fact.
When opposition candidate for 47th constituency failed to register, leaders of opposition said that's not a problem, because the constituency wouldn't be competitive. I think electoral tourism from Warsaw, which was usually large, made that constituency competitive.

[M0096]

Nonpartisan Local Government Activists (BS) is group of local opportunists from Lower Silesia. In almost every constituencies clear majority of their candidates carpetbagged from Lower Silesia. Their only ideology is localism and opportunism. "Democratic opposition" called them as "PiS-ian Troian horse", because they adopted ideology similar to opposition. The only Senator elected from BS in 2011 switched to PiS as quickly as possible. BS is also in coalition with PiS in Lower Silesia local government, where despite being smaller party they hold position of Marshal of Voivodeship (similar to Governor).

I think Nonpartisan Local Government Activists would join coalition with PiS, because they could offer them more than "democratic opposition".

[M0096]

Is there any discussion at all about how the coalition will handle the Presidential contest - aka running alone or together? Cause I have had a theory for a while that Hołownia wants to be the standard bearer of a united front. Him getting a role that rotates out in 2025 doesn't exactly discourage this speculation.

Donald Tusk said that single "democratic" candidate for President is very unlikely, because presidential candidate needs majority of votes to be elected. "Democratic" parties will use first round of presidential election as primary, because it's almost impossible not to make "democratic" candidate into run-off.

Hołownia's term as Marshal of Sejm expires on 13th November 2025, 3 months after start of new President's term. I think Hołownia will run for President, while holding office of Marshal of Sejm, but the most likely "democratic" candidate who would be in run-off is Warsaw mayor and 2020 presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski.

[M0096]

For Konfederacja the most likely presidential nominee would be Sławomir Mentzen (New Hope) or Krzysztof Bosak (National Movement, 2020 presidential nominee). There is risk that Konfederacja disintegrate before presidential election, then both Mentzen and Bosak would run.

PiS will hold leadership election next year. If Kaczyński retires, there is high probability of disintegration of PiS. I think Elżbieta Witek (Marshal of Sejm), Beata Szydło (former PM) and Mateusz Morawiecki (current PM) won't be PiS nominee. If PiS survives in its entirety, the most likely nominee is leader of PiS (when Kaczyński retires) or some young politician e.g. Waldemar Buda (Minister of Economic Development and Technology), Kacper Płażyński (member of Sejm from Pomerania) or Marcin Horała (deputy minister of Funds and Regional Policy). Zbigniew Ziobro (Minister of Justice and leader of Soveraign Poland) is likely nominee of far-right wing of PiS, in case PiS collapses.

[M0096]

Anything on immigration in the new coalition agreement?

Coalition agreement doesn't include anything about immigration.

[M0096]

Szymon Hołownia (leader of PL2050) elected Marshal of Sejm (speaker)

Szymon Hołownia - 266 votes (KO, PL2050, PSL, New Left, Konfederacja)
Elżbieta Witek (incumbent) - 193 votes (PiS)

[M0096]

Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska (former Marshal of Sejm) elected Marshal of Senate.

Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska (PO) - 66 votes (Senate Pact: KO, PL2050, PSL, New Left and Independents)
Marek Pęk (PiS) - 33 votes (PiS)

[M0096]

3 members of European Parliament were elected to Sejm.
Very few candidates are willing to take over their seats for half a year.

MEP elected to Sejm:
Zbigniew Kuźmiuk (PiS-ECR) - constituency no. 5 (Masovian voivodeship without Warsaw aglomeration)
Krzysztof Hetman (PSL-EPP) - constituency no. 8 (Lublin voivodeship)
Bartosz Arłukowicz (PO-EPP) - constituency no. 13 (Lubusz and West Pomerania voivodeships)

Constituency no. 5 PiS-list - 2 seats
Adam Bielan (incumbent)
Zbigniew Kuźmiuk (incumbent elected to Sejm)
Maria Koc (elected to Sejm)
Maciej Małecki (elected to Sejm)
Anna Kwiecień (elected to Sejm)
Arkadiusz Czartoryski (elected to Sejm)
Rafał Romanowski (likely new MEP; lost reelection to Sejm)

Constituency no. 8 KE-list (united opposition) - 1 seat
Krzysztof Hetman (incumbent elected to Sejm)
Joanna Mucha (elected to Sejm)
Riad Haidar (died on 25th May 2021)
Włodzimierz Karpiński (likely new MEP; https://brusselssignal.eu/2023/11/former-tusk-minister-jailed-for-corruption-set-to-be-freed-to-become-mep/)

Constituency no. 13 KE-list (united opposition) - 2 seats
Bartosz Arłukowicz (incumbent elected to Sejm)
Bogusław Liberadzki (incumbent)
Elżbieta Polak (elected to Sejm)
Jarosław Rzepa (elected to Sejm)
Jolanta Fedak (died on 31st December 2020)
Witold Pahl (likely new MEP)

PSL lost 1 seat and PO net gained 1 seat.