WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[Alben Barkley]

Likely R.

Should Democrats even help Manchin after all the crap he let them go through the past few years?

I hate to say it, but cut him loose. Not because he's betrayed us so many times, but because he has no chance and would only take money away from more winnable races.

Oh this is wonderful news! Manchin is now guaranteed to win re-election!!!

[Alben Barkley]

I'm just gonna say it: I think he can win again.

I think the Rs have completely and totally maxed out WV, and already had by 2016 for that matter. All the evidence points to this; there has just been a mild D trend there ever since. Manchin won in 2018 anyway. Does this mean he is definitely going to win again? No. But he is by no means out, and I'd actually give him better odds than I would have Tim Ryan earlier this year. People who think otherwise underestimate just how strong a brand Manchin is unto himself in West Virginia, and how strongly his popularity defies the odds (as it does for Beshear in KY; believe it or not such things actually still matter in this region). I actually think it might largely come down to the national environment: If it's a good year for Dems, he could win again. If a bad year, he probably goes down. But thinking of this race as Likely to Safe R is folly IMO.

[Alben Barkley]

I think Manchin could even beat Justice.

Seriously.

It's not enough to change my rating from Lean R at most.

Granted, it would be a LOT easier for Manchin in a non-presidential year. Especially if Trump is on the ballot, it will be quite hard for him to win. But Manchin has defied the odds for years. Betting completely against him now would be foolish. This is a soft Lean R for me. I think it's slightly more likely to flip than not, but by no means is Manchin "done." He absolutely can win and I wouldn't be surprised if Justice (who looks like his heart will give out any minute) doesn't or can't run and if it's Mooney or any other challenger? Well, my gut if not my brain (and my gut has proved smarter in recent years) tells me Manchin wins outright! He's just more "West Virginia" than those other challengers are, and believe it or not the people of West Virginia know and appreciate that fact.

I mean seriously, just think about it: In 2018, you had several Democratic incumbents in ostensibly "less red" states who got blown away. Manchin survived. In 2018, Trumpism was in full swing and was aimed against Manchin in maybe the Trumpiest state in the country. Manchin survived. If he wasn't gonna be beaten then, why would he now? West Virginia is not a state that's trending R; again, it's completely maxed out for the GOP. Conditions here are no more favorable for them now than in 2018. Literally the only reason to assume Manchin is dead in the water is increased presidential turnout of people voting for Trump/R Senate Candidate. If it's not Trump on the ballot, however? Or maybe even if it is if Manchin plays all his cards right? He can survive again!

[Alben Barkley]

This seat is gone even if Manchin's opponent is a cross between Roy Moore and OJ Simpson.

After Roy Moore himself lost in f--king Alabama, I don't know how anyone could say this with a straight face. It betrays a tragic misunderstanding of West Virginia politics. Manchin himself clearly still thinks he can win, btw, and he knows more about winning elections in West Virginia than probably anyone else alive. Underestimate him at your own peril.

Oh and for the record: Underestimate ME at your own peril, too. Especially when it comes to states in this region.

[Alben Barkley]

This seat is gone even if Manchin's opponent is a cross between Roy Moore and OJ Simpson.

After Roy Moore himself lost in f--king Alabama, I don't know how anyone could say this with a straight face. It betrays a tragic misunderstanding of West Virginia politics. Manchin himself clearly still thinks he can win, btw, and he knows more about winning elections in West Virginia than probably anyone else alive. Underestimate him at your own peril.

Oh and for the record: Underestimate ME at your own peril, too. Especially when it comes to states in this region.

I know you've posted more than this about Manchin's chances, but I'm still very unsure on how you really think Manchin has a chance.

He won by 3 in a blue wave year. In 2024, it'll be a presidential election year. WV has gotten a TON more polarised since then - the "ancestral D voters" who vote for Trump but support other Democrats, just as they are all over the country, are vanishing rapidly: just look at House of Delegates results - in 2018, Democrats won 41/100 seats, and lost the statewide PV by about 2 points; in 2020, 17 seats flipped red, leaving the Democrats with 24/100 seats (they lost the statewide PV by 18 points); and now this year, they won a mere 12/100 seats, and just over 30% of the statewide PV (it was R+39). Admittedly, there was a major change in the district boundaries during 2020 redistricting, since WV switched from multi-member districts to regular, single-member seats (on this count, I admit the WVGOP, which supported single-member districts was absolutely, 100% right - multi-member districts are only more confusing, unfair, and have a much greater potential for extreme gerrymandering), so it's not an exact comparison, but still. And Manchin's approvals may have been high in that one poll from earlier this year (or last year - don't remember), but I recall that in a more recent sample, they'd sank. Manchin's moderate act kept him afloat (and just barely) in 2018, and I do commend him on that - even in a blue wave, even with the 'ancestral D's' winning a national election in a Trump+42 state is a MASSIVE achievement, but now that act's not working anymore and all the ancestral Ds are gone. If Manchin runs, he loses by a lot. Especially against a genuinely good candidate like Jim Justice (if it's somebody like, say, Alex Mooney, who's much worse in quality, Manchin might have a chance - and even then, I'd say Likely R is being generous to Manchin - but with a candidate like Justice there is no realistic rating but Safe R).

The fact is that Manchin has never lost a race in West Virginia, and each time how he does it is a little different. 2018 was a "blue wave" in the House, sure, but a massacre for red state Dems in the Senate... except for Manchin. He always seems to find a way to win. And I just don't buy that West Virginia has changed for the benefit of the GOP statewide since 2018; on the whole it actually trended slightly D in 2020 and 2022 alike. And yeah, Manchin DOES have high approval ratings in his state, which don't count for nothing in this region. If Beshear loses next year, I will adjust my rating accordingly. If he wins, however? I will make it Tilt D, and I am dead serious. Unless there's a lot of other evidence and reason not to anyway. Manchin knows better than you or I how to win West Virginia, certainly you (no offense) all the way in California. He knows how to speak to these people. And if there is one lesson ANYONE -- ESPECIALLY OP! -- should have taken away from this election, it's that candidate quality MATTERS. A whole hell of a lot. It's how Gretchen Whitmer won by more in the 2022 non-red wave than she did in the 2018 "blue wave."

Yeah Manchin's facing a harder climb against Justice for that reason than against the others. But again, looks like Justice is about to keel over any minute. Almost seems like a reverse Fetterman vs. Oz thing, except Manchin is a much stronger candidate than Oz. It should at least give Manchin a fighting chance. There really is no good reason to believe the state is going to zoom far to the right of how it voted in 2018 is my ultimate point, UNLESS Trump is on the ballot perhaps. Which as of now I would bet against happening.

[Alben Barkley]

You know I'm kind of surprised he didn't see Beshear's performance, particularly his strength in Appalachia, and use it to continue to delude himself into thinking he still has a shot.

[Alben Barkley]

Timing of this announcement is interesting given the Dems' better-than-expected showing yesterday; he does have a way of peeing on his party's parade doesn't he?

Anyway this seat was almost certainly gone anyway with or without him so nothing really changes on the grand scale of things. Just an effortless flip for the R's next year; and they probably thought flipping LA-GOV this year was easy.

Definitely a state which has been doing overtime having any Democrats in statewide office for a while now.

It might actually help us as it will ensure zero resources go into the WV race that would be better spent elsewhere.

[Alben Barkley]

Timing of this announcement is interesting given the Dems' better-than-expected showing yesterday; he does have a way of peeing on his party's parade doesn't he?

Not really given that Beshear would have lost decisively with presidential turnout.

DDHQ estimates that 79% of Biden voters in 2020 turned out to vote, while only 53% of Trump voters voted in the 2023 Kentucky Governor election. Beshear’s ability to win over Trump voters has captured a lot of press, but many of them just sat this race out. This turnout gulf helped propel Beshear to victory, something he could not have achieved with persuasion alone. Without this substantial turnout advantage, Beshear would have lost handily.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/how-democrat-andy-beshear-won-re-election-in-deep-red-kentucky/

The math is takes to produce those numbers is actually insane. Pardon me if I don’t believe the Dairy Queen’s analysis that the Democratic statewide slate underperformed Biden substantially.

Yeah, I'm not denying that Beshear probably would have lost with presidential turnout, but it takes nothing from his insane achievement of doing 5 points better than he did in 2019, this time with an incumbent president of his party in office with a 33% approval rating in Kentucky, flipping several counties, and winning half the counties in Eastern Kentucky coal country that even just last year voted for a Republican-backed abortion ban. Some by huge margins. (This man did 45 POINTS better in Hal Rogers' district than Biden.)

Just because he didn't win with persuasion alone doesn't mean he didn't do a hell of a job persuading a hell of a lot of people to vote for him, including some who probably wouldn't vote for any other Democrat on the planet. And really, persuading your base to turn out in much higher numbers percentage-wise than the other party's base is itself an impressive form of persuasion, especially when the other party is so dominant in the state. And winning when a majority of the other party's base still turns out, while massively outperforming the rest of your party, makes it even more impressive.

They can spin all they want, but nothing they say can take away from this victory. For Christ's sake, Beshear got over 60% in Breathitt County. Floods or no, do you know how insane that is in 2023???